---
title: "Rolex case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Rolex ($3,753.70) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 17 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rolex-fanboy
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:54Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Rolex](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rolex-fanboy)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Rolex

A box on Cases.gg (Luxury), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rolex-fanboy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rolex-fanboy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rolex-fanboy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rolex-fanboy?window=all)

Price · $3,753.70

Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $3,359.56 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 4.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rolex-fanboy?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rolex-fanboy?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rolex-fanboy) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rolex-fanboy?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Rolex Daytona Stainless Steel White Dial other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-daytona-stainless-steel-white-dial) | 1 in 200 | $40K | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Rolex Yacht-Master 42 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-yacht-master-42) | 1 in 167 | $36.3K | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Rolex Sky-Dweller with Mint Green Dial other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-sky-dweller-with-mint-green-dial) | 1 in 125 | $33K | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Rolex GMT-Master II Pepsi other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-gmt-master-ii-pepsi) | 1 in 111 | $30K | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Rolex GMT-Master II Rose Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-gmt-master-ii-rose-gold) | 1 in 100 | $23.2K | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Rolex Datejust 36 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-datejust-36) | 1 in 91 | $22.9K | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Rolex Sea-Dweller Deepsea 136660 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-sea-dweller-deepsea-136660) | 1 in 87 | $21.8K | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Rolex Oyster Perpetual 36 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-oyster-perpetual-36) | 1 in 83 | $17.3K | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Rolex Submariner Date other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-submariner-date) | 1 in 77 | $17K | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Rolex Milgauss other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-milgauss) | 1 in 67 | $16K | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Rolex Datejust 36 126200 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-datejust-36-126200) | 1 in 63 | $11.7K | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Rolex Oyster Perpetual 41 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-oyster-perpetual-41) | 1 in 50 | $11.6K | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Rolex Datejust 36 16014 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-datejust-36-16014) | 1 in 25 | $7,900 | 9.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Rolex Daytona Black Arabic Racing Dial other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-daytona-black-arabic-racing-dial) | 1 in 13 | $1,265 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Rolex Datejust Oyster link other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-datejust-oyster-link) | 12.0% | $420 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Rolex Brown Travel Pouch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-brown-travel-pouch) | 25.0% | $335 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Authentic Rolex Dealer display Green Gloves (Size M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/authentic-rolex-dealer-display-green-gloves-size-m) | 37.4% | $94.00 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=rolex-fanboy)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3,754 | 89.50% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt