---
title: "Springfield case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Springfield ($48.40) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 30 items with odds, observed 107.05% over 927 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/springfield
rendered: 2026-11-12T07:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Springfield](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/springfield)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Springfield

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/springfield?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/springfield?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/springfield) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/springfield?window=all)

Price · $48.40

Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $43.32 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 107.05% · 927 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 34 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 127 openings · below min

7 days · 107.88% ±23.51 659 openings

30 days · 107.05% ±19.82 927 openings

since tracking started · 107.05% ±19.82 927 openings

83.5% 149.8% 216.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/springfield?window=24h) | 127 | 161.80% ±53.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/springfield?window=7d) | 659 | 107.88% ±23.5 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/springfield) | 927 | 107.05% ±19.8 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/springfield?window=all) | 927 | 107.05% ±19.8 | +1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 927 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [OVO The Simpsons Varsity Jacket US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ovo-the-simpsons-varsity-jacket-us-l) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,110 | 4.9% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [LEGO The Simpsons The Kwik-E Mart Set 71016 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-the-simpsons-the-kwik-e-mart-set-71016) | 1 in 400 | $1,200 | 6.9% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.86× |
| [Bearbrick x The Simpsons Krusty The Clown 1000% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-x-the-simpsons-krusty-the-clown-1000) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,000 | 2.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [Balenciaga x The Simpsons Mini Shopping Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-x-the-simpsons-mini-shopping-bag) | 1 in 400 | $890 | 5.1% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.73× |
| [LEGO The Simpsons House Set 71006 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-the-simpsons-house-set-71006) | 1 in 400 | $890 | 5.1% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.86× |
| [Matt Gondek The Simpsons Nuclear Family Print (Signed, Open Edition) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/matt-gondek-the-simpsons-nuclear-family-print-signed-open-edition) | 1 in 400 | $766 | 4.4% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.73× |
| [Kith x The Simpsons Cloud Intarsia Sweater US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-x-the-simpsons-cloud-intarsia-sweater-us-l) | 1 in 333 | $750 | 5.2% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.80× |
| [Balenciaga x The Simpsons Long Coin and Card Holder other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-x-the-simpsons-long-coin-and-card-holder) | 1 in 400 | $725 | 4.2% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [Kidrobot The Simpsons: Itchy and Scratchy Medium Vinyl Figure Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kidrobot-the-simpsons-itchy-and-scratchy-medium-vinyl-figure-set) | 1 in 1,000 | $620 | 1.4% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [Balenciaga x The Simpsons Oversized T-Shirt EU 2 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-x-the-simpsons-oversized-t-shirt-eu-2) | 1 in 333 | $592 | 4.1% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× |
| [OVO The Simpsons Itchy Hoodie Light Blue US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ovo-the-simpsons-itchy-hoodie-light-blue-us-m) | 1 in 400 | $470 | 2.7% | 5 | 2.3 | 2.16× |
| [Bearbrick The Simpsons Bartman 400% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-the-simpsons-bartman-400) | 1 in 200 | $425 | 4.9% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.86× |
| [OVO The Simpsons All Over Print Hoodie US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ovo-the-simpsons-all-over-print-hoodie-us-m) | 1 in 333 | $400 | 2.8% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× |
| [OVO The Simpsons Krusty The Clown Snapback Cap Taupe/Teal other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ovo-the-simpsons-krusty-the-clown-snapback-cap-taupe-teal) | 1 in 200 | $380 | 4.4% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.08× |
| [Vans Sk8-Low The Simpsons El Barto US M 7.5 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vans-sk8-low-the-simpsons-el-barto-us-m-7-5) | 1 in 200 | $350 | 4.0% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× |
| [Nike SB Dunk Low Pro Bart Simpson US M 8.5 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-low-pro-bart-simpson-us-m-8-5) | 1 in 200 | $290 | 3.3% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× |
| [adidas ZX 10000 The Simpsons Krusty Burger US M 12 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-zx-10000-the-simpsons-krusty-burger-us-m-12) | 1 in 200 | $235 | 2.7% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.86× |
| [adidas Advantage The Simpsons El Barto US M 11.5 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-advantage-the-simpsons-el-barto-us-m-11-5) | 1 in 133 | $200 | 3.5% | 6 | 7.0 | 0.86× |
| [adidas Rivalry Low The Simpsons Itchy US M 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-rivalry-low-the-simpsons-itchy-us-m-9) | 1 in 100 | $185 | 4.3% | 11 | 9.3 | 1.19× |
| [Vans Sk8-Hi The Simpsons Family Portrait US M 9.5 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vans-sk8-hi-the-simpsons-family-portrait-us-m-9-5) | 1 in 200 | $135 | 1.6% | 11 | 4.6 | 2.37× |
| [Bearbrick The Simpsons Radioactive Man 100% & 400% Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-the-simpsons-radioactive-man-100-and-400-set) | 1 in 133 | $130 | 2.3% | 10 | 7.0 | 1.44× |
| [Crocs Classic Clog The Simpsons Krusty the Clown US M 10 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/crocs-classic-clog-the-simpsons-krusty-the-clown-us-m-10) | 1 in 100 | $124 | 2.9% | 15 | 9.3 | 1.62× |
| [Funko Pop! Television The Simpsons Couch Homer Figure #909 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-television-the-simpsons-couch-homer-figure-909) | 1 in 333 | $105 | 0.7% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× |
| [Funko Pop! Television The Simpsons Otto Mann Target Con Exclusive Figure #907 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-television-the-simpsons-otto-mann-target-con-exclusive-figure-907) | 1 in 100 | $100 | 2.3% | 9 | 9.3 | 0.97× |
| [The Simpsons Hat Krusty Burger other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-simpsons-hat-krusty-burger) | 1 in 11 | $14.40 | 3.2% | 91 | 88.1 | 1.03× |
| [Disney The Simpsons Talking Krusty Doll Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/disney-the-simpsons-talking-krusty-doll-plush) | 10.0% | $12.60 | 2.9% | 78 | 92.7 | 0.84× |
| [Funko POP TV: Simpsons - Bart Simpson other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-tv-simpsons-bart-simpson) | 10.0% | $10.00 | 2.3% | 89 | 92.7 | 0.96× |
| [LEGO Minifigures The Simpsons Series 71009 Building Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-minifigures-the-simpsons-series-71009-building-kit) | 15.0% | $7.50 | 2.6% | 129 | 139.0 | 0.93× |
| [The Simpsons Casual Crew Socks 2 Pairs other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-simpsons-casual-crew-socks-2-pairs) | 20.0% | $4.00 | 1.8% | 207 | 185.4 | 1.12× |
| [Duff Beer Car Air Freshener other](https://gambatracker.com/items/duff-beer-car-air-freshener) | 25.0% | $2.00 | 1.2% | 215 | 231.8 | 0.93× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[OVO The Simpsons Varsity Jacket US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ovo-the-simpsons-varsity-jacket-us-l) [SnupsBar](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/SnupsBar) $48.40 $2,110 43.60x 2026-11-11 20:38 UTC

[OVO The Simpsons Varsity Jacket US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ovo-the-simpsons-varsity-jacket-us-l) [Trecky](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Trecky) $48.40 $2,110 43.60x 2026-11-05 16:22 UTC

[LEGO The Simpsons The Kwik-E Mart Set 71016 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-the-simpsons-the-kwik-e-mart-set-71016) [Swift Ibex](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Swift%20Ibex) $48.40 $1,200 24.79x 2026-11-12 05:31 UTC

[LEGO The Simpsons The Kwik-E Mart Set 71016 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-the-simpsons-the-kwik-e-mart-set-71016) Hidden $48.40 $1,200 24.79x 2026-11-05 06:12 UTC

[Bearbrick x The Simpsons Krusty The Clown 1000% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-x-the-simpsons-krusty-the-clown-1000) Hidden $48.40 $1,000 20.66x 2026-11-03 17:56 UTC

[Balenciaga x The Simpsons Mini Shopping Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-x-the-simpsons-mini-shopping-bag) Hidden $48.40 $890 18.39x 2026-11-11 20:41 UTC

[LEGO The Simpsons House Set 71006 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-the-simpsons-house-set-71006) Hidden $48.40 $890 18.39x 2026-11-11 07:03 UTC

[Balenciaga x The Simpsons Mini Shopping Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-x-the-simpsons-mini-shopping-bag) Hidden $48.40 $890 18.39x 2026-11-09 06:15 UTC

[LEGO The Simpsons House Set 71006 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-the-simpsons-house-set-71006) Hidden $48.40 $890 18.39x 2026-11-04 19:28 UTC

[Balenciaga x The Simpsons Mini Shopping Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-x-the-simpsons-mini-shopping-bag) Hidden $48.40 $890 18.39x 2026-11-03 17:58 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=springfield)

[The Simpsons Casual Crew Socks 2 Pairs other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-simpsons-casual-crew-socks-2-pairs) Hidden $48.40 $4.00 0.08x 2026-11-12 05:51 UTC

[Matt Gondek The Simpsons Nuclear Family Print (Signed, Open Edition) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/matt-gondek-the-simpsons-nuclear-family-print-signed-open-edition) Hidden $48.40 $766 15.83x 2026-11-12 05:51 UTC

[Disney The Simpsons Talking Krusty Doll Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/disney-the-simpsons-talking-krusty-doll-plush) Hidden $48.40 $12.60 0.26x 2026-11-12 05:51 UTC

[The Simpsons Casual Crew Socks 2 Pairs other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-simpsons-casual-crew-socks-2-pairs) Hidden $48.40 $4.00 0.08x 2026-11-12 05:51 UTC

[Disney The Simpsons Talking Krusty Doll Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/disney-the-simpsons-talking-krusty-doll-plush) Hidden $48.40 $12.60 0.26x 2026-11-12 05:51 UTC

[The Simpsons Casual Crew Socks 2 Pairs other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-simpsons-casual-crew-socks-2-pairs) [Swift Ibex](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Swift%20Ibex) $48.40 $4.00 0.08x 2026-11-12 05:51 UTC

[Disney The Simpsons Talking Krusty Doll Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/disney-the-simpsons-talking-krusty-doll-plush) Hidden $48.40 $12.60 0.26x 2026-11-12 05:51 UTC

[The Simpsons Casual Crew Socks 2 Pairs other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-simpsons-casual-crew-socks-2-pairs) Hidden $48.40 $4.00 0.08x 2026-11-12 05:51 UTC

[The Simpsons Hat Krusty Burger other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-simpsons-hat-krusty-burger) Hidden $48.40 $14.40 0.30x 2026-11-12 05:51 UTC

[LEGO Minifigures The Simpsons Series 71009 Building Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-minifigures-the-simpsons-series-71009-building-kit) Hidden $48.40 $7.50 0.15x 2026-11-12 05:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $48.40 | 89.50% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $2,110 (43.60x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt