--- title: "Shoe or Poo case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Shoe or Poo ($12.45) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 80.95% over 1,234 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shoe-or-poo rendered: 2026-11-12T05:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Shoe or Poo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shoe-or-poo) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Shoe or Poo A box on Cases.gg (Shoes), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shoe-or-poo?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shoe-or-poo?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shoe-or-poo) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shoe-or-poo?window=all) Price · $12.45 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $11.14 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.95% · 1,234 openings, odds method Variance · 35.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 106 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 220 openings · below min 7 days · 74.18% ±37.74 952 openings 30 days · 80.95% ±33.15 1,234 openings since tracking started · 80.95% ±33.15 1,234 openings -0.5% 57.3% 115.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shoe-or-poo?window=24h) | 220 | 31.14% ±78.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shoe-or-poo?window=7d) | 952 | 74.18% ±37.7 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shoe-or-poo) | 1,234 | 80.95% ±33.1 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/shoe-or-poo?window=all) | 1,234 | 80.95% ±33.1 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,234 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Jordan 1 Retro High OG SP Travis Scott Mocha (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-og-sp-travis-scott-mocha-us-7) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,390 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Nike Blazer Mid Off-White Grim Reaper (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-blazer-mid-off-white-grim-reaper-us-10) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,212 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Balenciaga Speed Trainer Black White (2021) (US 13) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-speed-trainer-black-white-2021-us-13) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,070 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [adidas Yeezy Boost 350 V2Cream (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350-v2cream-us-7) | 1 in 1,250 | $840 | 6.0% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [Adidas NMD S1 Edition 1 (US Men's 10.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-s1-edition-1-us-mens-10-5) | 1 in 2,500 | $766 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Nike Air Max 90 Off-White Desert Ore (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-max-90-off-white-desert-ore-us-7) | 1 in 1,000 | $750 | 6.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [adidas Yeezy Boost 700 Wave Runner (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-700-wave-runner-us-11) | 1 in 1,429 | $676 | 4.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [adidas NMD R1 Trail Guardians of the Galaxy Groot (US Men's 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-trail-guardians-of-the-galaxy-groot-us-mens-10) | 1 in 333 | $548 | 14.8% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.08× | | [Nike Dunk Low Off-White University Gold (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-off-white-university-gold-us-10) | 1 in 1,111 | $530 | 4.3% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90× | | [Nike SB Dunk Low Instant Skateboards (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-low-instant-skateboards-us-9) | 1 in 556 | $490 | 7.9% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.80× | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low SP Undefeated Multi-Patent Total Orange (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-sp-undefeated-multi-patent-total-orange-us-11) | 1 in 769 | $444 | 5.2% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.87× | | [Nike SB Dunk Low Green Apple (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-low-green-apple-us-7) | 1 in 667 | $390 | 5.3% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [Nike Air Force 1 Mid Off-White Pine Green (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-mid-off-white-pine-green-us-11) | 1 in 500 | $335 | 6.0% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× | | [adidas NMD R1 Tri Color Stripes Black (US Men's 5.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-tri-color-stripes-black-us-mens-5-5) | 1 in 400 | $324 | 7.3% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.30× | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low White Red Blue (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-white-red-blue-us-8) | 1 in 588 | $225 | 3.4% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× | | [Nike Dunk Low Glacier Blue (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-glacier-blue-us-9) | 1 in 250 | $135 | 4.8% | 7 | 4.9 | 1.42× | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 Black White Pebbled Leather (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-black-white-pebbled-leather-us-11) | 1 in 200 | $90.00 | 4.0% | 9 | 6.2 | 1.46× | | [Poop Emoji Stress Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/poop-emoji-stress-toy) | 97.3% | $0.99 | 8.6% | 1,198 | 1200.2 | 1.00× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [adidas Yeezy Boost 350 V2Cream (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350-v2cream-us-7) [madden50](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/madden50) $12.45 $840 67.47x 2026-11-03 05:28 UTC [adidas Yeezy Boost 700 Wave Runner (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-700-wave-runner-us-11) Hidden $12.45 $676 54.30x 2026-11-05 17:54 UTC [adidas NMD R1 Trail Guardians of the Galaxy Groot (US Men's 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-trail-guardians-of-the-galaxy-groot-us-mens-10) Hidden $12.45 $548 44.02x 2026-11-08 02:03 UTC [adidas NMD R1 Trail Guardians of the Galaxy Groot (US Men's 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-trail-guardians-of-the-galaxy-groot-us-mens-10) Hidden $12.45 $548 44.02x 2026-11-07 23:49 UTC [adidas NMD R1 Trail Guardians of the Galaxy Groot (US Men's 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-trail-guardians-of-the-galaxy-groot-us-mens-10) Hidden $12.45 $548 44.02x 2026-11-06 16:33 UTC [adidas NMD R1 Trail Guardians of the Galaxy Groot (US Men's 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-trail-guardians-of-the-galaxy-groot-us-mens-10) Hidden $12.45 $548 44.02x 2026-11-03 05:20 UTC [Nike Dunk Low Off-White University Gold (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-off-white-university-gold-us-10) Hidden $12.45 $530 42.57x 2026-11-09 21:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=shoe-or-poo) [Poop Emoji Stress Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/poop-emoji-stress-toy) Hidden $12.45 $0.99 0.08x 2026-11-12 05:13 UTC [Poop Emoji Stress Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/poop-emoji-stress-toy) Hidden $12.45 $0.99 0.08x 2026-11-12 05:13 UTC [Poop Emoji Stress Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/poop-emoji-stress-toy) Hidden $12.45 $0.99 0.08x 2026-11-12 05:13 UTC [Poop Emoji Stress Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/poop-emoji-stress-toy) Hidden $12.45 $0.99 0.08x 2026-11-12 05:13 UTC [Poop Emoji Stress Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/poop-emoji-stress-toy) Hidden $12.45 $0.99 0.08x 2026-11-12 05:13 UTC [Poop Emoji Stress Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/poop-emoji-stress-toy) [madden50](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/madden50) $12.45 $0.99 0.08x 2026-11-12 05:13 UTC [Poop Emoji Stress Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/poop-emoji-stress-toy) Hidden $12.45 $0.99 0.08x 2026-11-12 05:13 UTC [Poop Emoji Stress Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/poop-emoji-stress-toy) Hidden $12.45 $0.99 0.08x 2026-11-12 05:13 UTC [Poop Emoji Stress Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/poop-emoji-stress-toy) Hidden $12.45 $0.99 0.08x 2026-11-12 05:13 UTC [Poop Emoji Stress Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/poop-emoji-stress-toy) Hidden $12.45 $0.99 0.08x 2026-11-12 05:13 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.45 | 89.49% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $840 (67.47x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt