--- title: "Squirtle Splash case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Squirtle Splash ($7.24) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.44% from 18 items with odds, observed 113.99% over 1,856 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/squirtle-splash rendered: 2026-11-11T20:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Squirtle Splash](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/squirtle-splash) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Squirtle Splash A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/squirtle-splash?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/squirtle-splash?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/squirtle-splash) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/squirtle-splash?window=all) Price · $7.24 Advertised RTP · 89.44% · EV $6.48 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 113.99% · 1,856 openings, odds method Variance · 35.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 80 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 346 openings · below min 7 days · 112.28% ±28.38 1,675 openings 30 days · 113.99% ±26.96 1,856 openings since tracking started · 113.99% ±26.96 1,856 openings 77.5% 140.5% 203.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/squirtle-splash?window=24h) | 346 | 140.35% ±62.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/squirtle-splash?window=7d) | 1,675 | 112.28% ±28.4 | +1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/squirtle-splash) | 1,856 | 113.99% ±27.0 | +1.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/squirtle-splash?window=all) | 1,856 | 113.99% ±27.0 | +1.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,856 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Squirtle (MCDP 007) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-mcdp-007) | 1 in 200 | $600 | 46.3% | 15 | 9.3 | 1.62× | | [Squirtle (MEW 007) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-mew-007) | 1 in 133 | $65.00 | 7.5% | 8 | 13.9 | 0.57× | | [Pokémon 8" Squirtle Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-8-squirtle-plush) | 1 in 100 | $35.00 | 5.4% | 16 | 18.6 | 0.86× | | [Squirtle (MEW 170) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-mew-170) | 1 in 100 | $26.50 | 4.1% | 24 | 18.6 | 1.29× | | [Squirtle (SCR 148) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-scr-148) | 1 in 100 | $25.00 | 3.9% | 19 | 18.6 | 1.02× | | [Pokemon Shoulder Bag Cross Body Bag for Kids other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-shoulder-bag-cross-body-bag-for-kids) | 1 in 100 | $23.00 | 3.6% | 19 | 18.6 | 1.02× | | [Squirtle (svG 052) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-svg-052) | 1 in 100 | $21.65 | 3.3% | 19 | 18.6 | 1.02× | | [Pokémon Squirtle Water Type Schematic T-Shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-squirtle-water-type-schematic-t-shirt) | 1 in 40 | $18.00 | 6.9% | 52 | 46.4 | 1.12× | | [Pokémon GO Pin Collection—Squirtle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-go-pin-collection-squirtle) | 1 in 40 | $12.00 | 4.6% | 48 | 46.4 | 1.03× | | [My First Battle: Charmander & Squirtle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/my-first-battle-charmander-and-squirtle) | 1 in 29 | $7.25 | 3.9% | 68 | 65.0 | 1.05× | | [My First Squirtle (sv2a 170)Battle: Charmander & Squirtle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/my-first-squirtle-sv2a-170-battle-charmander-and-squirtle) | 1 in 20 | $3.90 | 3.0% | 98 | 92.8 | 1.06× | | [Squirtle (CLK 001) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-clk-001) | 1 in 20 | $3.70 | 2.9% | 97 | 92.8 | 1.05× | | [Squirtle (CLB 001) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-clb-001) | 1 in 20 | $3.50 | 2.7% | 95 | 92.8 | 1.02× | | [Squirtle (MA 46) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-ma-46) | 1 in 13 | $0.96 | 1.1% | 123 | 139.2 | 0.88× | | [Squirtle (MCD25 17) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-mcd25-17) | 1 in 13 | $0.30 | 0.3% | 127 | 139.2 | 0.91× | | [Squirtle (S-P 290) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-s-p-290) | 15.0% | $0.09 | 0.2% | 271 | 278.4 | 0.97× | | [Squirtle (B2 93) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-b2-93) | 15.0% | $0.05 | 0.1% | 293 | 278.4 | 1.05× | | [Squirtle (SVP 048) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-svp-048) | 25.3% | $0.01 | 0.0% | 464 | 468.6 | 0.99× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Squirtle (MCDP 007) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-mcdp-007) Hidden $7.24 $600 82.87x 2026-11-11 06:56 UTC [Squirtle (MCDP 007) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-mcdp-007) [Nic21](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Nic21) $7.24 $600 82.87x 2026-11-11 06:49 UTC [Squirtle (MCDP 007) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-mcdp-007) Hidden $7.24 $600 82.87x 2026-11-11 01:07 UTC [Squirtle (MCDP 007) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-mcdp-007) [SnupsBar](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/SnupsBar) $7.24 $600 82.87x 2026-11-11 01:06 UTC [Squirtle (MCDP 007) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-mcdp-007) Hidden $7.24 $600 82.87x 2026-11-09 18:32 UTC [Squirtle (MCDP 007) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-mcdp-007) Hidden $7.24 $600 82.87x 2026-11-09 05:41 UTC [Squirtle (MCDP 007) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-mcdp-007) Hidden $7.24 $600 82.87x 2026-11-07 08:49 UTC [Squirtle (MCDP 007) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-mcdp-007) Hidden $7.24 $600 82.87x 2026-11-06 23:26 UTC [Squirtle (MCDP 007) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-mcdp-007) Hidden $7.24 $600 82.87x 2026-11-06 03:36 UTC [Squirtle (MCDP 007) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-mcdp-007) Hidden $7.24 $600 82.87x 2026-11-05 22:47 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=squirtle-splash) [Squirtle (B2 93) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-b2-93) Hidden $7.24 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC [Squirtle (B2 93) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-b2-93) Hidden $7.24 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC [My First Squirtle (sv2a 170)Battle: Charmander & Squirtle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/my-first-squirtle-sv2a-170-battle-charmander-and-squirtle) Hidden $7.24 $3.90 0.54x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC [Squirtle (S-P 290) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-s-p-290) Hidden $7.24 $0.09 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC [Squirtle (SVP 048) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-svp-048) Hidden $7.24 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC [My First Squirtle (sv2a 170)Battle: Charmander & Squirtle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/my-first-squirtle-sv2a-170-battle-charmander-and-squirtle) [bananchik](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/bananchik) $7.24 $3.90 0.54x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC [My First Squirtle (sv2a 170)Battle: Charmander & Squirtle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/my-first-squirtle-sv2a-170-battle-charmander-and-squirtle) Hidden $7.24 $3.90 0.54x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC [Squirtle (SVP 048) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-svp-048) Hidden $7.24 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC [Pokémon Squirtle Water Type Schematic T-Shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-squirtle-water-type-schematic-t-shirt) Hidden $7.24 $18.00 2.49x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC [Squirtle (MA 46) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-ma-46) Hidden $7.24 $0.96 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.24 | 89.44% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $600 (82.87x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.44 on average: an expected loss of $10.56 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt