--- title: "Soccer case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Soccer ($498.59) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 27 items with odds, observed 36.65% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/soccer rendered: 2026-11-12T06:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Soccer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/soccer) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Soccer A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/soccer?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/soccer?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/soccer) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/soccer?window=all) Price · $498.59 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $446.23 from 27 items Observed RTP, 30d · 36.65% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min -0.5% 85.3% 171.0% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/soccer?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/soccer?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/soccer) | 6 | 36.65% ±133.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/soccer?window=all) | 6 | 36.65% ±133.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Lionel Messi Official UEFA Champions League Official Back Signed and Framed FC Barcelona 2004-05 Away Shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lionel-messi-official-uefa-champions-league-official-back-signed-and-framed-fc-barcelona-2004-05-away-shirt) | 1 in 500 | $11.4K | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Cristiano Ronaldo 2004 Upper Deck SP Authentic #7 PSA 10 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cristiano-ronaldo-2004-upper-deck-sp-authentic-7-psa-10) | 1 in 250 | $6,506 | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Nike Mercurial Superfly 6 Elite CR7 FG Cristiano Ronaldo Black Gold US M 8.5 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-mercurial-superfly-6-elite-cr7-fg-cristiano-ronaldo-black-gold-us-m-8-5) | 1 in 200 | $3,940 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Louis Vuitton Pochette Jour Hexagonal FIFA World Cup GM Noir other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-pochette-jour-hexagonal-fifa-world-cup-gm-noir) | 1 in 200 | $3,600 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Lionel Messi Official UEFA Champions League Official Back Signed and Framed FC Barcelona 2017-18 Home Shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lionel-messi-official-uefa-champions-league-official-back-signed-and-framed-fc-barcelona-2017-18-home-shirt) | 1 in 200 | $3,369 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Lionel Messi Official UEFA Champions League Signed Football In Acrylic Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/lionel-messi-official-uefa-champions-league-signed-football-in-acrylic-case) | 1 in 133 | $2,711 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Louis Vuitton Pocket Organizer Hexagonal FIFA World Cup Rouge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-pocket-organizer-hexagonal-fifa-world-cup-rouge) | 1 in 133 | $2,310 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MSCHF x Umbro Wavy Soccer Ball Multicolor other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-x-umbro-wavy-soccer-ball-multicolor) | 1 in 50 | $1,400 | 6.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Zinedine Zidane Official UEFA Champions League Signed and Framed Real Madrid Photo: 2002 UEFA Champions League Winner other](https://gambatracker.com/items/zinedine-zidane-official-uefa-champions-league-signed-and-framed-real-madrid-photo-2002-uefa-champions-league-winner) | 1 in 80 | $1,246 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Vinicius Jr Official UEFA Champions League Back Signed and Framed Real Madrid CF 2022-23 Home Shirt with Fan Style Numbers other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vinicius-jr-official-uefa-champions-league-back-signed-and-framed-real-madrid-cf-2022-23-home-shirt-with-fan-style-numbers) | 1 in 71 | $953 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Cafu Official UEFA Champions League Back Signed and Framed AC Milan Retro Home Shirt With Fan Style Number other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cafu-official-uefa-champions-league-back-signed-and-framed-ac-milan-retro-home-shirt-with-fan-style-number) | 1 in 67 | $732 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sony PlayStation 5 PS5 Digital Edition EA SPORTS FIFA 23 (EU Plug) Console Bundle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sony-playstation-5-ps5-digital-edition-ea-sports-fifa-23-eu-plug-console-bundle) | 1 in 67 | $730 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Nike Vapor 14 Elite FG Football Grey Light Marine US M 9.5 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-vapor-14-elite-fg-football-grey-light-marine-us-m-9-5) | 1 in 67 | $714 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Lionel Messi 2018 Panini Prizm World Cup#1 PSA 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lionel-messi-2018-panini-prizm-world-cup-1-psa-9) | 1 in 67 | $683 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Andrea Pirlo Official UEFA Champions League Signed Nike Tiempo Boot In Photo Acrylic Case: Option 1 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/andrea-pirlo-official-uefa-champions-league-signed-nike-tiempo-boot-in-photo-acrylic-case-option-1) | 1 in 50 | $659 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Bearbrick x FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 1000% Set of 2 White Chrome/Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-x-fifa-world-cup-qatar-2022-1000-set-of-2-white-chrome-gold) | 1 in 50 | $657 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Chinatown Market x Smiley Globe Print Soccer Ball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chinatown-market-x-smiley-globe-print-soccer-ball) | 1 in 50 | $559 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Lionel Messi 2018 Panini Prizm World CupSilver #1 PSA 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lionel-messi-2018-panini-prizm-world-cupsilver-1-psa-9) | 1 in 50 | $504 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [adidas Predator Accuracy+ AG Own Your Football Pack US M 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-predator-accuracy-ag-own-your-football-pack-us-m-9) | 1 in 44 | $423 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [David Villa Official UEFA Champions League Signed and Framed FC Barcelona Photo: 2011 Winner other](https://gambatracker.com/items/david-villa-official-uefa-champions-league-signed-and-framed-fc-barcelona-photo-2011-winner) | 1 in 40 | $366 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Marco Materazzi Official UEFA Champions League Signed and Framed Internazionale Photo: Derby Days other](https://gambatracker.com/items/marco-materazzi-official-uefa-champions-league-signed-and-framed-internazionale-photo-derby-days) | 1 in 33 | $337 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [adidas Argentina 2024 Home Authentic Messi Jersey White/Blue Burst US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-argentina-2024-home-authentic-messi-jersey-white-blue-burst-us-l) | 10.0% | $245 | 5.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Supreme Umbro Soccer Ball Red Camo other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-umbro-soccer-ball-red-camo) | 15.0% | $190 | 6.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [adidas Inter Miami CF Lionel Messi 2024 La Noche Replica Player Jersey Black US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-inter-miami-cf-lionel-messi-2024-la-noche-replica-player-jersey-black-us-m) | 10.0% | $185 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Supreme Umbro Soccer Ball White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-umbro-soccer-ball-white) | 12.5% | $185 | 5.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [BAPE Multi ABC Camo Soccer Ball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-multi-abc-camo-soccer-ball) | 1 in 13 | $165 | 2.8% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [Official UEFA Champions League 3D Mini Replica Trophy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/official-uefa-champions-league-3d-mini-replica-trophy) | 15.0% | $147 | 4.9% | 1 | 0.9 | — | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=soccer) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $499 | 89.50% | 27 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt