--- title: "Rose case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Rose ($295.25) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 19 items with odds, observed 73.71% over 252 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rose rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Rose](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rose) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Rose A box on Cases.gg (Luxury), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rose?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rose?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rose) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rose?window=all) Price · $295.25 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $264.24 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 73.71% · 252 openings, odds method Variance · 98.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 54 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 242 openings · below min 30 days · 252 openings · below min since tracking started · 252 openings · below min -0.5% 99.5% 199.5% **Small sample.** 252 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rose?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rose?window=7d) | 242 | 74.06% ±124.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rose) | 252 | 73.71% ±122.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rose?window=all) | 252 | 73.71% ±122.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 252 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712/1R Moon Phases Full Rose Gold (New Model) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/patek-philippe-nautilus-5712-1r-moon-phases-full-rose-gold-new-model) | 1 in 10,000 | $226K | 8.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Patek Philippe Aquanaut 5167R-001 Rose Gold Brown New 2021 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/patek-philippe-aquanaut-5167r-001-rose-gold-brown-new-2021) | 1 in 10,000 | $99K | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Selfwinding 15400OR.OO.1220OR.02 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/audemars-piguet-royal-oak-selfwinding-15400or-oo-1220or-02) | 1 in 10,000 | $88K | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [18MM MIAMI CUBAN DIAMOND NECKLACE 14K SOLID GOLD 37.00CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/18mm-miami-cuban-diamond-necklace-14k-solid-gold-37-00ctw) | 1 in 10,000 | $72.6K | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [PATEK PHILIPPE - TWENTY~4 - 7300/1201R-010 - ROSE GOLD other](https://gambatracker.com/items/patek-philippe-twenty-4-7300-1201r-010-rose-gold) | 1 in 10,000 | $46.5K | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SUPER DOLLAR DIAMOND RING 14K SOLID GOLD 9.25CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/super-dollar-diamond-ring-14k-solid-gold-9-25ctw) | 1 in 5,000 | $27.5K | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [13PT CROWN SET DIAMOND BRACELET 14K SOLID GOLD 6.75CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/13pt-crown-set-diamond-bracelet-14k-solid-gold-6-75ctw) | 1 in 3,333 | $19.3K | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [16MM MIAMI CUBAN - 14K SOLID GOLD BRACELET other](https://gambatracker.com/items/16mm-miami-cuban-14k-solid-gold-bracelet) | 1 in 3,333 | $18.6K | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [FULL DIAMOND ETERNITY DIAMOND BANGLE 14K SOLID GOLD 6.05CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/full-diamond-eternity-diamond-bangle-14k-solid-gold-6-05ctw) | 1 in 2,000 | $14.6K | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [DRIP DIAMOND BANGLE 14K SOLID GOLD 5.50CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/drip-diamond-bangle-14k-solid-gold-5-50ctw) | 1 in 1,429 | $13.2K | 3.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [SMALL NAIL DIAMOND BANGLE 14K SOLID GOLD 2.75CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/small-nail-diamond-bangle-14k-solid-gold-2-75ctw) | 1 in 1,000 | $8,250 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [JAGGED RAISED CUBAN DIAMOND RING 14K SOLID GOLD 2.40CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jagged-raised-cuban-diamond-ring-14k-solid-gold-2-40ctw) | 1 in 667 | $6,050 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [WEED LEAF DIAMOND PENDANT 14K SOLID GOLD 1.60CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/weed-leaf-diamond-pendant-14k-solid-gold-1-60ctw) | 1 in 400 | $4,400 | 4.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [ICEBOX DIAMOND BEZEL FOR 36MM ROLEX 14K SOLID GOLD 2.50CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/icebox-diamond-bezel-for-36mm-rolex-14k-solid-gold-2-50ctw) | 1 in 250 | $4,125 | 6.2% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.99× | | [CASINO SLOT MACHINE DIAMOND PENDANT 14K SOLID GOLD 0.66CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casino-slot-machine-diamond-pendant-14k-solid-gold-0-66ctw) | 1 in 143 | $3,108 | 8.2% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.70× | | [US DOLLAR SIGN DIAMOND PENDANT 14K SOLID GOLD 0.25CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/us-dollar-sign-diamond-pendant-14k-solid-gold-0-25ctw) | 1 in 100 | $1,925 | 7.3% | 5 | 2.5 | 1.98× | | [DIAMOND HUGGIE HOOPS SOLID GOLD 14K .50CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/diamond-huggie-hoops-solid-gold-14k-50ctw) | 1 in 47 | $1,458 | 11.9% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.55× | | [ICEBOX PATTERN TRIANGULATION BAND 14K SOLID GOLD other](https://gambatracker.com/items/icebox-pattern-triangulation-band-14k-solid-gold) | 1 in 20 | $1,210 | 22.9% | 14 | 12.6 | 1.11× | | [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) | 90.0% | $0.01 | 0.0% | 224 | 226.8 | 0.99× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [JAGGED RAISED CUBAN DIAMOND RING 14K SOLID GOLD 2.40CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jagged-raised-cuban-diamond-ring-14k-solid-gold-2-40ctw) Hidden $295 $6,050 20.49x 2026-11-07 17:11 UTC [WEED LEAF DIAMOND PENDANT 14K SOLID GOLD 1.60CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/weed-leaf-diamond-pendant-14k-solid-gold-1-60ctw) Hidden $295 $4,400 14.90x 2026-11-07 13:11 UTC [ICEBOX DIAMOND BEZEL FOR 36MM ROLEX 14K SOLID GOLD 2.50CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/icebox-diamond-bezel-for-36mm-rolex-14k-solid-gold-2-50ctw) Hidden $295 $4,125 13.97x 2026-11-06 07:49 UTC [CASINO SLOT MACHINE DIAMOND PENDANT 14K SOLID GOLD 0.66CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casino-slot-machine-diamond-pendant-14k-solid-gold-0-66ctw) Hidden $295 $3,108 10.53x 2026-11-06 06:20 UTC [CASINO SLOT MACHINE DIAMOND PENDANT 14K SOLID GOLD 0.66CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casino-slot-machine-diamond-pendant-14k-solid-gold-0-66ctw) Hidden $295 $3,108 10.53x 2026-11-05 15:21 UTC [CASINO SLOT MACHINE DIAMOND PENDANT 14K SOLID GOLD 0.66CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casino-slot-machine-diamond-pendant-14k-solid-gold-0-66ctw) Hidden $295 $3,108 10.53x 2026-11-05 14:13 UTC [US DOLLAR SIGN DIAMOND PENDANT 14K SOLID GOLD 0.25CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/us-dollar-sign-diamond-pendant-14k-solid-gold-0-25ctw) [KICK/JUSTSAN666](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/KICK%2FJUSTSAN666) $295 $1,925 6.52x 2026-11-09 19:40 UTC [US DOLLAR SIGN DIAMOND PENDANT 14K SOLID GOLD 0.25CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/us-dollar-sign-diamond-pendant-14k-solid-gold-0-25ctw) Hidden $295 $1,925 6.52x 2026-11-06 07:46 UTC [US DOLLAR SIGN DIAMOND PENDANT 14K SOLID GOLD 0.25CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/us-dollar-sign-diamond-pendant-14k-solid-gold-0-25ctw) Hidden $295 $1,925 6.52x 2026-11-06 07:46 UTC [US DOLLAR SIGN DIAMOND PENDANT 14K SOLID GOLD 0.25CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/us-dollar-sign-diamond-pendant-14k-solid-gold-0-25ctw) Hidden $295 $1,925 6.52x 2026-11-06 07:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=rose) [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $295 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:40 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $295 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:40 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $295 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:40 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $295 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:40 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $295 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:40 UTC [US DOLLAR SIGN DIAMOND PENDANT 14K SOLID GOLD 0.25CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/us-dollar-sign-diamond-pendant-14k-solid-gold-0-25ctw) [KICK/JUSTSAN666](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/KICK%2FJUSTSAN666) $295 $1,925 6.52x 2026-11-09 19:40 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $295 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:39 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $295 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:39 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $295 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:39 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $295 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $295 | 89.50% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $6,050 (20.49x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt