--- title: "Super Bowl Sunday case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Super Bowl Sunday ($167.79) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 12 items with odds, observed 131.71% over 44 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/super-bowl-sunday rendered: 2026-11-13T05:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Super Bowl Sunday](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/super-bowl-sunday) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Super Bowl Sunday A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/super-bowl-sunday?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/super-bowl-sunday?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/super-bowl-sunday) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/super-bowl-sunday?window=all) Price · $167.79 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $150.17 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 131.71% · 44 openings, odds method Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 36 openings · below min 30 days · 44 openings · below min since tracking started · 44 openings · below min 78.5% 137.8% 197.0% **Small sample.** 44 openings and 6.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/super-bowl-sunday?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/super-bowl-sunday?window=7d) | 36 | 138.30% ±58.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/super-bowl-sunday) | 44 | 131.71% ±52.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/super-bowl-sunday?window=all) | 44 | 131.71% ±52.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Tom Brady New England Patriots Autographed 2022 - Present Nike Limited Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tom-brady-new-england-patriots-autographed-2022-present-nike-limited-jersey) | 1 in 400 | $2,880 | 4.8% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs Autographed Super Bowl LVIII Duke Football other](https://gambatracker.com/items/patrick-mahomes-kansas-city-chiefs-autographed-super-bowl-lviii-duke-football) | 1 in 400 | $2,400 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Autographed Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tom Brady Fanatics Authentic Deluxe Framed 16" x 20" Super Bowl LV Champions Super Bowl LV Action Photograph other](https://gambatracker.com/items/autographed-tampa-bay-buccaneers-tom-brady-fanatics-authentic-deluxe-framed-16-x-20-super-bowl-lv-champions-super-bowl-lv-action-photograph) | 1 in 400 | $2,219 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Charles Woodson Packers Signed & Inscribed Riddell Speed Authentic Helmet LE /21 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charles-woodson-packers-signed-and-inscribed-riddell-speed-authentic-helmet-le-21) | 1 in 400 | $2,200 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Griese, Marino, Tagovailoa Dolphins Signed Speed Lunar Helmet LE /22 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/griese-marino-tagovailoa-dolphins-signed-speed-lunar-helmet-le-22) | 1 in 400 | $1,950 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Autographed Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tom Brady Fanatics Authentic 8" x 10" Super Bowl LV Champions Super Bowl LV Action Photograph other](https://gambatracker.com/items/autographed-tampa-bay-buccaneers-tom-brady-fanatics-authentic-8-x-10-super-bowl-lv-champions-super-bowl-lv-action-photograph) | 1 in 400 | $1,920 | 3.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Jason Witten Cowboys Signed & Inscribed 2022 Salute to Service Helmet LE /6 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jason-witten-cowboys-signed-and-inscribed-2022-salute-to-service-helmet-le-6) | 1 in 100 | $960 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl LIX Champions WWE Legacy Title Belt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/philadelphia-eagles-super-bowl-lix-champions-wwe-legacy-title-belt) | 1 in 33 | $659 | 13.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× | | [Super Bowl LIX Wilson Pro Football other](https://gambatracker.com/items/super-bowl-lix-wilson-pro-football) | 10.0% | $240 | 16.0% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.14× | | [Unisex FENTY for Mitchell & Ness White Super Bowl LVII Icon Pullover Hoodie (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/unisex-fenty-for-mitchell-and-ness-white-super-bowl-lvii-icon-pullover-hoodie-us-l) | 14.5% | $144 | 13.9% | 10 | 6.4 | 1.57× | | [Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl LIX Champions 14" x 26" Framed Art Vinyl Album Print other](https://gambatracker.com/items/philadelphia-eagles-super-bowl-lix-champions-14-x-26-framed-art-vinyl-album-print) | 30.0% | $80.00 | 16.0% | 13 | 13.2 | 0.98× | | [Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl LIX Champions 13" x 13" Framed Art Vinyl Record Print other](https://gambatracker.com/items/philadelphia-eagles-super-bowl-lix-champions-13-x-13-framed-art-vinyl-record-print) | 40.0% | $45.00 | 12.0% | 13 | 17.6 | 0.74× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 13 Nov, 02:20 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Tom Brady New England Patriots Autographed 2022 - Present Nike Limited Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tom-brady-new-england-patriots-autographed-2022-present-nike-limited-jersey) Hidden $168 $2,880 17.16x 2026-11-08 20:12 UTC [Autographed Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tom Brady Fanatics Authentic 8" x 10" Super Bowl LV Champions Super Bowl LV Action Photograph other](https://gambatracker.com/items/autographed-tampa-bay-buccaneers-tom-brady-fanatics-authentic-8-x-10-super-bowl-lv-champions-super-bowl-lv-action-photograph) [Nie](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Nie) $168 $1,920 11.44x 2026-11-10 07:03 UTC [Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl LIX Champions WWE Legacy Title Belt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/philadelphia-eagles-super-bowl-lix-champions-wwe-legacy-title-belt) Hidden $168 $659 3.93x 2026-11-03 01:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=super-bowl-sunday) [Super Bowl LIX Wilson Pro Football other](https://gambatracker.com/items/super-bowl-lix-wilson-pro-football) Hidden $168 $240 1.43x 2026-11-10 07:03 UTC [Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl LIX Champions 13" x 13" Framed Art Vinyl Record Print other](https://gambatracker.com/items/philadelphia-eagles-super-bowl-lix-champions-13-x-13-framed-art-vinyl-record-print) Hidden $168 $45.00 0.27x 2026-11-10 07:03 UTC [Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl LIX Champions 14" x 26" Framed Art Vinyl Album Print other](https://gambatracker.com/items/philadelphia-eagles-super-bowl-lix-champions-14-x-26-framed-art-vinyl-album-print) Hidden $168 $80.00 0.48x 2026-11-10 07:03 UTC [Unisex FENTY for Mitchell & Ness White Super Bowl LVII Icon Pullover Hoodie (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/unisex-fenty-for-mitchell-and-ness-white-super-bowl-lvii-icon-pullover-hoodie-us-l) Hidden $168 $144 0.86x 2026-11-10 07:03 UTC [Unisex FENTY for Mitchell & Ness White Super Bowl LVII Icon Pullover Hoodie (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/unisex-fenty-for-mitchell-and-ness-white-super-bowl-lvii-icon-pullover-hoodie-us-l) Hidden $168 $144 0.86x 2026-11-10 07:03 UTC [Autographed Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tom Brady Fanatics Authentic 8" x 10" Super Bowl LV Champions Super Bowl LV Action Photograph other](https://gambatracker.com/items/autographed-tampa-bay-buccaneers-tom-brady-fanatics-authentic-8-x-10-super-bowl-lv-champions-super-bowl-lv-action-photograph) [Nie](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Nie) $168 $1,920 11.44x 2026-11-10 07:03 UTC [Tom Brady New England Patriots Autographed 2022 - Present Nike Limited Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tom-brady-new-england-patriots-autographed-2022-present-nike-limited-jersey) Hidden $168 $2,880 17.16x 2026-11-08 20:12 UTC [Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl LIX Champions 13" x 13" Framed Art Vinyl Record Print other](https://gambatracker.com/items/philadelphia-eagles-super-bowl-lix-champions-13-x-13-framed-art-vinyl-record-print) Hidden $168 $45.00 0.27x 2026-11-08 20:12 UTC [Unisex FENTY for Mitchell & Ness White Super Bowl LVII Icon Pullover Hoodie (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/unisex-fenty-for-mitchell-and-ness-white-super-bowl-lvii-icon-pullover-hoodie-us-l) Hidden $168 $144 0.86x 2026-11-08 20:12 UTC [Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl LIX Champions 13" x 13" Framed Art Vinyl Record Print other](https://gambatracker.com/items/philadelphia-eagles-super-bowl-lix-champions-13-x-13-framed-art-vinyl-record-print) Hidden $168 $45.00 0.27x 2026-11-08 20:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $168 | 89.50% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $2,880 (17.16x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt