--- title: "Sticker Bomb case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sticker Bomb ($8.22) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.40% from 18 items with odds, observed 99.08% over 338 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/sticker-bomb rendered: 2026-11-11T22:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Sticker Bomb](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/sticker-bomb) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Sticker Bomb A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/sticker-bomb?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/sticker-bomb?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/sticker-bomb) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/sticker-bomb?window=all) Price · $8.22 Advertised RTP · 89.40% · EV $7.35 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.08% · 338 openings, odds method Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 50 openings · below min 7 days · 102.76% ±19.02 289 openings 30 days · 99.08% ±17.59 338 openings since tracking started · 99.08% ±17.59 338 openings 28.0% 75.3% 122.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/sticker-bomb?window=24h) | 50 | 74.22% ±45.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/sticker-bomb?window=7d) | 289 | 102.76% ±19.0 | +1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/sticker-bomb) | 338 | 99.08% ±17.6 | +1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/sticker-bomb?window=all) | 338 | 99.08% ±17.6 | +1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 338 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Diamond Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/diamond-sticker) | 1 in 133 | $99.99 | 10.2% | 5 | 2.5 | 1.97× | | [Gold Crown Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gold-crown-sticker) | 1 in 100 | $60.00 | 8.2% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.78× | | [Chrome Hearts Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chrome-hearts-sticker) | 1 in 33 | $35.00 | 14.3% | 7 | 10.1 | 0.69× | | [VLONE Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vlone-sticker) | 1 in 20 | $27.00 | 18.4% | 12 | 16.9 | 0.71× | | [Cash Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cash-sticker) | 1 in 20 | $20.00 | 13.6% | 21 | 16.9 | 1.24× | | [Turbo Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/turbo-sticker) | 1 in 20 | $18.20 | 12.4% | 18 | 16.9 | 1.07× | | [Trapstar Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/trapstar-sticker) | 1 in 20 | $16.00 | 10.9% | 21 | 16.9 | 1.24× | | [Lean Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lean-sticker) | 1 in 20 | $8.50 | 5.8% | 10 | 16.9 | 0.59× | | [Smile Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/smile-sticker) | 1 in 20 | $2.31 | 1.6% | 12 | 16.9 | 0.71× | | [Lyrical Lemonade Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lyrical-lemonade-sticker) | 1 in 20 | $2.00 | 1.4% | 23 | 16.9 | 1.36× | | [Bearbrick Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-sticker) | 1 in 20 | $1.75 | 1.2% | 13 | 16.9 | 0.77× | | [Thrasher Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/thrasher-sticker) | 1 in 20 | $1.20 | 0.8% | 22 | 16.9 | 1.30× | | [Lobotomy Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lobotomy-sticker) | 1 in 13 | $0.46 | 0.5% | 24 | 25.4 | 0.95× | | [Social Anxiety Club Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/social-anxiety-club-sticker) | 1 in 13 | $0.39 | 0.4% | 19 | 25.4 | 0.75× | | [Happy Melted Face Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/happy-melted-face-sticker) | 1 in 13 | $0.22 | 0.2% | 28 | 25.4 | 1.10× | | [Smiling Flower Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/smiling-flower-sticker) | 1 in 13 | $0.20 | 0.2% | 29 | 25.4 | 1.14× | | [Panda Drip Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/panda-drip-sticker) | 1 in 13 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 26 | 25.4 | 1.03× | | [Car Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/car-sticker) | 12.8% | $0.01 | 0.0% | 42 | 43.1 | 0.97× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=sticker-bomb) [Car Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/car-sticker) Hidden $8.22 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [Car Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/car-sticker) Hidden $8.22 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [Car Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/car-sticker) Hidden $8.22 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [Panda Drip Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/panda-drip-sticker) Hidden $8.22 $0.06 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [Smiling Flower Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/smiling-flower-sticker) Hidden $8.22 $0.20 0.02x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [Happy Melted Face Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/happy-melted-face-sticker) [Majestic Unicorn](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Majestic%20Unicorn) $8.22 $0.22 0.03x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [Trapstar Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/trapstar-sticker) Hidden $8.22 $16.00 1.95x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC [Turbo Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/turbo-sticker) Hidden $8.22 $18.20 2.21x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC [Thrasher Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/thrasher-sticker) Hidden $8.22 $1.20 0.15x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC [Lobotomy Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lobotomy-sticker) Hidden $8.22 $0.46 0.06x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.22 | 89.40% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.40 on average: an expected loss of $10.60 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt