--- title: "Shocking case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Shocking ($184.38) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 53.98% over 49 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shocking rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Shocking](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shocking) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Shocking A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shocking?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shocking?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shocking) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shocking?window=all) Price · $184.38 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $165.02 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 53.98% · 49 openings, odds method Variance · 24.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 37 openings · below min 30 days · 49 openings · below min since tracking started · 49 openings · below min -0.5% 111.3% 223.0% **Small sample.** 49 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shocking?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shocking?window=7d) | 37 | 63.22% ±159.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shocking) | 49 | 53.98% ±138.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shocking?window=all) | 49 | 53.98% ±138.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 49 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Casio G-Shock "Bruce Lee 80th"other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-bruce-lee-80th) | 1 in 500 | $16K | 19.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Casio G-Shock Frogman GWF-D1000K-7JR other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-frogman-gwf-d1000k-7jr) | 1 in 333 | $5,520 | 10.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Casio G-Shock GWFA1000BRT1 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-gwfa1000brt1) | 1 in 200 | $3,920 | 11.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Casio G-Shock Blue Phoenix other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-blue-phoenix) | 1 in 200 | $3,550 | 10.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Casio G-Shock Chinese New Year Limited Edition MTG-B1000CX-4AER other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-chinese-new-year-limited-edition-mtg-b1000cx-4aer) | 1 in 100 | $2,460 | 14.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Casio G-Shock Tran Tixxii GMWB5000TR-9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-tran-tixxii-gmwb5000tr-9) | 1 in 200 | $2,160 | 6.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Casio G-Shock Rangeman GW-9407KJ-3JR other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-rangeman-gw-9407kj-3jr) | 1 in 100 | $1,350 | 8.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Casio G-Shock GA2100SRS-7A other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-ga2100srs-7a) | 1 in 100 | $635 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Casio G-Shock GA-2100MNG other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-ga-2100mng) | 1 in 100 | $432 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Casio G-Shock x Coca-Cola DW5600CC23-4 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-x-coca-cola-dw5600cc23-4) | 1 in 100 | $344 | 2.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Casio G-Shock DW-D5600TD-3 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-dw-d5600td-3) | 1 in 100 | $250 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Casio G-Shock x Super Mario Bros. other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-x-super-mario-bros) | 1 in 100 | $250 | 1.5% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [Casio G-Shock GA2100SR-1A other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-ga2100sr-1a) | 1 in 100 | $200 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [G-Shock Casio Vintage A168WG-9VT Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/g-shock-casio-vintage-a168wg-9vt-gold) | 1 in 33 | $87.00 | 1.6% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.36× | | [Casio Men's Vintage F91W-1 Resin Strap Digital Sport Watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-mens-vintage-f91w-1-resin-strap-digital-sport-watch) | 1 in 20 | $16.00 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.82× | | [Casio MQ24 Series other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-mq24-series) | 1 in 14 | $14.99 | 0.6% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× | | [Single Watch Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/single-watch-case) | 10.0% | $9.99 | 0.6% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× | | [Silicone Watch Band Loop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silicone-watch-band-loop) | 65.0% | $5.50 | 2.2% | 33 | 31.9 | 1.04× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Casio G-Shock Blue Phoenix other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-blue-phoenix) Hidden $184 $3,550 19.25x 2026-11-10 03:34 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=shocking) [Silicone Watch Band Loop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silicone-watch-band-loop) Hidden $184 $5.50 0.03x 2026-11-10 03:44 UTC [Casio Men's Vintage F91W-1 Resin Strap Digital Sport Watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-mens-vintage-f91w-1-resin-strap-digital-sport-watch) [Chode Muncher 🍆](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Chode%20Muncher%20%F0%9F%8D%86) $184 $16.00 0.09x 2026-11-10 03:44 UTC [Silicone Watch Band Loop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silicone-watch-band-loop) Hidden $184 $5.50 0.03x 2026-11-10 03:41 UTC [Silicone Watch Band Loop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silicone-watch-band-loop) [Chode Muncher 🍆](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Chode%20Muncher%20%F0%9F%8D%86) $184 $5.50 0.03x 2026-11-10 03:41 UTC [Silicone Watch Band Loop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silicone-watch-band-loop) Hidden $184 $5.50 0.03x 2026-11-10 03:36 UTC [Silicone Watch Band Loop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silicone-watch-band-loop) Hidden $184 $5.50 0.03x 2026-11-10 03:36 UTC [Silicone Watch Band Loop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silicone-watch-band-loop) [Chode Muncher 🍆](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Chode%20Muncher%20%F0%9F%8D%86) $184 $5.50 0.03x 2026-11-10 03:36 UTC [Silicone Watch Band Loop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silicone-watch-band-loop) Hidden $184 $5.50 0.03x 2026-11-10 03:34 UTC [Casio G-Shock Blue Phoenix other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-blue-phoenix) Hidden $184 $3,550 19.25x 2026-11-10 03:34 UTC [Silicone Watch Band Loop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silicone-watch-band-loop) Hidden $184 $5.50 0.03x 2026-11-10 03:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $184 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $3,550 (19.25x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt