---
title: "SNKR Drop case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SNKR Drop ($42.29) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.48% from 18 items with odds, observed 85.21% over 367 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/snkr-drop
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:44Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [SNKR Drop](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/snkr-drop)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · SNKR Drop

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/snkr-drop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/snkr-drop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/snkr-drop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/snkr-drop?window=all)

Price · $42.29

Advertised RTP · 89.48% · EV $37.84 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.21% · 367 openings, odds method

Variance · 14.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 31 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 10 openings · below min

7 days · 77.46% ±44.95 279 openings

30 days · 85.21% ±39.19 367 openings

since tracking started · 85.21% ±39.19 367 openings

-0.5% 151.3% 303.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/snkr-drop?window=24h) | 10 | 64.79% ±237.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/snkr-drop?window=7d) | 279 | 77.46% ±44.9 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/snkr-drop) | 367 | 85.21% ±39.2 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/snkr-drop?window=all) | 367 | 85.21% ±39.2 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 367 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Jordan 1 Retro Low OG SP Fragment x Travis Scott (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-low-og-sp-fragment-x-travis-scott-us-9) | 1 in 333 | $2,520 | 20.0% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× |
| [Nike Hot Step 2 Drake NOCTA Black US M 10 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-hot-step-2-drake-nocta-black-us-m-10) | 1 in 200 | $440 | 5.8% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.54× |
| [Jordan 5 Retro El Grito Sail US M 10 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-5-retro-el-grito-sail-us-m-10) | 1 in 200 | $440 | 5.8% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.63× |
| [New Balance 860v2 Comme des Garcons Homme Grey US M 10 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/new-balance-860v2-comme-des-garcons-homme-grey-us-m-10) | 1 in 154 | $420 | 7.2% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.68× |
| [Nike Kobe 8 Protro Lakers Home US M 10 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-kobe-8-protro-lakers-home-us-m-10) | 1 in 200 | $390 | 5.2% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.63× |
| [Jordan 12 Retro Barons US M 11 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-12-retro-barons-us-m-11) | 1 in 133 | $379 | 7.5% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.09× |
| [Nike Kobe 5 ProtroX-Ray US M 8 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-kobe-5-protrox-ray-us-m-8) | 1 in 154 | $350 | 6.0% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [Nike Air Force 1 Low G-Dragon Peaceminusone Para-Noise 3.0 US M 9.5 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-g-dragon-peaceminusone-para-noise-3-0-us-m-9-5) | 1 in 80 | $270 | 8.9% | 2 | 4.6 | 0.44× |
| [Nike Kobe 9 Elite Low Protro Halo US M 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-kobe-9-elite-low-protro-halo-us-m-9) | 1 in 100 | $245 | 6.5% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.54× |
| [Nike Air Max 90 Reverse Duck Camo US M 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-max-90-reverse-duck-camo-us-m-9) | 1 in 78 | $225 | 7.7% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.63× |
| [Nike Air Force 1 Mid Supreme White US M 8.5 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-mid-supreme-white-us-m-8-5) | 1 in 80 | $185 | 6.1% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.31× |
| [Nike Air Force 3 Low SP Nigo White US M 9.5 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-3-low-sp-nigo-white-us-m-9-5) | 1 in 154 | $180 | 3.1% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.84× |
| [Nike Dunk Low QS CO.JP What The (2024) US M 10 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-qs-co-jp-what-the-2024-us-m-10) | 1 in 133 | $110 | 2.2% | 6 | 2.8 | 2.18× |
| [Red Nike Dunk Replacement Style Laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/red-nike-dunk-replacement-style-laces) | 12.5% | $5.00 | 1.7% | 48 | 45.9 | 1.05× |
| [Black Alexander McQueen Trainer Shoelaces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/black-alexander-mcqueen-trainer-shoelaces) | 15.0% | $4.00 | 1.6% | 53 | 55.0 | 0.96× |
| [Dark Brown Nike Dunk Replacement Style Laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dark-brown-nike-dunk-replacement-style-laces) | 17.5% | $3.50 | 1.6% | 66 | 64.2 | 1.03× |
| [White Nike Dunk Replacement Style Laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/white-nike-dunk-replacement-style-laces) | 17.7% | $3.00 | 1.4% | 61 | 65.0 | 0.94× |
| [Burgundy Flat Trainer Shoelaces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/burgundy-flat-trainer-shoelaces) | 27.3% | $2.50 | 1.8% | 103 | 100.0 | 1.03× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Jordan 1 Retro Low OG SP Fragment x Travis Scott (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-low-og-sp-fragment-x-travis-scott-us-9) [Mysterious Dolphin](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Mysterious%20Dolphin) $42.29 $2,520 59.59x 2026-11-08 13:15 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=snkr-drop)

[Burgundy Flat Trainer Shoelaces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/burgundy-flat-trainer-shoelaces) Hidden $42.29 $2.50 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC

[Burgundy Flat Trainer Shoelaces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/burgundy-flat-trainer-shoelaces) Hidden $42.29 $2.50 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC

[Nike Kobe 9 Elite Low Protro Halo US M 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-kobe-9-elite-low-protro-halo-us-m-9) Hidden $42.29 $245 5.79x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC

[Dark Brown Nike Dunk Replacement Style Laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dark-brown-nike-dunk-replacement-style-laces) Hidden $42.29 $3.50 0.08x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC

[Dark Brown Nike Dunk Replacement Style Laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dark-brown-nike-dunk-replacement-style-laces) Hidden $42.29 $3.50 0.08x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC

[Dark Brown Nike Dunk Replacement Style Laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dark-brown-nike-dunk-replacement-style-laces) [Trecky](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Trecky) $42.29 $3.50 0.08x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC

[Burgundy Flat Trainer Shoelaces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/burgundy-flat-trainer-shoelaces) Hidden $42.29 $2.50 0.06x 2026-11-11 07:01 UTC

[Dark Brown Nike Dunk Replacement Style Laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dark-brown-nike-dunk-replacement-style-laces) Hidden $42.29 $3.50 0.08x 2026-11-11 07:01 UTC

[Black Alexander McQueen Trainer Shoelaces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/black-alexander-mcqueen-trainer-shoelaces) Hidden $42.29 $4.00 0.09x 2026-11-11 07:01 UTC

[Dark Brown Nike Dunk Replacement Style Laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dark-brown-nike-dunk-replacement-style-laces) [Friendly Chipmunk](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Friendly%20Chipmunk) $42.29 $3.50 0.08x 2026-11-11 07:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $42.29 | 89.48% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $2,520 (59.59x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.48 on average: an expected loss of $10.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt