--- title: "Smart Home case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Smart Home ($16.76) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.48% from 18 items with odds, observed 87.73% over 755 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/smart-home rendered: 2026-11-11T20:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Smart Home](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/smart-home) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Smart Home A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/smart-home?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/smart-home?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/smart-home) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/smart-home?window=all) Price · $16.76 Advertised RTP · 89.48% · EV $15.00 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.73% · 755 openings, odds method Variance · 10.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 28 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 67.43% ±51.09 148 openings 7 days · 78.58% ±26.92 533 openings 30 days · 87.73% ±22.62 755 openings since tracking started · 87.73% ±22.62 755 openings 15.5% 67.3% 119.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/smart-home?window=24h) | 148 | 67.43% ±51.1 | −0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/smart-home?window=7d) | 533 | 78.58% ±26.9 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/smart-home) | 755 | 87.73% ±22.6 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/smart-home?window=all) | 755 | 87.73% ±22.6 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 755 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [iRobot Roomba i7+ (7550) Robot Vacuum with Automatic Dirt Disposal other](https://gambatracker.com/items/irobot-roomba-i7-7550-robot-vacuum-with-automatic-dirt-disposal) | 1 in 2,000 | $880 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Dyson Pure Hot + Cool Air Purifier, Heater + Fan - HEPA Air Filter, Space Heater other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dyson-pure-hot-cool-air-purifier-heater-fan-hepa-air-filter-space-heater) | 1 in 833 | $550 | 4.4% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [Nanoleaf Shapes - Triangle Smarter Kit Bundle (13 Panels) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nanoleaf-shapes-triangle-smarter-kit-bundle-13-panels) | 1 in 667 | $408 | 4.1% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.77× | | [Nest Learning Thermostat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nest-learning-thermostat) | 1 in 200 | $380 | 12.7% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× | | [Ring Battery Doorbell Pro other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ring-battery-doorbell-pro) | 1 in 222 | $250 | 7.5% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.29× | | [Arlo Pro 4 Spotlight Camera 4 Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/arlo-pro-4-spotlight-camera-4-pack) | 1 in 200 | $240 | 8.0% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.26× | | [Philips Hue Smart Light Starter Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/philips-hue-smart-light-starter-kit) | 1 in 133 | $170 | 8.5% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.24× | | [Apple HomePod mini other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-homepod-mini) | 1 in 100 | $170 | 11.3% | 10 | 7.5 | 1.32× | | [Amazon Echo Spot (2024 release), Smart alarm clock other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amazon-echo-spot-2024-release-smart-alarm-clock) | 1 in 100 | $98.00 | 6.5% | 9 | 7.5 | 1.19× | | [SwitchBot Blind Tilt Motorized Blinds other](https://gambatracker.com/items/switchbot-blind-tilt-motorized-blinds) | 1 in 100 | $87.00 | 5.8% | 8 | 7.5 | 1.06× | | [TP-Link AC1900 WiFi Extender other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tp-link-ac1900-wifi-extender) | 1 in 100 | $60.00 | 4.0% | 4 | 7.5 | 0.53× | | [Tile Mate Black - Bluetooth Tracker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tile-mate-black-bluetooth-tracker) | 1 in 40 | $25.00 | 4.1% | 28 | 18.7 | 1.50× | | [AUVON Plug-in LED Backlit Night Light with Motion Sensor other](https://gambatracker.com/items/auvon-plug-in-led-backlit-night-light-with-motion-sensor) | 1 in 29 | $15.00 | 3.5% | 24 | 26.4 | 0.91× | | [Air Wick Essential Mist Diffuser other](https://gambatracker.com/items/air-wick-essential-mist-diffuser) | 1 in 20 | $12.50 | 4.2% | 39 | 37.8 | 1.03× | | [Amazon Basics Smart Light Bulb other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amazon-basics-smart-light-bulb) | 1 in 20 | $11.00 | 3.7% | 25 | 37.8 | 0.66× | | [LED Light Strips other](https://gambatracker.com/items/led-light-strips) | 1 in 13 | $9.00 | 4.5% | 57 | 56.6 | 1.01× | | [SD Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sd-card) | 30.0% | $2.00 | 4.0% | 241 | 226.5 | 1.06× | | [Cable Organizer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cable-organizer) | 40.0% | $0.10 | 0.3% | 294 | 302.0 | 0.97× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Dyson Pure Hot + Cool Air Purifier, Heater + Fan - HEPA Air Filter, Space Heater other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dyson-pure-hot-cool-air-purifier-heater-fan-hepa-air-filter-space-heater) [release the files kenoq....](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/release%20the%20files%20kenoq....) $16.76 $550 32.82x 2026-11-07 01:41 UTC [Dyson Pure Hot + Cool Air Purifier, Heater + Fan - HEPA Air Filter, Space Heater other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dyson-pure-hot-cool-air-purifier-heater-fan-hepa-air-filter-space-heater) [strunmercury45](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/strunmercury45) $16.76 $550 32.82x 2026-11-03 14:31 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=smart-home) [Air Wick Essential Mist Diffuser other](https://gambatracker.com/items/air-wick-essential-mist-diffuser) Hidden $16.76 $12.50 0.75x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [SwitchBot Blind Tilt Motorized Blinds other](https://gambatracker.com/items/switchbot-blind-tilt-motorized-blinds) Hidden $16.76 $87.00 5.19x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [SD Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sd-card) Hidden $16.76 $2.00 0.12x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [LED Light Strips other](https://gambatracker.com/items/led-light-strips) Hidden $16.76 $9.00 0.54x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [SD Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sd-card) Hidden $16.76 $2.00 0.12x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [Cable Organizer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cable-organizer) [SnupsBar](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/SnupsBar) $16.76 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [Cable Organizer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cable-organizer) Hidden $16.76 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC [Cable Organizer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cable-organizer) Hidden $16.76 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC [AUVON Plug-in LED Backlit Night Light with Motion Sensor other](https://gambatracker.com/items/auvon-plug-in-led-backlit-night-light-with-motion-sensor) Hidden $16.76 $15.00 0.89x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC [Cable Organizer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cable-organizer) Hidden $16.76 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.76 | 89.48% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $550 (32.82x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.48 on average: an expected loss of $10.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt