--- title: "Prada Show-off case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Prada Show-off ($469.41) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 125.79% over 24 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/prada-show-off rendered: 2026-11-11T19:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Prada Show-off](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/prada-show-off) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Prada Show-off A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/prada-show-off?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/prada-show-off?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/prada-show-off) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/prada-show-off?window=all) Price · $469.41 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $420.12 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 125.79% · 24 openings, odds method Variance · 9.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 24 openings · below min since tracking started · 24 openings · below min 3.5% 185.3% 367.0% **Small sample.** 24 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/prada-show-off?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/prada-show-off?window=7d) | 12 | 194.00% ±172.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/prada-show-off) | 24 | 125.79% ±121.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/prada-show-off?window=all) | 24 | 125.79% ±121.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Eternal Gold Snake Bracelet In Yellow Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/eternal-gold-snake-bracelet-in-yellow-gold) | 1 in 667 | $19K | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Cashmere and Silk Jacket Albino White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cashmere-and-silk-jacket-albino-white) | 1 in 500 | $11.9K | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Eternal Gold Medium Pendant Necklace in Yellow Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/eternal-gold-medium-pendant-necklace-in-yellow-gold) | 1 in 333 | $10.3K | 7.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Saffiano Leather Poker Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/saffiano-leather-poker-set) | 1 in 200 | $8,760 | 10.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Double Cashmere Throw Albino/Grey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/double-cashmere-throw-albino-grey) | 1 in 133 | $5,040 | 9.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Wool and Cashmere Cardigan with Patches Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wool-and-cashmere-cardigan-with-patches-black) | 1 in 133 | $4,620 | 8.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Cashmere Polo Shirt Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cashmere-polo-shirt-black) | 1 in 125 | $3,660 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Denim Cargo Jeans Navy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/denim-cargo-jeans-navy) | 1 in 100 | $2,460 | 5.9% | 2 | 0.2 | — | | [Short-Sleeved Cotton Shirt Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/short-sleeved-cotton-shirt-black) | 1 in 100 | $2,268 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Worn Bull-Denim Bermudas Natural other](https://gambatracker.com/items/worn-bull-denim-bermudas-natural) | 1 in 40 | $1,668 | 9.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Knit And Patent Leather Cap Violet/Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/knit-and-patent-leather-cap-violet-black) | 1 in 39 | $1,224 | 7.4% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [Saffiano Leather Card Holder Aviator Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/saffiano-leather-card-holder-aviator-blue) | 1 in 20 | $510 | 6.1% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× | | [Stainless Steel Cutlery Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stainless-steel-cutlery-set) | 1 in 13 | $245 | 4.4% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× | | [Prada Dimensions Eyeshadow Pulp other](https://gambatracker.com/items/prada-dimensions-eyeshadow-pulp) | 10.0% | $80.00 | 1.9% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× | | [Prada Blushing Care Lip Balm Astral Pink other](https://gambatracker.com/items/prada-blushing-care-lip-balm-astral-pink) | 12.5% | $50.00 | 1.5% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× | | [Prada Monochrome Hyper Matte Lipstick Rubino other](https://gambatracker.com/items/prada-monochrome-hyper-matte-lipstick-rubino) | 12.5% | $50.00 | 1.5% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | | [Prada Paper Gift Shopping Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/prada-paper-gift-shopping-bag) | 17.0% | $33.00 | 1.3% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.25× | | [Prada Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/prada-pin) | 25.0% | $5.00 | 0.3% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.17× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Wool and Cashmere Cardigan with Patches Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wool-and-cashmere-cardigan-with-patches-black) Hidden $469 $4,620 9.84x 2026-11-10 08:34 UTC [Denim Cargo Jeans Navy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/denim-cargo-jeans-navy) Hidden $469 $2,460 5.24x 2026-11-07 12:55 UTC [Denim Cargo Jeans Navy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/denim-cargo-jeans-navy) Hidden $469 $2,460 5.24x 2026-11-04 13:24 UTC [Knit And Patent Leather Cap Violet/Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/knit-and-patent-leather-cap-violet-black) Hidden $469 $1,224 2.61x 2026-11-10 08:34 UTC [Knit And Patent Leather Cap Violet/Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/knit-and-patent-leather-cap-violet-black) Hidden $469 $1,224 2.61x 2026-11-07 12:55 UTC [Saffiano Leather Card Holder Aviator Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/saffiano-leather-card-holder-aviator-blue) Hidden $469 $510 1.09x 2026-11-07 12:55 UTC [Saffiano Leather Card Holder Aviator Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/saffiano-leather-card-holder-aviator-blue) Hidden $469 $510 1.09x 2026-11-04 13:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=prada-show-off) [Prada Monochrome Hyper Matte Lipstick Rubino other](https://gambatracker.com/items/prada-monochrome-hyper-matte-lipstick-rubino) Hidden $469 $50.00 0.11x 2026-11-10 08:34 UTC [Wool and Cashmere Cardigan with Patches Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wool-and-cashmere-cardigan-with-patches-black) Hidden $469 $4,620 9.84x 2026-11-10 08:34 UTC [Knit And Patent Leather Cap Violet/Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/knit-and-patent-leather-cap-violet-black) Hidden $469 $1,224 2.61x 2026-11-10 08:34 UTC [Prada Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/prada-pin) Hidden $469 $5.00 0.01x 2026-11-10 08:34 UTC [Prada Monochrome Hyper Matte Lipstick Rubino other](https://gambatracker.com/items/prada-monochrome-hyper-matte-lipstick-rubino) Hidden $469 $50.00 0.11x 2026-11-10 08:34 UTC [Stainless Steel Cutlery Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stainless-steel-cutlery-set) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $469 $245 0.52x 2026-11-10 08:34 UTC [Knit And Patent Leather Cap Violet/Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/knit-and-patent-leather-cap-violet-black) Hidden $469 $1,224 2.61x 2026-11-07 12:55 UTC [Stainless Steel Cutlery Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stainless-steel-cutlery-set) Hidden $469 $245 0.52x 2026-11-07 12:55 UTC [Stainless Steel Cutlery Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stainless-steel-cutlery-set) Hidden $469 $245 0.52x 2026-11-07 12:55 UTC [Denim Cargo Jeans Navy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/denim-cargo-jeans-navy) Hidden $469 $2,460 5.24x 2026-11-07 12:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $469 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $4,620 (9.84x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt