--- title: "Poser Luck case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Poser Luck ($355.50) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 9 items with odds, observed 63.16% over 54 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poser-luck rendered: 2026-11-11T18:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Poser Luck](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poser-luck) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Poser Luck A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poser-luck?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poser-luck?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poser-luck) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poser-luck?window=all) Price · $355.50 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $318.17 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 63.16% · 54 openings, odds method Variance · 10.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 30 openings · below min 30 days · 54 openings · below min since tracking started · 54 openings · below min -0.5% 99.8% 200.0% **Small sample.** 54 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poser-luck?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poser-luck?window=7d) | 30 | 85.80% ±113.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poser-luck) | 54 | 63.16% ±84.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poser-luck?window=all) | 54 | 63.16% ±84.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Rolex Datejust 36 16014 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-datejust-36-16014) | 1 in 100 | $7,900 | 24.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low Off-White (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-off-white-us-11) | 1 in 50 | $5,794 | 36.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× | | [Gucci Boutique Print Hooded Sweatshirt Off White (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gucci-boutique-print-hooded-sweatshirt-off-white-us-m) | 1 in 50 | $1,500 | 9.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Supreme Burberry Box Logo Tee White (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-burberry-box-logo-tee-white-us-l) | 1 in 20 | $630 | 9.9% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× | | [Fear of God Essentials Sweatshort Light Heather Oatmeal US S other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-essentials-sweatshort-light-heather-oatmeal-us-s) | 1 in 20 | $437 | 6.9% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [Fender FA-15 3/4 Scale Steel String Acoustic Guitar other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fender-fa-15-3-4-scale-steel-string-acoustic-guitar) | 1 in 20 | $255 | 4.0% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [RockLove Crystal Rose Janna Staff Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rocklove-crystal-rose-janna-staff-ring) | 20.0% | $85.00 | 5.3% | 15 | 10.8 | 1.39× | | [MILLA Heart Hoop Earrings other](https://gambatracker.com/items/milla-heart-hoop-earrings) | 30.0% | $25.00 | 2.4% | 13 | 16.2 | 0.80× | | [Rose Flower Silver Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rose-flower-silver-ring) | 30.0% | $9.00 | 0.8% | 15 | 16.2 | 0.93× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Nike Air Force 1 Low Off-White (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-off-white-us-11) Hidden $356 $5,794 16.30x 2026-11-10 08:32 UTC [Supreme Burberry Box Logo Tee White (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-burberry-box-logo-tee-white-us-l) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $356 $630 1.77x 2026-11-10 08:32 UTC [Supreme Burberry Box Logo Tee White (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-burberry-box-logo-tee-white-us-l) Hidden $356 $630 1.77x 2026-11-08 11:47 UTC [Supreme Burberry Box Logo Tee White (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-burberry-box-logo-tee-white-us-l) Hidden $356 $630 1.77x 2026-11-03 02:07 UTC [Supreme Burberry Box Logo Tee White (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-burberry-box-logo-tee-white-us-l) Hidden $356 $630 1.77x 2026-11-03 02:07 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=poser-luck) [Rose Flower Silver Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rose-flower-silver-ring) Hidden $356 $9.00 0.03x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC [Fear of God Essentials Sweatshort Light Heather Oatmeal US S other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-essentials-sweatshort-light-heather-oatmeal-us-s) Hidden $356 $437 1.23x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC [MILLA Heart Hoop Earrings other](https://gambatracker.com/items/milla-heart-hoop-earrings) Hidden $356 $25.00 0.07x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC [Rose Flower Silver Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rose-flower-silver-ring) Hidden $356 $9.00 0.03x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC [MILLA Heart Hoop Earrings other](https://gambatracker.com/items/milla-heart-hoop-earrings) Hidden $356 $25.00 0.07x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC [RockLove Crystal Rose Janna Staff Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rocklove-crystal-rose-janna-staff-ring) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $356 $85.00 0.24x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC [Fear of God Essentials Sweatshort Light Heather Oatmeal US S other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-essentials-sweatshort-light-heather-oatmeal-us-s) Hidden $356 $437 1.23x 2026-11-10 08:32 UTC [Fender FA-15 3/4 Scale Steel String Acoustic Guitar other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fender-fa-15-3-4-scale-steel-string-acoustic-guitar) Hidden $356 $255 0.72x 2026-11-10 08:32 UTC [MILLA Heart Hoop Earrings other](https://gambatracker.com/items/milla-heart-hoop-earrings) Hidden $356 $25.00 0.07x 2026-11-10 08:32 UTC [Nike Air Force 1 Low Off-White (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-off-white-us-11) Hidden $356 $5,794 16.30x 2026-11-10 08:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $356 | 89.50% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $5,794 (16.30x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt