--- title: "Supreme Lottery case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Supreme Lottery ($1.77) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.34% from 22 items with odds, observed 79.71% over 10K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-lottery rendered: 2026-11-12T00:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Supreme Lottery](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-lottery) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Supreme Lottery A box on Cases.gg (Budget), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-lottery?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-lottery?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-lottery) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-lottery?window=all) Price · $1.77 Advertised RTP · 89.34% · EV $1.58 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.71% · 10K openings, odds method Variance · 59.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.07% ±37.28 1,645 openings 7 days · 81.47% ±16.73 8,172 openings 30 days · 79.71% ±15.11 10K openings since tracking started · 79.71% ±15.11 10K openings 47.0% 85.0% 123.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-lottery?window=24h) | 1,645 | 85.07% ±37.3 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-lottery?window=7d) | 8,172 | 81.47% ±16.7 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-lottery) | 10K | 79.71% ±15.1 | −1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-lottery?window=all) | 10K | 79.71% ±15.1 | −1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Supreme x Louis Vuitton Monogram Scarf Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-x-louis-vuitton-monogram-scarf-red) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,500 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Supreme x Louis Vuitton City Mask SP Sunglasses Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-x-louis-vuitton-city-mask-sp-sunglasses-black) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,282 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Supreme Nike Leather Duffle Bag Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-nike-leather-duffle-bag-red) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,132 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Supreme Bandana Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt Red (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-bandana-box-logo-hooded-sweatshirt-red-us-xl) | 1 in 100,000 | $789 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Nike SB Dunk LowSupreme Stars Hyper Royal (2021) (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-lowsupreme-stars-hyper-royal-2021-us-8) | 1 in 100,000 | $445 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Supreme Burberry Box Logo Tee White (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-burberry-box-logo-tee-white-us-m) | 1 in 100,000 | $420 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low Supreme Baroque Brown (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-supreme-baroque-brown-us-9) | 1 in 10,000 | $315 | 2.0% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [Supreme Hot Wheels Fleet Flyer + 1992 BMW M3 Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-hot-wheels-fleet-flyer-1992-bmw-m3-red) | 1 in 50,000 | $300 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Supreme Canvas Backpack White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-canvas-backpack-white) | 1 in 10,000 | $245 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [Supreme Uncut Box Logo Skateboard Deck Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-uncut-box-logo-skateboard-deck-red) | 1 in 1,000 | $185 | 11.7% | 9 | 10.0 | 0.90× | | [Supreme Mac Tools Tote Tray Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-mac-tools-tote-tray-red) | 1 in 20,000 | $170 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low Supreme White (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-supreme-white-us-8) | 1 in 20,000 | $160 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Supreme Toy Machine Skateboard Deck Multicolor other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-toy-machine-skateboard-deck-multicolor) | 1 in 10,000 | $159 | 1.0% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.99× | | [Supreme Bandana Box Logo Tee White (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-bandana-box-logo-tee-white-us-m) | 1 in 20,000 | $150 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Supreme Cargo Container Electric Fan Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-cargo-container-electric-fan-red) | 1 in 10,000 | $130 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× | | [Supreme Box Logo L/S Tee White (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-box-logo-l-s-tee-white-us-m) | 1 in 10,000 | $125 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.99× | | [Supreme Shoulder Bag (SS24) Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-shoulder-bag-ss24-black) | 1 in 1,000 | $99.00 | 6.3% | 8 | 10.0 | 0.80× | | [Supreme Leather Key Loop Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-leather-key-loop-red) | 1 in 1,000 | $88.00 | 5.6% | 10 | 10.0 | 1.00× | | [Supreme Seiko Alarm Clock White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-seiko-alarm-clock-white) | 1 in 10,000 | $78.00 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× | | [Supreme Cookie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-cookie) | 1 in 20 | $10.00 | 31.6% | 509 | 502.3 | 1.01× | | [Supreme Burberry Box Logo Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-burberry-box-logo-sticker) | 10.0% | $5.00 | 31.6% | 941 | 1004.6 | 0.94× | | [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) | 84.6% | $0.01 | 0.5% | 8,562 | 8500.6 | 1.01× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Supreme Uncut Box Logo Skateboard Deck Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-uncut-box-logo-skateboard-deck-red) [jza](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/jza) $1.77 $185 104.5x 2026-11-11 19:45 UTC [Supreme Uncut Box Logo Skateboard Deck Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-uncut-box-logo-skateboard-deck-red) [Vxpiix](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Vxpiix) $1.77 $185 104.5x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [Supreme Uncut Box Logo Skateboard Deck Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-uncut-box-logo-skateboard-deck-red) [VBoom\_CODE\_JUSTSAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/VBoom_CODE_JUSTSAN) $1.77 $185 104.5x 2026-11-10 08:52 UTC [Supreme Uncut Box Logo Skateboard Deck Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-uncut-box-logo-skateboard-deck-red) [lamronkon](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/lamronkon) $1.77 $185 104.5x 2026-11-09 05:51 UTC [Supreme Uncut Box Logo Skateboard Deck Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-uncut-box-logo-skateboard-deck-red) [Antwin](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Antwin) $1.77 $185 104.5x 2026-11-08 15:11 UTC [Supreme Uncut Box Logo Skateboard Deck Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-uncut-box-logo-skateboard-deck-red) Hidden $1.77 $185 104.5x 2026-11-06 23:05 UTC [Supreme Uncut Box Logo Skateboard Deck Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-uncut-box-logo-skateboard-deck-red) Hidden $1.77 $185 104.5x 2026-11-05 21:36 UTC [Supreme Uncut Box Logo Skateboard Deck Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-uncut-box-logo-skateboard-deck-red) Hidden $1.77 $185 104.5x 2026-11-05 21:05 UTC [Supreme Uncut Box Logo Skateboard Deck Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-uncut-box-logo-skateboard-deck-red) Hidden $1.77 $185 104.5x 2026-11-04 21:45 UTC [Supreme Toy Machine Skateboard Deck Multicolor other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-toy-machine-skateboard-deck-multicolor) Hidden $1.77 $159 89.83x 2026-11-09 18:18 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=supreme-lottery) [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $1.77 $0.01 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:14 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $1.77 $0.01 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:14 UTC [Supreme Leather Key Loop Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-leather-key-loop-red) Hidden $1.77 $88.00 49.72x 2026-11-11 23:14 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $1.77 $0.01 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:14 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $1.77 $0.01 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:14 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) [Friendly Camel](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Friendly%20Camel) $1.77 $0.01 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:14 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $1.77 $0.01 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:59 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $1.77 $0.01 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:59 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $1.77 $0.01 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:59 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) [blokey](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/blokey) $1.77 $0.01 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.77 | 89.34% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $185 (104.5x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.34 on average: an expected loss of $10.66 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt