---
title: "Sneakerhead case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Sneakerhead ($328.32) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 24 items with odds, observed 78.68% over 6 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/sneakerhead
rendered: 2026-11-12T01:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Sneakerhead](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/sneakerhead)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Sneakerhead

A box on Cases.gg (Hypebeast), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/sneakerhead?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/sneakerhead?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/sneakerhead) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/sneakerhead?window=all)

Price · $328.32

Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $293.84 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.68% · 6 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 6 openings · below min

30 days · 6 openings · below min

since tracking started · 6 openings · below min

-0.5% 109.3% 219.0%

**Small sample.** 6 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/sneakerhead?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/sneakerhead?window=7d) | 6 | 78.68% ±139.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/sneakerhead) | 6 | 78.68% ±139.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/sneakerhead?window=all) | 6 | 78.68% ±139.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Louis Vuitton Nike Air Force 1 Low By Virgil Abloh White Royal (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-nike-air-force-1-low-by-virgil-abloh-white-royal-us-10) | 1 in 1,250 | $10.6K | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nike Air Max 90 Off-White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-max-90-off-white) | 1 in 1,000 | $8,039 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Jordan 1 Retro High Off-White Chicago (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-off-white-chicago-us-7) | 1 in 10,000 | $7,900 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Converse Chuck Taylor All Star Vulcanized Hi Off-White (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/converse-chuck-taylor-all-star-vulcanized-hi-off-white-us-11) | 1 in 500 | $6,109 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Jordan 1 Retro Low OG SP Fragment x Travis Scott (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-low-og-sp-fragment-x-travis-scott-us-11) | 1 in 250 | $2,550 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Jordan 1 Retro High Off-White University Blue (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-off-white-university-blue-us-10) | 1 in 278 | $2,400 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [adidas NMD R1 Bape Olive Camo (Us Men's 4.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-bape-olive-camo-us-mens-4-5) | 1 in 200 | $1,920 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nike SB Dunk LowSupreme Stars Mean Green (2021) (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-lowsupreme-stars-mean-green-2021-us-7) | 1 in 118 | $1,350 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nike Air Force 1 Low Off-White Volt (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-off-white-volt-us-10) | 1 in 167 | $1,000 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nike Blazer Mid Off-White All Hallow's Eve (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-blazer-mid-off-white-all-hallows-eve-us-11) | 1 in 133 | $960 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nike Blazer Mid Off-White Grim Reaper (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-blazer-mid-off-white-grim-reaper-us-11) | 1 in 135 | $865 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [adidas Yeezy Boost 350 V2Cream (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350-v2cream-us-7) | 1 in 67 | $840 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nike SB Dunk LowSupreme Stars Black (2021) (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-lowsupreme-stars-black-2021-us-7) | 1 in 100 | $780 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [adidas Yeezy Boost 350Turtledove (2022) (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350turtledove-2022-us-11) | 1 in 77 | $725 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nike Dunk Low Off-White University Gold (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-off-white-university-gold-us-8) | 1 in 56 | $663 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nike Air Force 1 Flyleather Ruohan Wang (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-flyleather-ruohan-wang-us-7) | 1 in 50 | $495 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [adidas NMD R1 V2 Pulse Aqua (US Men's 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-v2-pulse-aqua-us-mens-11) | 1 in 20 | $481 | 8.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Nike SB Dunk Low Green Apple (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-low-green-apple-us-8) | 1 in 33 | $392 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 PRM NY vs. NY (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-prm-ny-vs-ny-us-7) | 1 in 40 | $385 | 3.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [adidas NMD R1 Trail Guardians of the Galaxy Groot (US Men's 4) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-trail-guardians-of-the-galaxy-groot-us-mens-4) | 15.0% | $350 | 17.9% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [adidas Yeezy Boost 350 V2Carbon Beluga (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350-v2carbon-beluga-us-7) | 1 in 20 | $185 | 3.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [adidas Yeezy Foam RNNR Sand (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-foam-rnnr-sand-us-10) | 1 in 20 | $150 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [adidas NMD R2 Black White (US Men's 4.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r2-black-white-us-mens-4-5) | 20.0% | $79.00 | 5.4% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [Nike Dunk Low Team Gold (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-team-gold-us-8) | 32.3% | $70.00 | 7.7% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=sneakerhead)

[adidas NMD R1 V2 Pulse Aqua (US Men's 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-v2-pulse-aqua-us-mens-11) Hidden $328 $481 1.47x 2026-11-10 08:32 UTC

[Nike Dunk Low Team Gold (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-team-gold-us-8) Hidden $328 $70.00 0.21x 2026-11-10 08:32 UTC

[Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 PRM NY vs. NY (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-prm-ny-vs-ny-us-7) Hidden $328 $385 1.17x 2026-11-10 08:32 UTC

[adidas NMD R2 Black White (US Men's 4.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r2-black-white-us-mens-4-5) Hidden $328 $79.00 0.24x 2026-11-10 08:32 UTC

[adidas Yeezy Boost 350 V2Carbon Beluga (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350-v2carbon-beluga-us-7) Hidden $328 $185 0.56x 2026-11-10 08:32 UTC

[adidas NMD R1 Trail Guardians of the Galaxy Groot (US Men's 4) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-trail-guardians-of-the-galaxy-groot-us-mens-4) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $328 $350 1.07x 2026-11-10 08:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $328 | 89.50% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt