---
title: "Supreme Leader case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Supreme Leader ($87.20) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 82.59% over 500 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-leader
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Supreme Leader](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-leader)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Supreme Leader

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-leader?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-leader?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-leader) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-leader?window=all)

Price · $87.20

Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $78.04 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.59% · 500 openings, odds method

Variance · 12.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 42 openings · below min

7 days · 69.64% ±33.37 446 openings

30 days · 82.59% ±31.52 500 openings

since tracking started · 82.59% ±31.52 500 openings

-0.5% 82.8% 166.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-leader?window=24h) | 42 | 56.54% ±108.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-leader?window=7d) | 446 | 69.64% ±33.4 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-leader) | 500 | 82.59% ±31.5 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-leader?window=all) | 500 | 82.59% ±31.5 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 500 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Supreme x Louis Vuitton Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt Red (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-x-louis-vuitton-box-logo-hooded-sweatshirt-red-us-l) | 1 in 500 | $5,469 | 14.0% | 2 | 1.0 | 2.00× |
| [Louis Vuitton x Supreme Slender Wallet Epi Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-x-supreme-slender-wallet-epi-red) | 1 in 333 | $2,000 | 7.7% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [Supreme x Louis Vuitton City Mask SP Sunglasses Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-x-louis-vuitton-city-mask-sp-sunglasses-black) | 1 in 200 | $1,282 | 8.2% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× |
| [Supreme Bandana Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt Heather Grey (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-bandana-box-logo-hooded-sweatshirt-heather-grey-us-xl) | 1 in 100 | $900 | 11.5% | 2 | 5.0 | 0.40× |
| [Supreme Coleman Folding Table Set Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-coleman-folding-table-set-red) | 1 in 100 | $675 | 8.6% | 1 | 5.0 | 0.20× |
| [Supreme Box Logo Crewneck (FW18) Ash Grey (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-box-logo-crewneck-fw18-ash-grey-us-l) | 1 in 50 | $630 | 16.1% | 9 | 10.0 | 0.90× |
| [Supreme Canvas Backpack White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-canvas-backpack-white) | 1 in 50 | $245 | 6.3% | 13 | 10.0 | 1.30× |
| [Supreme Bandana Box Logo Tee Navy (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-bandana-box-logo-tee-navy-us-l) | 1 in 50 | $225 | 5.8% | 11 | 10.0 | 1.10× |
| [Supreme Bandana Box Logo Tee Red (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-bandana-box-logo-tee-red-us-m) | 1 in 50 | $200 | 5.1% | 10 | 10.0 | 1.00× |
| [Supreme Woven Shoulder Bag (SS24) Royal other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-woven-shoulder-bag-ss24-royal) | 1 in 50 | $99.00 | 2.5% | 12 | 10.0 | 1.20× |
| [Supreme Seiko Alarm Clock White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-seiko-alarm-clock-white) | 1 in 50 | $78.00 | 2.0% | 6 | 10.0 | 0.60× |
| [Supreme Halftone Lightweight Balaclava Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-halftone-lightweight-balaclava-red) | 1 in 50 | $66.00 | 1.7% | 8 | 10.0 | 0.80× |
| [Supreme Leaktite 5-Gallon Bucket White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-leaktite-5-gallon-bucket-white) | 1 in 33 | $61.00 | 2.3% | 19 | 15.0 | 1.27× |
| [Supreme Ripstop Keychain Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-ripstop-keychain-black) | 1 in 20 | $55.00 | 3.5% | 28 | 25.0 | 1.12× |
| [Supreme Hav-A-Hank Bandanas (3 Pack) Multicolor other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-hav-a-hank-bandanas-3-pack-multicolor) | 1 in 20 | $44.55 | 2.9% | 25 | 25.0 | 1.00× |
| [Supreme Cookie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-cookie) | 1 in 20 | $10.00 | 0.6% | 33 | 25.0 | 1.32× |
| [Supreme Burberry Box Logo Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-burberry-box-logo-sticker) | 10.0% | $5.00 | 0.6% | 48 | 50.0 | 0.96× |
| [Supreme Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-sticker) | 55.0% | $0.50 | 0.4% | 271 | 275.0 | 0.99× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Supreme x Louis Vuitton Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt Red (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-x-louis-vuitton-box-logo-hooded-sweatshirt-red-us-l) Hidden $87.20 $5,469 62.72x 2026-11-10 09:49 UTC

[Supreme x Louis Vuitton Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt Red (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-x-louis-vuitton-box-logo-hooded-sweatshirt-red-us-l) Hidden $87.20 $5,469 62.72x 2026-11-04 18:41 UTC

[Supreme x Louis Vuitton City Mask SP Sunglasses Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-x-louis-vuitton-city-mask-sp-sunglasses-black) Hidden $87.20 $1,282 14.70x 2026-11-06 03:10 UTC

[Supreme x Louis Vuitton City Mask SP Sunglasses Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-x-louis-vuitton-city-mask-sp-sunglasses-black) Hidden $87.20 $1,282 14.70x 2026-11-05 03:50 UTC

[Supreme Bandana Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt Heather Grey (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-bandana-box-logo-hooded-sweatshirt-heather-grey-us-xl) Hidden $87.20 $900 10.32x 2026-11-07 11:21 UTC

[Supreme Bandana Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt Heather Grey (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-bandana-box-logo-hooded-sweatshirt-heather-grey-us-xl) Hidden $87.20 $900 10.32x 2026-11-02 22:03 UTC

[Supreme Coleman Folding Table Set Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-coleman-folding-table-set-red) Hidden $87.20 $675 7.74x 2026-11-03 16:53 UTC

[Supreme Box Logo Crewneck (FW18) Ash Grey (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-box-logo-crewneck-fw18-ash-grey-us-l) Hidden $87.20 $630 7.22x 2026-11-10 23:56 UTC

[Supreme Box Logo Crewneck (FW18) Ash Grey (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-box-logo-crewneck-fw18-ash-grey-us-l) [CODE: FREEMAN 400$ LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/CODE%3A%20FREEMAN%20400%24%20LB) $87.20 $630 7.22x 2026-11-10 14:26 UTC

[Supreme Box Logo Crewneck (FW18) Ash Grey (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-box-logo-crewneck-fw18-ash-grey-us-l) [GoodLuckHaveFun](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/GoodLuckHaveFun) $87.20 $630 7.22x 2026-11-09 22:20 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=supreme-leader)

[Supreme Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-sticker) Hidden $87.20 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[Supreme Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-sticker) Hidden $87.20 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[Supreme Woven Shoulder Bag (SS24) Royal other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-woven-shoulder-bag-ss24-royal) Hidden $87.20 $99.00 1.14x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[Supreme Burberry Box Logo Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-burberry-box-logo-sticker) Hidden $87.20 $5.00 0.06x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[Supreme Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-sticker) Hidden $87.20 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[Supreme Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-sticker) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $87.20 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[Supreme Ripstop Keychain Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-ripstop-keychain-black) Hidden $87.20 $55.00 0.63x 2026-11-10 23:56 UTC

[Supreme Halftone Lightweight Balaclava Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-halftone-lightweight-balaclava-red) Hidden $87.20 $66.00 0.76x 2026-11-10 23:56 UTC

[Supreme Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-sticker) Hidden $87.20 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-10 23:56 UTC

[Supreme Cookie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-cookie) Hidden $87.20 $10.00 0.11x 2026-11-10 23:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $87.20 | 89.50% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $5,469 (62.72x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt