--- title: "Steam case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Steam ($7.48) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 75.44% over 698 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/steam rendered: 2026-11-11T15:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Steam](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/steam) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Steam A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/steam?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/steam?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/steam) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/steam?window=all) Price · $7.48 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $6.69 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 75.44% · 698 openings, odds method Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 44 openings · below min 7 days · 75.15% ±16.25 659 openings 30 days · 75.44% ±15.79 698 openings since tracking started · 75.44% ±15.79 698 openings -0.5% 60.3% 121.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/steam?window=24h) | 44 | 57.47% ±62.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/steam?window=7d) | 659 | 75.15% ±16.3 | −1.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/steam) | 698 | 75.44% ±15.8 | −1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/steam?window=all) | 698 | 75.44% ±15.8 | −1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 698 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [$100 Steam Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-steam-gift-card) | 1 in 67 | $105 | 23.5% | 3 | 10.5 | 0.29× | | [$50 Steam Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/50-steam-gift-card) | 1 in 50 | $52.00 | 15.5% | 16 | 14.0 | 1.15× | | [Elden Ring (PC) - Steam Key - EUROPE other](https://gambatracker.com/items/elden-ring-pc-steam-key-europe) | 1 in 50 | $44.28 | 13.2% | 15 | 14.0 | 1.07× | | [$25 Steam Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/25-steam-gift-card) | 1 in 50 | $25.00 | 7.5% | 12 | 14.0 | 0.86× | | [$20 Steam Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/20-steam-gift-card) | 1 in 50 | $20.00 | 6.0% | 18 | 14.0 | 1.29× | | [Rust (PC) - Steam Account - GLOBAL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rust-pc-steam-account-global) | 1 in 40 | $14.95 | 5.6% | 11 | 17.4 | 0.63× | | [Grand Theft Auto V (GTA 5) PC - Rockstar Key - GLOBAL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/grand-theft-auto-v-gta-5-pc-rockstar-key-global) | 1 in 40 | $14.19 | 5.3% | 11 | 17.4 | 0.63× | | [$10 Steam Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/10-steam-gift-card) | 1 in 33 | $10.00 | 4.5% | 21 | 20.9 | 1.00× | | [Overcooked! 2 (PC) - Steam Key - GLOBAL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/overcooked-2-pc-steam-key-global) | 1 in 20 | $6.54 | 4.9% | 40 | 34.9 | 1.15× | | [$5 Steam Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/5-steam-gift-card) | 1 in 20 | $5.00 | 3.7% | 39 | 34.9 | 1.12× | | [Terraria (PC) - Steam Gift - GLOBAL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/terraria-pc-steam-gift-global) | 1 in 20 | $4.84 | 3.6% | 33 | 34.9 | 0.95× | | [Delta Force: Hawk Ops \| Closed Alpha (PC) - Steam Key - GLOBAL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/delta-force-hawk-ops-closed-alpha-pc-steam-key-global) | 1 in 20 | $3.04 | 2.3% | 36 | 34.9 | 1.03× | | [7 Days to Die (PC) - Steam Account - GLOBAL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/7-days-to-die-pc-steam-account-global) | 1 in 20 | $2.60 | 1.9% | 33 | 34.9 | 0.95× | | [The Forest (PC) - Steam Account - GLOBAL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-forest-pc-steam-account-global) | 1 in 13 | $1.85 | 2.1% | 58 | 52.4 | 1.11× | | [IDF (Foil) Counter-Strike 2 Trading Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/idf-foil-counter-strike-2-trading-card) | 10.0% | $0.13 | 0.2% | 70 | 69.8 | 1.00× | | [VW Need for Speed™ Heat Trading Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vw-need-for-speed-heat-trading-card) | 10.0% | $0.06 | 0.1% | 75 | 69.8 | 1.07× | | [Anarchist Counter-Strike 2 Trading Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/anarchist-counter-strike-2-trading-card) | 10.0% | $0.04 | 0.1% | 75 | 69.8 | 1.07× | | [Steam Gems other](https://gambatracker.com/items/steam-gems) | 20.0% | $0.01 | 0.0% | 132 | 139.6 | 0.95× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=steam) [Steam Gems other](https://gambatracker.com/items/steam-gems) Hidden $7.48 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [7 Days to Die (PC) - Steam Account - GLOBAL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/7-days-to-die-pc-steam-account-global) [Graceful Dragon](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Graceful%20Dragon) $7.48 $2.60 0.35x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [Steam Gems other](https://gambatracker.com/items/steam-gems) Hidden $7.48 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [Steam Gems other](https://gambatracker.com/items/steam-gems) Hidden $7.48 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [VW Need for Speed™ Heat Trading Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vw-need-for-speed-heat-trading-card) Hidden $7.48 $0.06 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [Terraria (PC) - Steam Gift - GLOBAL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/terraria-pc-steam-gift-global) Hidden $7.48 $4.84 0.65x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [Steam Gems other](https://gambatracker.com/items/steam-gems) Hidden $7.48 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [Overcooked! 2 (PC) - Steam Key - GLOBAL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/overcooked-2-pc-steam-key-global) [Majestic Unicorn](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Majestic%20Unicorn) $7.48 $6.54 0.87x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [Overcooked! 2 (PC) - Steam Key - GLOBAL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/overcooked-2-pc-steam-key-global) Hidden $7.48 $6.54 0.87x 2026-11-11 06:49 UTC [Steam Gems other](https://gambatracker.com/items/steam-gems) Hidden $7.48 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.48 | 89.49% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt