--- title: "Rusty case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Rusty ($28.57) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.48% from 18 items with odds, observed 85.16% over 276 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rusty rendered: 2026-11-11T22:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Rusty](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rusty) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Rusty A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rusty?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rusty?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rusty) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rusty?window=all) Price · $28.57 Advertised RTP · 89.48% · EV $25.56 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.16% · 276 openings, odds method Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 78.11% ±31.64 192 openings 30 days · 85.16% ±26.39 276 openings since tracking started · 85.16% ±26.39 276 openings -0.5% 78.3% 157.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rusty?window=24h) | 16 | 46.60% ±109.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rusty?window=7d) | 192 | 78.11% ±31.6 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rusty) | 276 | 85.16% ±26.4 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/rusty?window=all) | 276 | 85.16% ±26.4 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 276 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Rust M249 Frost Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-m249-frost-prop) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,157 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Rust Alien Red AK Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-alien-red-ak-prop) | 1 in 400 | $350 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Rust Tempered MP5 Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-tempered-mp5-prop) | 1 in 400 | $350 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Rust Default Double Barrel Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-default-double-barrel-prop) | 1 in 400 | $350 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Rust Bchillz SAR Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-bchillz-sar-prop) | 1 in 400 | $345 | 3.4% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [Rust Alien Relic SMG Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-alien-relic-smg-prop) | 1 in 200 | $290 | 5.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [Rust Default Bolt Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-default-bolt-prop) | 1 in 200 | $270 | 5.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [Rust Throat Rock Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-throat-rock-prop) | 1 in 200 | $225 | 4.4% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.45× | | [Rust Default Thompson Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-default-thompson-prop) | 1 in 200 | $225 | 4.4% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.90× | | [Rust Default AK Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-default-ak-prop) | 1 in 200 | $199 | 3.9% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.17× | | [Rust Big Grin Facemask Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-big-grin-facemask-prop) | 1 in 200 | $185 | 3.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× | | [Rust Default Hammer Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-default-hammer-prop) | 1 in 200 | $170 | 3.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [Rust Default Pyhton Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-default-pyhton-prop) | 1 in 133 | $135 | 4.0% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.45× | | [Rust Banana Eoka Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-banana-eoka-prop) | 1 in 133 | $110 | 3.2% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× | | [Rust Furnace Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-furnace-prop) | 12.5% | $20.00 | 9.8% | 20 | 34.5 | 0.58× | | [Rust Pure Ore Tea Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-pure-ore-tea-prop) | 25.0% | $15.00 | 14.7% | 80 | 69.0 | 1.16× | | [Full Gear Metal Sign other](https://gambatracker.com/items/full-gear-metal-sign) | 25.0% | $10.00 | 9.8% | 78 | 69.0 | 1.13× | | [Hazzy Metal Sign other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hazzy-metal-sign) | 31.4% | $8.00 | 9.8% | 81 | 86.7 | 0.93× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=rusty) [Rust Pure Ore Tea Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-pure-ore-tea-prop) Hidden $28.57 $15.00 0.53x 2026-11-11 08:24 UTC [Rust Furnace Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-furnace-prop) Hidden $28.57 $20.00 0.70x 2026-11-11 08:24 UTC [Full Gear Metal Sign other](https://gambatracker.com/items/full-gear-metal-sign) Hidden $28.57 $10.00 0.35x 2026-11-11 08:24 UTC [Hazzy Metal Sign other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hazzy-metal-sign) Hidden $28.57 $8.00 0.28x 2026-11-11 08:24 UTC [Full Gear Metal Sign other](https://gambatracker.com/items/full-gear-metal-sign) Hidden $28.57 $10.00 0.35x 2026-11-11 08:24 UTC [Rust Pure Ore Tea Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-pure-ore-tea-prop) [Vaniooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Vaniooo) $28.57 $15.00 0.53x 2026-11-11 08:24 UTC [Rust Pure Ore Tea Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-pure-ore-tea-prop) Hidden $28.57 $15.00 0.53x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC [Full Gear Metal Sign other](https://gambatracker.com/items/full-gear-metal-sign) Hidden $28.57 $10.00 0.35x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC [Full Gear Metal Sign other](https://gambatracker.com/items/full-gear-metal-sign) Hidden $28.57 $10.00 0.35x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC [Rust Pure Ore Tea Prop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-pure-ore-tea-prop) Hidden $28.57 $15.00 0.53x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.57 | 89.48% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.48 on average: an expected loss of $10.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt