--- title: "Renovation case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Renovation ($22.23) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.48% from 18 items with odds, observed 95.03% over 348 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/renovation rendered: 2026-11-11T14:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Renovation](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/renovation) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Renovation A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/renovation?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/renovation?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/renovation) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/renovation?window=all) Price · $22.23 Advertised RTP · 89.48% · EV $19.89 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.03% · 348 openings, odds method Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 22 openings · below min 7 days · 86.81% ±28.28 294 openings 30 days · 95.03% ±25.99 348 openings since tracking started · 95.03% ±25.99 348 openings 58.0% 205.5% 353.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/renovation?window=24h) | 22 | 248.93% ±103.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/renovation?window=7d) | 294 | 86.81% ±28.3 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/renovation) | 348 | 95.03% ±26.0 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/renovation?window=all) | 348 | 95.03% ±26.0 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 348 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Milwaukee 2729-20 M18 FUEL Cordless Lithium-Ion Deep Cut Band Saw other](https://gambatracker.com/items/milwaukee-2729-20-m18-fuel-cordless-lithium-ion-deep-cut-band-saw) | 1 in 143 | $530 | 18.7% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.23× | | [DEWALT 20V MAX Orbital Sander, Tool Only (DCW210B) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dewalt-20v-max-orbital-sander-tool-only-dcw210b) | 1 in 118 | $236 | 10.1% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.35× | | [Milwaukee 2904-20 12V 1/2" Hammer Drill/Driver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/milwaukee-2904-20-12v-1-2-hammer-drill-driver) | 1 in 100 | $215 | 10.8% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.44× | | [Milwaukee 2457-20 M12 Cordless 3/8" Lithium-Ion Ratchet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/milwaukee-2457-20-m12-cordless-3-8-lithium-ion-ratchet) | 1 in 100 | $120 | 6.0% | 1 | 3.5 | 0.29× | | [Milwaukee 3453-20 12V Fuel 1/4" Cordless Hex Impact Driver (Bare Tool) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/milwaukee-3453-20-12v-fuel-1-4-cordless-hex-impact-driver-bare-tool) | 1 in 100 | $97.00 | 4.9% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.72× | | [Purdy 140796018 Dual Roll-Off 5-Gallon Bucket, Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/purdy-140796018-dual-roll-off-5-gallon-bucket-black) | 1 in 50 | $60.00 | 6.0% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.01× | | [Vamos Tile 100-Piece Glossy Dolomite White Peel and Stick Backsplash other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vamos-tile-100-piece-glossy-dolomite-white-peel-and-stick-backsplash) | 1 in 50 | $52.00 | 5.2% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.72× | | [Pack of 2: All Purpose Canvas Drop Cloth other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pack-of-2-all-purpose-canvas-drop-cloth) | 1 in 40 | $49.00 | 6.2% | 11 | 8.7 | 1.26× | | [Stud Finder Wall Scanner Detector other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stud-finder-wall-scanner-detector) | 1 in 20 | $24.00 | 6.0% | 13 | 17.4 | 0.75× | | [Abyssaly 15.7" X 118" Gold Wallpaper Embossed Self Adhesive Peel and Stick other](https://gambatracker.com/items/abyssaly-15-7-x-118-gold-wallpaper-embossed-self-adhesive-peel-and-stick) | 1 in 17 | $21.50 | 6.4% | 20 | 20.7 | 0.97× | | [WORKPRO 12 Inch Torpedo Level other](https://gambatracker.com/items/workpro-12-inch-torpedo-level) | 1 in 13 | $16.00 | 6.0% | 17 | 26.1 | 0.65× | | [Wooster Brush R017-9 Sherlock Roller Frame, 9-Inch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wooster-brush-r017-9-sherlock-roller-frame-9-inch) | 1 in 13 | $10.00 | 3.8% | 22 | 26.1 | 0.84× | | [Gorilla Waterproof Caulk & Seal 100% Silicone Sealant, White, 10oz Cartridge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gorilla-waterproof-caulk-and-seal-100-silicone-sealant-white-10oz-cartridge) | 1 in 13 | $9.70 | 3.7% | 14 | 26.1 | 0.54× | | [Professional House Paint Brush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/professional-house-paint-brush) | 1 in 13 | $5.00 | 2.0% | 27 | 27.8 | 0.97× | | [Encore Plastics 01605 Promotional Pail, 5 Quart, Silver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/encore-plastics-01605-promotional-pail-5-quart-silver) | 10.0% | $4.48 | 2.3% | 35 | 34.8 | 1.01× | | [3x Sandpaper Sheets other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3x-sandpaper-sheets) | 12.5% | $1.70 | 1.1% | 50 | 43.5 | 1.15× | | [Painters Tape other](https://gambatracker.com/items/painters-tape) | 12.5% | $0.99 | 0.6% | 54 | 43.5 | 1.24× | | [Pile of Screws other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pile-of-screws) | 12.5% | $0.40 | 0.3% | 54 | 43.5 | 1.24× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Milwaukee 2729-20 M18 FUEL Cordless Lithium-Ion Deep Cut Band Saw other](https://gambatracker.com/items/milwaukee-2729-20-m18-fuel-cordless-lithium-ion-deep-cut-band-saw) [Vaniooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Vaniooo) $22.23 $530 23.84x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC [Milwaukee 2729-20 M18 FUEL Cordless Lithium-Ion Deep Cut Band Saw other](https://gambatracker.com/items/milwaukee-2729-20-m18-fuel-cordless-lithium-ion-deep-cut-band-saw) [Story Reaver](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Story%20Reaver) $22.23 $530 23.84x 2026-11-06 14:43 UTC [Milwaukee 2729-20 M18 FUEL Cordless Lithium-Ion Deep Cut Band Saw other](https://gambatracker.com/items/milwaukee-2729-20-m18-fuel-cordless-lithium-ion-deep-cut-band-saw) Hidden $22.23 $530 23.84x 2026-11-03 00:24 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=renovation) [Milwaukee 2904-20 12V 1/2" Hammer Drill/Driver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/milwaukee-2904-20-12v-1-2-hammer-drill-driver) Hidden $22.23 $215 9.67x 2026-11-11 08:20 UTC [Pile of Screws other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pile-of-screws) Hidden $22.23 $0.40 0.02x 2026-11-11 08:20 UTC [3x Sandpaper Sheets other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3x-sandpaper-sheets) Hidden $22.23 $1.70 0.08x 2026-11-11 08:20 UTC [Vamos Tile 100-Piece Glossy Dolomite White Peel and Stick Backsplash other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vamos-tile-100-piece-glossy-dolomite-white-peel-and-stick-backsplash) Hidden $22.23 $52.00 2.34x 2026-11-11 08:20 UTC [Abyssaly 15.7" X 118" Gold Wallpaper Embossed Self Adhesive Peel and Stick other](https://gambatracker.com/items/abyssaly-15-7-x-118-gold-wallpaper-embossed-self-adhesive-peel-and-stick) Hidden $22.23 $21.50 0.97x 2026-11-11 08:20 UTC [Milwaukee 3453-20 12V Fuel 1/4" Cordless Hex Impact Driver (Bare Tool) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/milwaukee-3453-20-12v-fuel-1-4-cordless-hex-impact-driver-bare-tool) [Vaniooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Vaniooo) $22.23 $97.00 4.36x 2026-11-11 08:20 UTC [DEWALT 20V MAX Orbital Sander, Tool Only (DCW210B) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dewalt-20v-max-orbital-sander-tool-only-dcw210b) Hidden $22.23 $236 10.62x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC [Painters Tape other](https://gambatracker.com/items/painters-tape) Hidden $22.23 $0.99 0.04x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC [Gorilla Waterproof Caulk & Seal 100% Silicone Sealant, White, 10oz Cartridge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gorilla-waterproof-caulk-and-seal-100-silicone-sealant-white-10oz-cartridge) Hidden $22.23 $9.70 0.44x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC [Painters Tape other](https://gambatracker.com/items/painters-tape) Hidden $22.23 $0.99 0.04x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $22.23 | 89.48% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $530 (23.84x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.48 on average: an expected loss of $10.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt