--- title: "Reality case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Reality ($57.34) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 49.91% over 126 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/reality rendered: 2026-11-11T16:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Reality](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/reality) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Reality A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/reality?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/reality?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/reality) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/reality?window=all) Price · $57.34 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $51.31 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 49.91% · 126 openings, odds method Variance · 25.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 74 openings · below min 30 days · 126 openings · below min since tracking started · 126 openings · below min -0.5% 220.8% 442.0% **Small sample.** 126 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/reality?window=24h) | 6 | 39.82% ±401.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/reality?window=7d) | 74 | 43.51% ±114.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/reality) | 126 | 49.91% ±87.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/reality?window=all) | 126 | 49.91% ±87.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 126 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Apple Vision Pro - 1TB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-vision-pro-1tb) | 1 in 500 | $4,600 | 17.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Apple Vision Pro - 256GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-vision-pro-256gb) | 1 in 500 | $3,849 | 15.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Meta Quest Pro other](https://gambatracker.com/items/meta-quest-pro) | 1 in 500 | $1,100 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Valve Index VR Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valve-index-vr-kit) | 1 in 500 | $1,099 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [ASUS Dual GeForce RTX™ 4070 White OC Edition 12GB GDDR6X other](https://gambatracker.com/items/asus-dual-geforce-rtx-4070-white-oc-edition-12gb-gddr6x) | 1 in 200 | $780 | 7.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Meta Quest 3 512GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/meta-quest-3-512gb) | 1 in 500 | $779 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Ray-Ban \| Meta Smart Glasses, Matte Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ray-ban-meta-smart-glasses-matte-black) | 1 in 200 | $396 | 3.9% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [Meta Quest Touch Pro Controllers other](https://gambatracker.com/items/meta-quest-touch-pro-controllers) | 1 in 100 | $350 | 6.8% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [Logitech G PRO X 2 Wireless Gaming Headset with 50mm Graphene Drivers other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-g-pro-x-2-wireless-gaming-headset-with-50mm-graphene-drivers) | 1 in 100 | $335 | 6.5% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× | | [Meta Quest 3 Charging Dock other](https://gambatracker.com/items/meta-quest-3-charging-dock) | 1 in 100 | $260 | 5.1% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.38× | | [Meta Quest Gift Card - $100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/meta-quest-gift-card-100) | 1 in 50 | $100 | 3.9% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.59× | | [Meta Quest Link Cable other](https://gambatracker.com/items/meta-quest-link-cable) | 1 in 50 | $99.00 | 3.9% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× | | [BOBOVR M2 Pro Battery Pack Head Strap other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bobovr-m2-pro-battery-pack-head-strap) | 1 in 33 | $55.00 | 3.2% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.59× | | [Beat Saber Meta Quest Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/beat-saber-meta-quest-gift-card) | 1 in 33 | $29.99 | 1.8% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.26× | | [Link Cable 16 FT Compatible with Meta/Oculus Quest 3, Quest2 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/link-cable-16-ft-compatible-with-meta-oculus-quest-3-quest2) | 1 in 20 | $25.00 | 2.4% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.95× | | [Meta Quest 2 Carrying Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/meta-quest-2-carrying-case) | 1 in 20 | $20.00 | 1.9% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.27× | | [Face Cover Pad for Oculus Quest 2 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/face-cover-pad-for-oculus-quest-2) | 1 in 20 | $17.00 | 1.7% | 5 | 6.3 | 0.79× | | [Microfiber Cleaning Cloths other](https://gambatracker.com/items/microfiber-cleaning-cloths) | 70.0% | $5.00 | 6.8% | 89 | 88.2 | 1.01× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=reality) [Meta Quest Gift Card - $100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/meta-quest-gift-card-100) Hidden $57.34 $100 1.74x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [Face Cover Pad for Oculus Quest 2 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/face-cover-pad-for-oculus-quest-2) Hidden $57.34 $17.00 0.30x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [Microfiber Cleaning Cloths other](https://gambatracker.com/items/microfiber-cleaning-cloths) Hidden $57.34 $5.00 0.09x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [Microfiber Cleaning Cloths other](https://gambatracker.com/items/microfiber-cleaning-cloths) Hidden $57.34 $5.00 0.09x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [Microfiber Cleaning Cloths other](https://gambatracker.com/items/microfiber-cleaning-cloths) Hidden $57.34 $5.00 0.09x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [Microfiber Cleaning Cloths other](https://gambatracker.com/items/microfiber-cleaning-cloths) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $57.34 $5.00 0.09x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [Microfiber Cleaning Cloths other](https://gambatracker.com/items/microfiber-cleaning-cloths) Hidden $57.34 $5.00 0.09x 2026-11-10 06:01 UTC [Microfiber Cleaning Cloths other](https://gambatracker.com/items/microfiber-cleaning-cloths) Hidden $57.34 $5.00 0.09x 2026-11-10 06:01 UTC [Microfiber Cleaning Cloths other](https://gambatracker.com/items/microfiber-cleaning-cloths) Hidden $57.34 $5.00 0.09x 2026-11-10 06:01 UTC [Microfiber Cleaning Cloths other](https://gambatracker.com/items/microfiber-cleaning-cloths) Hidden $57.34 $5.00 0.09x 2026-11-10 06:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $57.34 | 89.49% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt