---
title: "Squishy case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Squishy ($27.78) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 54.23% over 284 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/squishy
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:08Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Squishy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/squishy)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Squishy

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/squishy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/squishy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/squishy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/squishy?window=all)

Price · $27.78

Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $24.86 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 54.23% · 284 openings, odds method

Variance · 19.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 45 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 24 openings · below min

7 days · 52.48% ±53.03 272 openings

30 days · 54.23% ±51.90 284 openings

since tracking started · 54.23% ±51.90 284 openings

-0.5% 118.3% 237.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/squishy?window=24h) | 24 | 57.61% ±178.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/squishy?window=7d) | 272 | 52.48% ±53.0 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/squishy) | 284 | 54.23% ±51.9 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/squishy?window=all) | 284 | 54.23% ±51.9 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 284 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Squishmallow Jack The Black Cat 12 Inch Plush Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallow-jack-the-black-cat-12-inch-plush-black) | 1 in 500 | $2,200 | 17.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Squishmallow Pokemon Gengar and Pikachu 12 Inch Plush Set (Pokemon Center Version) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallow-pokemon-gengar-and-pikachu-12-inch-plush-set-pokemon-center-version) | 1 in 200 | $890 | 17.9% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [Squishmallow Select Series Hans the Hedgehog 16" Plush Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallow-select-series-hans-the-hedgehog-16-plush-gold) | 1 in 200 | $585 | 11.8% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [Squishmallow Star Wars Chewbacca 20 Inch Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallow-star-wars-chewbacca-20-inch-plush) | 1 in 100 | $125 | 5.0% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [Squishmallow x Pokemon Pikachu 12 Inch Pokemon Center Exclusive Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallow-x-pokemon-pikachu-12-inch-pokemon-center-exclusive-plush) | 1 in 125 | $115 | 3.7% | 5 | 2.3 | 2.20× |
| [Squishmallow Pokemon 20" Gengar Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallow-pokemon-20-gengar-plush) | 1 in 100 | $72.00 | 2.9% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.41× |
| [Squishmallows 16" Austin The Avocado other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallows-16-austin-the-avocado) | 1 in 50 | $55.00 | 4.4% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [Squishmallow Malcom The Mushroom 12 Inch Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallow-malcom-the-mushroom-12-inch-plush) | 1 in 50 | $52.00 | 4.2% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.06× |
| [Squishmallow Wendy the Frog 16" Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallow-wendy-the-frog-16-plush) | 1 in 33 | $44.00 | 5.3% | 5 | 8.5 | 0.59× |
| [Kirby Plushie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kirby-plushie) | 1 in 33 | $38.00 | 4.6% | 10 | 8.5 | 1.17× |
| [Squishmallow Pokemon Snorlax 14" Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallow-pokemon-snorlax-14-plush) | 1 in 33 | $33.00 | 4.0% | 10 | 8.5 | 1.17× |
| [Squishmallow Pokemon Pikachu Holiday 14" Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallow-pokemon-pikachu-holiday-14-plush) | 1 in 33 | $27.00 | 3.3% | 13 | 8.5 | 1.53× |
| [Black Cat Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/black-cat-plush) | 1 in 33 | $21.00 | 2.5% | 17 | 8.5 | 2.00× |
| [Squishmallows Original 12-Inch Danny Dino with Bow Tie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallows-original-12-inch-danny-dino-with-bow-tie) | 1 in 33 | $17.50 | 2.1% | 4 | 8.5 | 0.47× |
| [Soft Black Cat Plush Toy Pillow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/soft-black-cat-plush-toy-pillow) | 1 in 25 | $13.00 | 2.1% | 8 | 11.4 | 0.70× |
| [Penguin Pendant Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/penguin-pendant-keychain) | 10.0% | $11.00 | 4.4% | 31 | 28.4 | 1.09× |
| [Turtle Doll Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/turtle-doll-keychain) | 10.0% | $7.70 | 3.1% | 39 | 28.4 | 1.37× |
| [Key Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/key-ring) | 50.0% | $0.50 | 1.0% | 131 | 142.0 | 0.92× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Squishmallow Select Series Hans the Hedgehog 16" Plush Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallow-select-series-hans-the-hedgehog-16-plush-gold) Hidden $27.78 $585 21.06x 2026-11-05 14:39 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=squishy)

[Key Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/key-ring) Hidden $27.78 $0.50 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC

[Key Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/key-ring) Hidden $27.78 $0.50 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC

[Key Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/key-ring) Hidden $27.78 $0.50 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC

[Squishmallow x Pokemon Pikachu 12 Inch Pokemon Center Exclusive Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallow-x-pokemon-pikachu-12-inch-pokemon-center-exclusive-plush) Hidden $27.78 $115 4.14x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC

[Turtle Doll Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/turtle-doll-keychain) Hidden $27.78 $7.70 0.28x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC

[Key Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/key-ring) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $27.78 $0.50 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC

[Squishmallow Wendy the Frog 16" Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallow-wendy-the-frog-16-plush) Hidden $27.78 $44.00 1.58x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC

[Turtle Doll Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/turtle-doll-keychain) Hidden $27.78 $7.70 0.28x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC

[Penguin Pendant Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/penguin-pendant-keychain) Hidden $27.78 $11.00 0.40x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC

[Squishmallows Original 12-Inch Danny Dino with Bow Tie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallows-original-12-inch-danny-dino-with-bow-tie) Hidden $27.78 $17.50 0.63x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.78 | 89.49% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $585 (21.06x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt