---
title: "Poser case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Poser ($33.96) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 84.40% over 146 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poser
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Poser](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poser)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Poser

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poser?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poser?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poser) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poser?window=all)

Price · $33.96

Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $30.39 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.40% · 146 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 16 openings · below min

7 days · 71.08% ±38.60 122 openings

30 days · 84.40% ±35.29 146 openings

since tracking started · 84.40% ±35.29 146 openings

-0.5% 83.0% 166.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poser?window=24h) | 16 | 59.35% ±106.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poser?window=7d) | 122 | 71.08% ±38.6 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poser) | 146 | 84.40% ±35.3 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poser?window=all) | 146 | 84.40% ±35.3 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 146 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Supreme Flags Skateboard Deck Multi other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-flags-skateboard-deck-multi) | 1 in 200 | $750 | 12.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Saint Laurent Nuxx Chain Wallet in Nylon Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/saint-laurent-nuxx-chain-wallet-in-nylon-black) | 1 in 133 | $540 | 13.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [Vans Classic Slip-On VLT LX Lux Duct Tape Checkerboard US M 8.5 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vans-classic-slip-on-vlt-lx-lux-duct-tape-checkerboard-us-m-8-5) | 1 in 100 | $230 | 7.6% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.05× |
| [JBL FLIP 5 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jbl-flip-5) | 1 in 100 | $130 | 4.3% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [Thrasher Men's Sweatshirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/thrasher-mens-sweatshirt) | 1 in 33 | $90.00 | 8.9% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.91× |
| [Y2K Baggy Jeans other](https://gambatracker.com/items/y2k-baggy-jeans) | 1 in 20 | $47.00 | 7.7% | 11 | 7.3 | 1.51× |
| [Supreme Hav-A-Hank Bandanas (3 Pack) Multicolor other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-hav-a-hank-bandanas-3-pack-multicolor) | 1 in 20 | $44.55 | 7.3% | 3 | 7.3 | 0.41× |
| [Bluboon Vintage Backpack Leather Trim other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bluboon-vintage-backpack-leather-trim) | 1 in 20 | $36.00 | 5.9% | 5 | 7.3 | 0.68× |
| [Zippo Street Art Lighter other](https://gambatracker.com/items/zippo-street-art-lighter) | 1 in 20 | $26.00 | 4.3% | 12 | 7.3 | 1.64× |
| [Miabella Italian Solid 925 Sterling Silver 3.5mm Diamond Cut Cuban Link Curb Chain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/miabella-italian-solid-925-sterling-silver-3-5mm-diamond-cut-cuban-link-curb-chain) | 1 in 20 | $24.00 | 3.9% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.96× |
| [Grayce Nirvana™ in Utero Angel Splatter T-Shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/grayce-nirvana-in-utero-angel-splatter-t-shirt) | 1 in 13 | $20.00 | 4.9% | 9 | 11.0 | 0.82× |
| [Rock Cover Phone Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/rock-cover-phone-case) | 1 in 13 | $17.00 | 4.2% | 13 | 11.0 | 1.19× |
| [Retro Oval Sunglasses other](https://gambatracker.com/items/retro-oval-sunglasses) | 1 in 13 | $15.00 | 3.7% | 10 | 11.0 | 0.91× |
| [Pyramid America Metallica Poster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pyramid-america-metallica-poster) | 1 in 13 | $15.00 | 3.7% | 9 | 11.0 | 0.82× |
| [Hot Wheels Skate Tony Hawk Fingerboard & Removable Skate Shoes Multipack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-skate-tony-hawk-fingerboard-and-removable-skate-shoes-multipack) | 1 in 13 | $12.00 | 3.0% | 15 | 11.0 | 1.37× |
| [Retro Embroidered Applique Iron-on Patch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/retro-embroidered-applique-iron-on-patch) | 10.0% | $6.00 | 2.0% | 17 | 14.6 | 1.16× |
| [Ghost Hanger Skateboard Deck Display other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ghost-hanger-skateboard-deck-display) | 10.0% | $5.50 | 1.8% | 10 | 14.6 | 0.68× |
| [Sally Hansen Hard as Nails Color other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sally-hansen-hard-as-nails-color) | 11.3% | $3.00 | 1.1% | 17 | 16.4 | 1.04× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Supreme Flags Skateboard Deck Multi other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-flags-skateboard-deck-multi) Hidden $33.96 $750 22.08x 2026-11-03 02:54 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=poser)

[Ghost Hanger Skateboard Deck Display other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ghost-hanger-skateboard-deck-display) Hidden $33.96 $5.50 0.16x 2026-11-11 08:46 UTC

[Hot Wheels Skate Tony Hawk Fingerboard & Removable Skate Shoes Multipack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-skate-tony-hawk-fingerboard-and-removable-skate-shoes-multipack) Hidden $33.96 $12.00 0.35x 2026-11-11 08:46 UTC

[Retro Embroidered Applique Iron-on Patch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/retro-embroidered-applique-iron-on-patch) Hidden $33.96 $6.00 0.18x 2026-11-11 08:46 UTC

[Pyramid America Metallica Poster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pyramid-america-metallica-poster) Hidden $33.96 $15.00 0.44x 2026-11-11 08:46 UTC

[Rock Cover Phone Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/rock-cover-phone-case) Hidden $33.96 $17.00 0.50x 2026-11-11 08:46 UTC

[Retro Oval Sunglasses other](https://gambatracker.com/items/retro-oval-sunglasses) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $33.96 $15.00 0.44x 2026-11-11 08:46 UTC

[Pyramid America Metallica Poster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pyramid-america-metallica-poster) Hidden $33.96 $15.00 0.44x 2026-11-11 04:27 UTC

[Grayce Nirvana™ in Utero Angel Splatter T-Shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/grayce-nirvana-in-utero-angel-splatter-t-shirt) Hidden $33.96 $20.00 0.59x 2026-11-11 04:27 UTC

[Miabella Italian Solid 925 Sterling Silver 3.5mm Diamond Cut Cuban Link Curb Chain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/miabella-italian-solid-925-sterling-silver-3-5mm-diamond-cut-cuban-link-curb-chain) Hidden $33.96 $24.00 0.71x 2026-11-11 04:27 UTC

[Thrasher Men's Sweatshirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/thrasher-mens-sweatshirt) Hidden $33.96 $90.00 2.65x 2026-11-11 04:27 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $33.96 | 89.49% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $750 (22.08x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt