--- title: "Steam Dream case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Steam Dream ($28.47) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.47% from 18 items with odds, observed 98.12% over 694 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/steam-dream rendered: 2026-11-11T20:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Steam Dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/steam-dream) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Steam Dream A box on Cases.gg (Steam), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/steam-dream?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/steam-dream?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/steam-dream) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/steam-dream?window=all) Price · $28.47 Advertised RTP · 89.47% · EV $25.47 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.12% · 694 openings, odds method Variance · 16.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 104 openings · below min 7 days · 97.69% ±31.23 652 openings 30 days · 98.12% ±30.27 694 openings since tracking started · 98.12% ±30.27 694 openings -0.5% 64.5% 129.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/steam-dream?window=24h) | 104 | 46.08% ±78.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/steam-dream?window=7d) | 652 | 97.69% ±31.2 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/steam-dream) | 694 | 98.12% ±30.3 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/steam-dream?window=all) | 694 | 98.12% ±30.3 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 694 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Valve Index VR Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valve-index-vr-kit) | 1 in 200 | $1,099 | 21.6% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× | | [Steam Deck 1TB OLED other](https://gambatracker.com/items/steam-deck-1tb-oled) | 1 in 200 | $950 | 18.6% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.15× | | [Steam Deck 256GB LCD other](https://gambatracker.com/items/steam-deck-256gb-lcd) | 1 in 200 | $700 | 13.7% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.73× | | [Valve Index Controllers other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valve-index-controllers) | 1 in 200 | $307 | 6.0% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.44× | | [Valve Index Base Station other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valve-index-base-station) | 1 in 133 | $164 | 4.8% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× | | [EA SPORTS FC 24 Ultimate - Steam PC \[Online Game Code\] other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ea-sports-fc-24-ultimate-steam-pc-online-game-code) | 1 in 133 | $130 | 3.8% | 8 | 5.2 | 1.54× | | [God of War Standard - PC \[Online Game Code\] other](https://gambatracker.com/items/god-of-war-standard-pc-online-game-code) | 1 in 67 | $55.00 | 3.2% | 9 | 10.4 | 0.86× | | [Horizon Zero Dawn Complete Edition - PC \[Online Game Code\] other](https://gambatracker.com/items/horizon-zero-dawn-complete-edition-pc-online-game-code) | 1 in 67 | $54.99 | 3.2% | 7 | 10.4 | 0.67× | | [THE LAST OF US PART I - DELUXE EDITION - PC \[Online Game Code\] other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-last-of-us-part-i-deluxe-edition-pc-online-game-code) | 1 in 100 | $50.00 | 2.0% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.15× | | [Just Cause 4: Reloaded - Steam PC \[Online Game Code\] other](https://gambatracker.com/items/just-cause-4-reloaded-steam-pc-online-game-code) | 1 in 67 | $48.00 | 2.8% | 7 | 10.4 | 0.67× | | [MageGee Portable 60% Mechanical Gaming Keyboard - Black/Grey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/magegee-portable-60-mechanical-gaming-keyboard-black-grey) | 1 in 50 | $40.69 | 3.2% | 13 | 13.9 | 0.94× | | [Logitech G305 LIGHTSPEED Wireless Gaming Mouse other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-g305-lightspeed-wireless-gaming-mouse) | 1 in 50 | $32.99 | 2.6% | 16 | 13.9 | 1.15× | | [Red Dead Redemption 2 - PC \[Online Game Code\] other](https://gambatracker.com/items/red-dead-redemption-2-pc-online-game-code) | 1 in 50 | $26.00 | 2.0% | 7 | 13.9 | 0.50× | | [Mortal Kombat Arcade Kollection - Steam PC \[Online Game Code\] other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mortal-kombat-arcade-kollection-steam-pc-online-game-code) | 1 in 20 | $22.00 | 4.3% | 35 | 34.7 | 1.01× | | [$20 Steam Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/20-steam-gift-card) | 1 in 40 | $20.00 | 2.0% | 14 | 17.4 | 0.81× | | [The Outer Worlds: Standard - Steam PC other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-outer-worlds-standard-steam-pc) | 1 in 40 | $15.00 | 1.5% | 19 | 17.4 | 1.10× | | [Battlefield Hardline - PC other](https://gambatracker.com/items/battlefield-hardline-pc) | 1 in 20 | $8.99 | 1.8% | 38 | 34.7 | 1.10× | | [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) | 70.0% | $1.00 | 2.7% | 492 | 485.8 | 1.01× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Valve Index VR Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valve-index-vr-kit) Hidden $28.47 $1,099 38.60x 2026-11-07 22:27 UTC [Valve Index VR Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valve-index-vr-kit) Hidden $28.47 $1,099 38.60x 2026-11-07 12:59 UTC [Valve Index VR Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valve-index-vr-kit) Hidden $28.47 $1,099 38.60x 2026-11-06 08:28 UTC [Steam Deck 1TB OLED other](https://gambatracker.com/items/steam-deck-1tb-oled) Hidden $28.47 $950 33.37x 2026-11-07 18:52 UTC [Steam Deck 1TB OLED other](https://gambatracker.com/items/steam-deck-1tb-oled) Hidden $28.47 $950 33.37x 2026-11-07 00:38 UTC [Steam Deck 1TB OLED other](https://gambatracker.com/items/steam-deck-1tb-oled) Hidden $28.47 $950 33.37x 2026-11-06 08:28 UTC [Steam Deck 1TB OLED other](https://gambatracker.com/items/steam-deck-1tb-oled) Hidden $28.47 $950 33.37x 2026-11-03 12:09 UTC [Steam Deck 256GB LCD other](https://gambatracker.com/items/steam-deck-256gb-lcd) Hidden $28.47 $700 24.59x 2026-11-09 03:59 UTC [Steam Deck 256GB LCD other](https://gambatracker.com/items/steam-deck-256gb-lcd) Hidden $28.47 $700 24.59x 2026-11-09 03:46 UTC [Steam Deck 256GB LCD other](https://gambatracker.com/items/steam-deck-256gb-lcd) [CrCaptain](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/CrCaptain) $28.47 $700 24.59x 2026-11-07 22:34 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=steam-dream) [Horizon Zero Dawn Complete Edition - PC \[Online Game Code\] other](https://gambatracker.com/items/horizon-zero-dawn-complete-edition-pc-online-game-code) Hidden $28.47 $54.99 1.93x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [The Outer Worlds: Standard - Steam PC other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-outer-worlds-standard-steam-pc) Hidden $28.47 $15.00 0.53x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) Hidden $28.47 $1.00 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) Hidden $28.47 $1.00 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) Hidden $28.47 $1.00 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $28.47 $1.00 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) Hidden $28.47 $1.00 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) Hidden $28.47 $1.00 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) Hidden $28.47 $1.00 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) Hidden $28.47 $1.00 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.47 | 89.47% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $1,099 (38.60x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.47 on average: an expected loss of $10.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt