--- title: "Shinigami Pact case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Shinigami Pact ($15.26) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.48% from 18 items with odds, observed 86.89% over 467 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shinigami-pact rendered: 2026-11-11T21:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Shinigami Pact](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shinigami-pact) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Shinigami Pact A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shinigami-pact?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shinigami-pact?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shinigami-pact) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shinigami-pact?window=all) Price · $15.26 Advertised RTP · 89.48% · EV $13.65 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.89% · 467 openings, odds method Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 10 openings · below min 7 days · 90.01% ±20.37 445 openings 30 days · 86.89% ±19.88 467 openings since tracking started · 86.89% ±19.88 467 openings -0.5% 82.8% 166.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shinigami-pact?window=24h) | 10 | 29.46% ±135.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shinigami-pact?window=7d) | 445 | 90.01% ±20.4 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shinigami-pact) | 467 | 86.89% ±19.9 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shinigami-pact?window=all) | 467 | 86.89% ±19.9 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 467 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Death Note x Team Liquid - Ryuk Jacket other](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-note-x-team-liquid-ryuk-jacket) | 1 in 154 | $220 | 10.5% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× | | [Funko POP Anime Death Note Ryuk Action Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-anime-death-note-ryuk-action-figure) | 1 in 125 | $180 | 10.5% | 8 | 3.7 | 2.14× | | [Death Note Manga Box Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-note-manga-box-set) | 1 in 100 | $159 | 11.6% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.07× | | [blanc et noir: Takeshi Obata Illustrations (Hardcover) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/blanc-et-noir-takeshi-obata-illustrations-hardcover) | 1 in 100 | $135 | 9.9% | 2 | 4.7 | 0.43× | | [Death Note x Team Liquid - Ryuk Keycap Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-note-x-team-liquid-ryuk-keycap-set) | 1 in 100 | $120 | 8.8% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.86× | | [Death Note Complete Series Blu-ray other](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-note-complete-series-blu-ray) | 1 in 50 | $50.00 | 7.3% | 7 | 9.3 | 0.75× | | [Death Note All-in-One Edition Manga other](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-note-all-in-one-edition-manga) | 1 in 44 | $40.00 | 6.6% | 10 | 10.5 | 0.95× | | [Death Note x Team Liquid - Ryuk Desk Mat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-note-x-team-liquid-ryuk-desk-mat) | 1 in 44 | $30.00 | 4.9% | 13 | 10.5 | 1.24× | | [Death Note - L 8 Inch Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-note-l-8-inch-plush) | 1 in 40 | $20.00 | 3.7% | 9 | 11.7 | 0.77× | | [Death Note Light SFC Collectible Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-note-light-sfc-collectible-figure) | 1 in 40 | $20.00 | 3.7% | 14 | 11.7 | 1.20× | | [Death Note - Ryuk Movable Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-note-ryuk-movable-plush) | 1 in 33 | $16.25 | 3.6% | 10 | 14.0 | 0.71× | | [Notebook Set L Leather Journal and Necklace Feather Pen other](https://gambatracker.com/items/notebook-set-l-leather-journal-and-necklace-feather-pen) | 1 in 33 | $13.60 | 3.0% | 10 | 14.0 | 0.71× | | [Kira is Justice Shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kira-is-justice-shirt) | 1 in 20 | $10.00 | 3.7% | 23 | 23.4 | 0.99× | | [Death Note Ceramic Coffee Tea Mug other](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-note-ceramic-coffee-tea-mug) | 1 in 20 | $8.00 | 2.9% | 27 | 23.4 | 1.16× | | [iPhone 15 Death Note Phone Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-15-death-note-phone-case) | 10.0% | $5.50 | 4.0% | 55 | 46.7 | 1.18× | | [Misa Amane Necklace other](https://gambatracker.com/items/misa-amane-necklace) | 10.0% | $3.75 | 2.7% | 47 | 46.7 | 1.01× | | [Death Note Detective L Lanyard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-note-detective-l-lanyard) | 13.1% | $2.00 | 1.9% | 62 | 60.9 | 1.02× | | [Death Note Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-note-keychain) | 35.0% | $0.25 | 0.6% | 160 | 163.5 | 0.98× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=shinigami-pact) [Notebook Set L Leather Journal and Necklace Feather Pen other](https://gambatracker.com/items/notebook-set-l-leather-journal-and-necklace-feather-pen) Hidden $15.26 $13.60 0.89x 2026-11-11 14:17 UTC [Death Note Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-note-keychain) Hidden $15.26 $0.25 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:17 UTC [Death Note Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-note-keychain) Hidden $15.26 $0.25 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:17 UTC [iPhone 15 Death Note Phone Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-15-death-note-phone-case) [Nic21](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Nic21) $15.26 $5.50 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:17 UTC [iPhone 15 Death Note Phone Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-15-death-note-phone-case) Hidden $15.26 $5.50 0.36x 2026-11-11 06:37 UTC [Death Note Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-note-keychain) Hidden $15.26 $0.25 0.02x 2026-11-11 06:37 UTC [Death Note Detective L Lanyard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-note-detective-l-lanyard) Hidden $15.26 $2.00 0.13x 2026-11-11 06:37 UTC [Death Note Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-note-keychain) Hidden $15.26 $0.25 0.02x 2026-11-11 06:37 UTC [Notebook Set L Leather Journal and Necklace Feather Pen other](https://gambatracker.com/items/notebook-set-l-leather-journal-and-necklace-feather-pen) Hidden $15.26 $13.60 0.89x 2026-11-11 06:37 UTC [Misa Amane Necklace other](https://gambatracker.com/items/misa-amane-necklace) Hidden $15.26 $3.75 0.25x 2026-11-11 06:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.26 | 89.48% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.48 on average: an expected loss of $10.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt