---
title: "PSA or Nay case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "PSA or Nay ($516.25) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 42.85% over 94 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/psa-or-nay
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:15Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [PSA or Nay](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/psa-or-nay)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · PSA or Nay

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/psa-or-nay?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/psa-or-nay?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/psa-or-nay) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/psa-or-nay?window=all)

Price · $516.25

Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $462.04 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 42.85% · 94 openings, odds method

Variance · 15.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 40 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 64 openings · below min

30 days · 94 openings · below min

since tracking started · 94 openings · below min

-0.5% 164.5% 329.5%

**Small sample.** 94 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/psa-or-nay?window=24h) | 6 | 17.28% ±311.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/psa-or-nay?window=7d) | 64 | 31.40% ±95.5 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/psa-or-nay) | 94 | 42.85% ±78.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/psa-or-nay?window=all) | 94 | 42.85% ±78.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 94 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Evolving Skies 6 Booster Box Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/evolving-skies-6-booster-box-case) | 1 in 120 | $20K | 35.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Limited Collection Master Battle Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/limited-collection-master-battle-set) | 1 in 120 | $7,700 | 13.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [2001 Pokemon Neo Discovery 1st Edition Holo Tyranitar #12 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2001-pokemon-neo-discovery-1st-edition-holo-tyranitar-12-psa-10-gem-mint) | 1 in 120 | $5,500 | 9.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [2004 Pokemon EX Fire Red Leaf Green Holo Blastoise Ex #104 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2004-pokemon-ex-fire-red-leaf-green-holo-blastoise-ex-104-psa-10-gem-mint) | 1 in 120 | $2,750 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Bearbrick Pokemon Pikachu Flocky 1000% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-pokemon-pikachu-flocky-1000) | 1 in 118 | $2,520 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Bulbasaur #44 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-bulbasaur-44-psa-10-gem-mint) | 1 in 120 | $2,370 | 4.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [Pokémon TCG 25th Anniversary Celebrations - Elite Trainer Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-tcg-25th-anniversary-celebrations-elite-trainer-box) | 1 in 13 | $445 | 7.2% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.85× |
| [Stormfront Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stormfront-booster) | 1 in 13 | $345 | 5.6% | 10 | 7.1 | 1.42× |
| [100 Thieves x Pokémon Pikachu Core T-shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-x-pokemon-pikachu-core-t-shirt) | 1 in 13 | $280 | 4.5% | 7 | 7.1 | 0.99× |
| [Pikachu 1999 Pokemon TCG Jungle 1st Edition #60 (PSA 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pikachu-1999-pokemon-tcg-jungle-1st-edition-60-psa-9) | 1 in 13 | $192 | 3.1% | 11 | 7.1 | 1.56× |
| [25th Anniversary Collection Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/25th-anniversary-collection-booster-box) | 1 in 13 | $88.90 | 1.4% | 12 | 7.1 | 1.70× |
| [Obsidian Flames Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/obsidian-flames-booster-box) | 1 in 13 | $85.00 | 1.4% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.85× |
| [Squishmallow Pokemon 20" Gengar Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallow-pokemon-20-gengar-plush) | 1 in 13 | $72.00 | 1.2% | 4 | 7.1 | 0.57× |
| [2022 Pokemon Sword & Shield Lost Origin Full Art Castform #TG11 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2022-pokemon-sword-and-shield-lost-origin-full-art-castform-tg11-psa-10-gem-mint) | 1 in 13 | $40.00 | 0.6% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.85× |
| [Surging Sparks Elite Trainer Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/surging-sparks-elite-trainer-box) | 1 in 13 | $34.99 | 0.6% | 4 | 7.1 | 0.57× |
| [Ruler of the Black Flame Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ruler-of-the-black-flame-booster-box) | 1 in 13 | $30.00 | 0.5% | 12 | 7.1 | 1.70× |
| [Pokémon GO: Snorlax Tin other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-go-snorlax-tin) | 1 in 13 | $11.00 | 0.2% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× |
| [My First Battle: Bulbasaur & Pikachu other](https://gambatracker.com/items/my-first-battle-bulbasaur-and-pikachu) | 12.5% | $6.20 | 0.2% | 6 | 11.8 | 0.51× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[2001 Pokemon Neo Discovery 1st Edition Holo Tyranitar #12 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2001-pokemon-neo-discovery-1st-edition-holo-tyranitar-12-psa-10-gem-mint) Hidden $516 $5,500 10.65x 2026-11-04 14:41 UTC

[1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Bulbasaur #44 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-bulbasaur-44-psa-10-gem-mint) Hidden $516 $2,370 4.59x 2026-11-06 06:33 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=psa-or-nay)

[Pikachu 1999 Pokemon TCG Jungle 1st Edition #60 (PSA 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pikachu-1999-pokemon-tcg-jungle-1st-edition-60-psa-9) Hidden $516 $192 0.37x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[Pokémon GO: Snorlax Tin other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-go-snorlax-tin) Hidden $516 $11.00 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[100 Thieves x Pokémon Pikachu Core T-shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-x-pokemon-pikachu-core-t-shirt) Hidden $516 $280 0.54x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[Surging Sparks Elite Trainer Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/surging-sparks-elite-trainer-box) Hidden $516 $34.99 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[My First Battle: Bulbasaur & Pikachu other](https://gambatracker.com/items/my-first-battle-bulbasaur-and-pikachu) Hidden $516 $6.20 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[Pokémon GO: Snorlax Tin other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-go-snorlax-tin) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $516 $11.00 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[100 Thieves x Pokémon Pikachu Core T-shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-x-pokemon-pikachu-core-t-shirt) Hidden $516 $280 0.54x 2026-11-09 17:55 UTC

[Pokémon GO: Snorlax Tin other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-go-snorlax-tin) Hidden $516 $11.00 0.02x 2026-11-09 17:55 UTC

[25th Anniversary Collection Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/25th-anniversary-collection-booster-box) Hidden $516 $88.90 0.17x 2026-11-09 17:55 UTC

[Stormfront Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stormfront-booster) Hidden $516 $345 0.67x 2026-11-09 17:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $516 | 89.50% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $5,500 (10.65x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt