--- title: "Private Collection case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Private Collection ($1,088.85) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 6.48% over 33 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/private-collection rendered: 2026-11-11T17:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Private Collection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/private-collection) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Private Collection A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/private-collection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/private-collection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/private-collection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/private-collection?window=all) Price · $1,088.85 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $974.51 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 6.48% · 33 openings, odds method Variance · 112.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 303 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 30 openings · below min 30 days · 33 openings · below min since tracking started · 33 openings · below min -0.5% 193.0% 386.5% **Small sample.** 33 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/private-collection?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/private-collection?window=7d) | 30 | 7.12% ±378.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/private-collection) | 33 | 6.48% ±361.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/private-collection?window=all) | 33 | 6.48% ±361.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 33 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [La Panthère de Cartier Watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/la-panthere-de-cartier-watch) | 1 in 909 | $215K | 24.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Reflection de Cartier watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/reflection-de-cartier-watch) | 1 in 909 | $178K | 20.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Cartier Panthère Jewelry Watch HPI01477 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-panthere-jewelry-watch-hpi01477) | 1 in 909 | $160K | 18.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Cartier Santions de cartier other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-santions-de-cartier) | 1 in 909 | $96.5K | 10.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [La Panthère de Cartier Bangle Watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/la-panthere-de-cartier-bangle-watch) | 1 in 833 | $68.2K | 8.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Cartier Santos De Cartier 40MM 18k 26.35ctw other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-santos-de-cartier-40mm-18k-26-35ctw) | 1 in 833 | $41.9K | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Panthère de Cartier watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/panthere-de-cartier-watch) | 1 in 833 | $30.6K | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Pasha de Cartier watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pasha-de-cartier-watch) | 1 in 833 | $22.2K | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Tank Louis Cartier watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tank-louis-cartier-watch) | 1 in 833 | $15.6K | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Cartier Eyewear Signature C de Cartier Precious rectangular sunglasses other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-eyewear-signature-c-de-cartier-precious-rectangular-sunglasses) | 1 in 833 | $10.9K | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Santos de Cartier Watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/santos-de-cartier-watch) | 1 in 833 | $8,400 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [PANTHERE DE CARTIER EARRINGS other](https://gambatracker.com/items/panthere-de-cartier-earrings) | 1 in 833 | $6,600 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Cartier CT0439S other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-ct0439s) | 1 in 833 | $4,351 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [JUSTE UN CLOU EARRINGS Cartier other](https://gambatracker.com/items/juste-un-clou-earrings-cartier) | 1 in 833 | $3,630 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Cartier Love Earrings other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-love-earrings) | 1 in 833 | $2,321 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [CARTIER D'AMOUR NECKLACE, SMALL MODEL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-damour-necklace-small-model) | 1 in 833 | $1,584 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [CARTIER D'AMOUR BRACELET XS other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-damour-bracelet-xs) | 1 in 833 | $960 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [1 Doge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-doge) | 98.0% | $0.22 | 0.0% | 32 | 32.3 | 0.99× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Cartier Love Earrings other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-love-earrings) [Arrrbaccos](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Arrrbaccos) $1,089 $2,321 2.13x 2026-11-05 14:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=private-collection) [1 Doge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-doge) Hidden $1,089 $0.22 0.00x 2026-11-06 10:37 UTC [1 Doge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-doge) Hidden $1,089 $0.22 0.00x 2026-11-06 10:37 UTC [1 Doge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-doge) Hidden $1,089 $0.22 0.00x 2026-11-06 10:37 UTC [1 Doge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-doge) Hidden $1,089 $0.22 0.00x 2026-11-06 10:37 UTC [1 Doge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-doge) Hidden $1,089 $0.22 0.00x 2026-11-06 10:37 UTC [1 Doge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-doge) [compgreenzzz](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/compgreenzzz) $1,089 $0.22 0.00x 2026-11-06 10:37 UTC [1 Doge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-doge) Hidden $1,089 $0.22 0.00x 2026-11-05 19:53 UTC [1 Doge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-doge) Hidden $1,089 $0.22 0.00x 2026-11-05 19:53 UTC [1 Doge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-doge) Hidden $1,089 $0.22 0.00x 2026-11-05 19:53 UTC [1 Doge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-doge) Hidden $1,089 $0.22 0.00x 2026-11-05 19:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,089 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $2,321 (2.13x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt