--- title: "Supreme Surprise case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Supreme Surprise ($26.40) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 26 items with odds, observed 101.92% over 1,895 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-surprise rendered: 2026-11-11T22:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Supreme Surprise](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-surprise) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Supreme Surprise A box on Cases.gg (Hypebeast), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-surprise?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-surprise?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-surprise) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-surprise?window=all) Price · $26.40 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $23.63 from 26 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.92% · 1,895 openings, odds method Variance · 66.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 115 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 134 openings · below min 7 days · 103.69% ±38.43 1,732 openings 30 days · 101.92% ±36.74 1,895 openings since tracking started · 101.92% ±36.74 1,895 openings -0.5% 120.5% 241.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-surprise?window=24h) | 134 | 102.46% ±138.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-surprise?window=7d) | 1,732 | 103.69% ±38.4 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-surprise) | 1,895 | 101.92% ±36.7 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/supreme-surprise?window=all) | 1,895 | 101.92% ±36.7 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,895 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Supreme x Louis Vuitton Jacquard Denim Chore Coat Blue (EU 50) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-x-louis-vuitton-jacquard-denim-chore-coat-blue-eu-50) | 1 in 10,000 | $14K | 5.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Louis Vuitton x Supreme Initiales Belt 40 MM Monogram Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-x-supreme-initiales-belt-40-mm-monogram-red) | 1 in 5,000 | $7,300 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Supreme x Louis Vuitton Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt Red (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-x-louis-vuitton-box-logo-hooded-sweatshirt-red-us-l) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,469 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Supreme Burberry Shearling Collar Down Puffer Jacket Beige (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-burberry-shearling-collar-down-puffer-jacket-beige-us-xl) | 1 in 5,000 | $3,090 | 2.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Supreme x Louis Vuitton City Mask SP Sunglasses Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-x-louis-vuitton-city-mask-sp-sunglasses-red) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,520 | 2.1% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [Supreme x Louis Vuitton Monogram Scarf Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-x-louis-vuitton-monogram-scarf-red) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,500 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Supreme Swarovski Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt Navy (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-swarovski-box-logo-hooded-sweatshirt-navy-us-xl) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,480 | 2.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Supreme Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt Camo (US S) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-box-logo-hooded-sweatshirt-camo-us-s) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,243 | 2.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Supreme Nike Leather Duffle Bag Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-nike-leather-duffle-bag-red) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,132 | 4.8% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.06× | | [Louis Vuitton x Supreme Dice Key Chain Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-x-supreme-dice-key-chain-red) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,078 | 3.7% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.98× | | [Supreme Cross Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt Heather Grey (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-cross-box-logo-hooded-sweatshirt-heather-grey-us-xl) | 1 in 1,111 | $900 | 3.4% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.35× | | [Supreme Flags Skateboard Deck Multi other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-flags-skateboard-deck-multi) | 1 in 1,000 | $750 | 3.2% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.11× | | [Supreme Logo Backpack Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-logo-backpack-blue) | 1 in 625 | $700 | 4.7% | 6 | 3.0 | 1.98× | | [Supreme Coleman Folding Table Set Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-coleman-folding-table-set-red) | 1 in 667 | $675 | 4.3% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× | | [Supreme Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt (FW17) Black (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-box-logo-hooded-sweatshirt-fw17-black-us-m) | 1 in 1,000 | $638 | 2.7% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.06× | | [Supreme Logo Backpack White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-logo-backpack-white) | 1 in 769 | $550 | 3.0% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× | | [Supreme Tiffany & Co. Box Logo Tee White (Size M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-tiffany-and-co-box-logo-tee-white-size-m) | 1 in 1,000 | $500 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× | | [Supreme Chain License Plate Frame Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-chain-license-plate-frame-gold) | 1 in 333 | $375 | 4.8% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.23× | | [Supreme Fox Racing Goggles Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-fox-racing-goggles-red) | 1 in 500 | $355 | 3.0% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.32× | | [Supreme AO 24-Pack Cooler Bag Trebark Camo other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-ao-24-pack-cooler-bag-trebark-camo) | 1 in 400 | $250 | 2.6% | 6 | 4.7 | 1.27× | | [Supreme Leather Waist Bag Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-leather-waist-bag-red) | 1 in 333 | $250 | 3.2% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.88× | | [Supreme Floating Keychain (Set of 3) Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-floating-keychain-set-of-3-black) | 1 in 56 | $99.00 | 7.5% | 32 | 34.1 | 0.94× | | [Supreme Hanes Boxer Briefs (4 Pack) Black (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-hanes-boxer-briefs-4-pack-black-us-xl) | 1 in 43 | $96.00 | 9.3% | 42 | 43.6 | 0.96× | | [Supreme Shoulder Bag (SS24) Orange other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-shoulder-bag-ss24-orange) | 1 in 87 | $71.00 | 3.5% | 21 | 21.8 | 0.96× | | [Supreme Ripstop Keychain Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-ripstop-keychain-black) | 1 in 40 | $55.00 | 5.8% | 61 | 47.4 | 1.29× | | [Supreme Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-sticker) | 90.0% | $0.50 | 1.9% | 1,686 | 1705.5 | 0.99× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Supreme Burberry Shearling Collar Down Puffer Jacket Beige (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-burberry-shearling-collar-down-puffer-jacket-beige-us-xl) Hidden $26.40 $3,090 117.0x 2026-11-05 17:58 UTC [Supreme x Louis Vuitton City Mask SP Sunglasses Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-x-louis-vuitton-city-mask-sp-sunglasses-red) Hidden $26.40 $2,520 95.45x 2026-11-09 13:24 UTC [Supreme x Louis Vuitton City Mask SP Sunglasses Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-x-louis-vuitton-city-mask-sp-sunglasses-red) [Oli](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Oli) $26.40 $2,520 95.45x 2026-11-05 18:21 UTC [Supreme Swarovski Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt Navy (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-swarovski-box-logo-hooded-sweatshirt-navy-us-xl) Hidden $26.40 $1,480 56.06x 2026-11-03 20:15 UTC [Supreme Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt Camo (US S) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-box-logo-hooded-sweatshirt-camo-us-s) [Anonymous542447](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Anonymous542447) $26.40 $1,243 47.08x 2026-11-06 01:44 UTC [Supreme Nike Leather Duffle Bag Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-nike-leather-duffle-bag-red) Hidden $26.40 $1,132 42.88x 2026-11-06 23:57 UTC [Supreme Nike Leather Duffle Bag Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-nike-leather-duffle-bag-red) [DrwsyCoconut](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/DrwsyCoconut) $26.40 $1,132 42.88x 2026-11-06 09:42 UTC [Louis Vuitton x Supreme Dice Key Chain Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-x-supreme-dice-key-chain-red) [Swift Ibex](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Swift%20Ibex) $26.40 $1,078 40.83x 2026-11-09 06:07 UTC [Louis Vuitton x Supreme Dice Key Chain Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-x-supreme-dice-key-chain-red) Hidden $26.40 $1,078 40.83x 2026-11-08 20:47 UTC [Louis Vuitton x Supreme Dice Key Chain Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-x-supreme-dice-key-chain-red) Hidden $26.40 $1,078 40.83x 2026-11-06 23:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=supreme-surprise) [Supreme Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-sticker) Hidden $26.40 $0.50 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:36 UTC [Supreme Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-sticker) Hidden $26.40 $0.50 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:36 UTC [Supreme Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-sticker) Hidden $26.40 $0.50 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:36 UTC [Supreme Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-sticker) Hidden $26.40 $0.50 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:36 UTC [Supreme Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-sticker) Hidden $26.40 $0.50 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:36 UTC [Supreme Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-sticker) [SnupsBar](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/SnupsBar) $26.40 $0.50 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:36 UTC [Supreme Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-sticker) Hidden $26.40 $0.50 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:17 UTC [Supreme Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-sticker) Hidden $26.40 $0.50 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:17 UTC [Supreme Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-sticker) Hidden $26.40 $0.50 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:17 UTC [Supreme Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-sticker) Hidden $26.40 $0.50 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.40 | 89.49% | 26 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $3,090 (117.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt