--- title: "Radiant case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Radiant ($30.83) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.47% from 18 items with odds, observed 92.55% over 78 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/radiant rendered: 2026-11-11T18:54Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Radiant](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/radiant) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Radiant A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/radiant?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/radiant?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/radiant) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/radiant?window=all) Price · $30.83 Advertised RTP · 89.47% · EV $27.59 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.55% · 78 openings, odds method Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 77 openings · below min 30 days · 78 openings · below min since tracking started · 78 openings · below min -0.5% 70.5% 141.5% **Small sample.** 78 openings and 15.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/radiant?window=24h) | 12 | 62.71% ±77.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/radiant?window=7d) | 77 | 93.73% ±30.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/radiant) | 78 | 92.55% ±30.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/radiant?window=all) | 78 | 92.55% ±30.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 78 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Secretlab TITAN Evo - Jett Regular other](https://gambatracker.com/items/secretlab-titan-evo-jett-regular) | 1 in 500 | $750 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [VALORANT Phoenix Statue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-phoenix-statue) | 1 in 333 | $220 | 2.4% | 2 | 0.2 | — | | [VALORANT Iso Quarter Zip Detachable Jacket other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-iso-quarter-zip-detachable-jacket) | 1 in 200 | $170 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [VALORANT "Defy the Limits" Zip Hoodie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-defy-the-limits-zip-hoodie) | 1 in 100 | $130 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [VALORANT $100 Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-100-gift-card) | 1 in 100 | $100 | 3.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [VALORANT Stone Wash Hoodie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-stone-wash-hoodie) | 1 in 50 | $80.00 | 5.8% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [Wingman - Secretlab Memory Foam Lumbar Pillow - VALORANT Edition other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wingman-secretlab-memory-foam-lumbar-pillow-valorant-edition) | 1 in 50 | $72.00 | 5.2% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× | | [Tactibear Large Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tactibear-large-plush) | 1 in 33 | $72.00 | 7.8% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× | | [VALORANT $50 Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-50-gift-card) | 1 in 20 | $50.00 | 9.1% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× | | [VALORANT Dan the Penguin Cushion other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-dan-the-penguin-cushion) | 1 in 20 | $42.00 | 7.6% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× | | [Valorant Champion Karambit Knife Model 2022 Game Event Commemorative Gift Box Set (Gift Box - Set of 2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-champion-karambit-knife-model-2022-game-event-commemorative-gift-box-set-gift-box-set-of-2) | 1 in 20 | $36.00 | 6.5% | 7 | 3.9 | 1.79× | | [Yoru Comb Butterfly other](https://gambatracker.com/items/yoru-comb-butterfly) | 10.0% | $27.00 | 9.8% | 9 | 7.8 | 1.15× | | [VALORANT $25 Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-25-gift-card) | 10.0% | $25.00 | 9.1% | 13 | 7.8 | 1.67× | | [Pocket Sage Valorant T-Shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pocket-sage-valorant-t-shirt) | 10.0% | $20.00 | 7.3% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× | | [VALORANT Luna Buddy Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-luna-buddy-keychain) | 10.0% | $15.00 | 5.4% | 11 | 7.8 | 1.41× | | [VALORANT $10 Gift Card - PC other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-10-gift-card-pc) | 10.0% | $10.00 | 3.6% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× | | [VALORANT Fade XL Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-fade-xl-pin) | 10.0% | $9.00 | 3.3% | 4 | 7.8 | 0.51× | | [Riot Gun Buddy Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/riot-gun-buddy-keychain) | 15.0% | $0.50 | 0.3% | 9 | 11.7 | 0.77× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=radiant) [Valorant Champion Karambit Knife Model 2022 Game Event Commemorative Gift Box Set (Gift Box - Set of 2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-champion-karambit-knife-model-2022-game-event-commemorative-gift-box-set-gift-box-set-of-2) Hidden $30.83 $36.00 1.17x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC [VALORANT $10 Gift Card - PC other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-10-gift-card-pc) Hidden $30.83 $10.00 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC [VALORANT $25 Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-25-gift-card) Hidden $30.83 $25.00 0.81x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC [VALORANT $25 Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-25-gift-card) Hidden $30.83 $25.00 0.81x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC [Pocket Sage Valorant T-Shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pocket-sage-valorant-t-shirt) Hidden $30.83 $20.00 0.65x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC [VALORANT Luna Buddy Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-luna-buddy-keychain) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $30.83 $15.00 0.49x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC [VALORANT Fade XL Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-fade-xl-pin) Hidden $30.83 $9.00 0.29x 2026-11-11 08:26 UTC [VALORANT Dan the Penguin Cushion other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-dan-the-penguin-cushion) Hidden $30.83 $42.00 1.36x 2026-11-11 08:26 UTC [VALORANT $10 Gift Card - PC other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-10-gift-card-pc) Hidden $30.83 $10.00 0.32x 2026-11-11 08:26 UTC [VALORANT Luna Buddy Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-luna-buddy-keychain) Hidden $30.83 $15.00 0.49x 2026-11-11 08:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.83 | 89.47% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.47 on average: an expected loss of $10.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt