--- title: "Straw Hat Treasure case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Straw Hat Treasure ($42.68) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 100.18% over 279 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/straw-hat-treasure rendered: 2026-11-11T21:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Straw Hat Treasure](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/straw-hat-treasure) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Straw Hat Treasure A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/straw-hat-treasure?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/straw-hat-treasure?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/straw-hat-treasure) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/straw-hat-treasure?window=all) Price · $42.68 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $38.20 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.18% · 279 openings, odds method Variance · 7.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 27 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 9 openings · below min 7 days · 104.02% ±33.49 267 openings 30 days · 100.18% ±32.76 279 openings since tracking started · 100.18% ±32.76 279 openings -0.5% 119.3% 239.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/straw-hat-treasure?window=24h) | 9 | 56.13% ±182.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/straw-hat-treasure?window=7d) | 267 | 104.02% ±33.5 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/straw-hat-treasure) | 279 | 100.18% ±32.8 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/straw-hat-treasure?window=all) | 279 | 100.18% ±32.8 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 279 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Higround x One Piece Luffy Summit 65 Keyboard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/higround-x-one-piece-luffy-summit-65-keyboard) | 1 in 400 | $1,172 | 7.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Funko Pop! Rides One Piece Luffy with Thousand Sunny 2022 CCXP Exclusive Figure #114 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-rides-one-piece-luffy-with-thousand-sunny-2022-ccxp-exclusive-figure-114) | 1 in 200 | $893 | 11.7% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.15× | | [Casio G-Shock x One Piece GA-110JOP-1A4 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-x-one-piece-ga-110jop-1a4) | 1 in 400 | $860 | 5.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [One Piece - Kaido Portrait.Of.Pirates WA-MAXIMUM Limited Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/one-piece-kaido-portrait-of-pirates-wa-maximum-limited-figure) | 1 in 133 | $457 | 9.0% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× | | [One Piece Manga Box Set 3 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/one-piece-manga-box-set-3) | 1 in 100 | $320 | 8.4% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× | | [One Piece Manga Box Set 1 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/one-piece-manga-box-set-1) | 1 in 100 | $300 | 7.9% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.43× | | [One Piece Manga Box Set 2 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/one-piece-manga-box-set-2) | 1 in 100 | $300 | 7.9% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× | | [One Piece Manga Box Set 4 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/one-piece-manga-box-set-4) | 1 in 100 | $260 | 6.8% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× | | [Funko Pop! Animation One Piece Poster Gol D. Roger Summer Convention Edition Figure #1379 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-animation-one-piece-poster-gol-d-roger-summer-convention-edition-figure-1379) | 1 in 100 | $258 | 6.8% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× | | [One Piece - Boa Hancock Portrait.Of.Pirates Limited Edition Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/one-piece-boa-hancock-portrait-of-pirates-limited-edition-figure) | 1 in 80 | $150 | 4.9% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× | | [Vans Sk8-Hi One Piece Punk Hazard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vans-sk8-hi-one-piece-punk-hazard) | 1 in 50 | $83.00 | 4.3% | 4 | 5.6 | 0.72× | | [One Piece - Monkey D. Luffy Variable Action Heroes Figure (Ver.1.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/one-piece-monkey-d-luffy-variable-action-heroes-figure-ver-1-5) | 1 in 50 | $73.00 | 3.8% | 3 | 5.6 | 0.54× | | [Wanted: Monkey D. Luffy Displate other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wanted-monkey-d-luffy-displate) | 1 in 50 | $58.00 | 3.0% | 4 | 5.6 | 0.72× | | [One Piece Beanie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/one-piece-beanie) | 1 in 20 | $23.99 | 3.1% | 19 | 14.0 | 1.36× | | [One Piece - Luffy Straw Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/one-piece-luffy-straw-hat) | 1 in 17 | $20.00 | 3.1% | 11 | 16.7 | 0.66× | | [Zoro Earrings For Women other](https://gambatracker.com/items/zoro-earrings-for-women) | 15.0% | $7.50 | 2.9% | 38 | 41.9 | 0.91× | | [One Piece x Dim Mak - Luffy Enamel Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/one-piece-x-dim-mak-luffy-enamel-pin) | 30.0% | $2.60 | 2.0% | 81 | 83.7 | 0.97× | | [One Piece - Carrot PVC Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/one-piece-carrot-pvc-keychain) | 30.0% | $1.30 | 1.0% | 96 | 83.7 | 1.15× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Higround x One Piece Luffy Summit 65 Keyboard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/higround-x-one-piece-luffy-summit-65-keyboard) Hidden $42.68 $1,172 27.46x 2026-11-05 05:05 UTC [Funko Pop! Rides One Piece Luffy with Thousand Sunny 2022 CCXP Exclusive Figure #114 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-rides-one-piece-luffy-with-thousand-sunny-2022-ccxp-exclusive-figure-114) Hidden $42.68 $893 20.92x 2026-11-09 05:58 UTC [Funko Pop! Rides One Piece Luffy with Thousand Sunny 2022 CCXP Exclusive Figure #114 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-rides-one-piece-luffy-with-thousand-sunny-2022-ccxp-exclusive-figure-114) Hidden $42.68 $893 20.92x 2026-11-07 11:51 UTC [Funko Pop! Rides One Piece Luffy with Thousand Sunny 2022 CCXP Exclusive Figure #114 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-rides-one-piece-luffy-with-thousand-sunny-2022-ccxp-exclusive-figure-114) Hidden $42.68 $893 20.92x 2026-11-05 05:02 UTC [Casio G-Shock x One Piece GA-110JOP-1A4 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-x-one-piece-ga-110jop-1a4) Hidden $42.68 $860 20.15x 2026-11-09 13:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=straw-hat-treasure) [Vans Sk8-Hi One Piece Punk Hazard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vans-sk8-hi-one-piece-punk-hazard) Hidden $42.68 $83.00 1.94x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC [One Piece - Carrot PVC Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/one-piece-carrot-pvc-keychain) Hidden $42.68 $1.30 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC [One Piece - Carrot PVC Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/one-piece-carrot-pvc-keychain) Hidden $42.68 $1.30 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC [Wanted: Monkey D. Luffy Displate other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wanted-monkey-d-luffy-displate) Hidden $42.68 $58.00 1.36x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC [One Piece x Dim Mak - Luffy Enamel Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/one-piece-x-dim-mak-luffy-enamel-pin) Hidden $42.68 $2.60 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC [Zoro Earrings For Women other](https://gambatracker.com/items/zoro-earrings-for-women) [Trecky](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Trecky) $42.68 $7.50 0.18x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC [One Piece x Dim Mak - Luffy Enamel Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/one-piece-x-dim-mak-luffy-enamel-pin) Hidden $42.68 $2.60 0.06x 2026-11-11 08:28 UTC [One Piece - Carrot PVC Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/one-piece-carrot-pvc-keychain) Hidden $42.68 $1.30 0.03x 2026-11-11 08:28 UTC [Wanted: Monkey D. Luffy Displate other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wanted-monkey-d-luffy-displate) [Vaniooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Vaniooo) $42.68 $58.00 1.36x 2026-11-11 08:28 UTC [One Piece - Carrot PVC Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/one-piece-carrot-pvc-keychain) Hidden $42.68 $1.30 0.03x 2026-11-09 13:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $42.68 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $1,172 (27.46x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt