--- title: "Survival Kit case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Survival Kit ($0.66) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.28% from 18 items with odds, observed 81.41% over 8,820 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/survival-kit rendered: 2026-11-11T19:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Survival Kit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/survival-kit) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Survival Kit A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/survival-kit?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/survival-kit?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/survival-kit) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/survival-kit?window=all) Price · $0.66 Advertised RTP · 89.28% · EV $0.59 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.41% · 8,820 openings, odds method Variance · 31.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 72 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 65.83% ±50.92 467 openings 7 days · 78.31% ±13.10 7,060 openings 30 days · 81.41% ±11.72 8,820 openings since tracking started · 81.41% ±11.72 8,820 openings 14.5% 66.0% 117.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/survival-kit?window=24h) | 467 | 65.83% ±50.9 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/survival-kit?window=7d) | 7,060 | 78.31% ±13.1 | −1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/survival-kit) | 8,820 | 81.41% ±11.7 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/survival-kit?window=all) | 8,820 | 81.41% ±11.7 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,120 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Fiskars Survival Axe other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fiskars-survival-axe) | 1 in 5,000 | $85.00 | 2.9% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× | | [First Aid Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/first-aid-kit) | 1 in 2,000 | $69.00 | 5.9% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.32× | | [Portable Solar Charger other](https://gambatracker.com/items/portable-solar-charger) | 1 in 1,429 | $60.00 | 7.1% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.94× | | [Mini Gas Stove other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mini-gas-stove) | 1 in 1,000 | $47.00 | 8.0% | 8 | 9.1 | 0.88× | | [Stainless Steel Multitool other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stainless-steel-multitool) | 1 in 500 | $34.50 | 11.7% | 16 | 18.2 | 0.88× | | [Firestarter Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/firestarter-kit) | 1 in 500 | $20.00 | 6.8% | 12 | 18.2 | 0.66× | | [LED Headlamp other](https://gambatracker.com/items/led-headlamp) | 1 in 400 | $16.99 | 7.2% | 20 | 22.8 | 0.88× | | [Paracord Bracelet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-bracelet) | 1 in 200 | $12.00 | 10.2% | 45 | 45.6 | 0.99× | | [Camping Utensil Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/camping-utensil-set) | 1 in 200 | $8.99 | 7.6% | 40 | 45.6 | 0.88× | | [Water Purification Tablets other](https://gambatracker.com/items/water-purification-tablets) | 1 in 200 | $5.00 | 4.2% | 48 | 45.6 | 1.05× | | [Windproof Matches other](https://gambatracker.com/items/windproof-matches) | 1 in 200 | $5.00 | 4.2% | 34 | 45.6 | 0.75× | | [Natural Pine Soap other](https://gambatracker.com/items/natural-pine-soap) | 1 in 200 | $4.00 | 3.4% | 42 | 45.6 | 0.92× | | [Bird Whistle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bird-whistle) | 1 in 133 | $3.00 | 3.8% | 57 | 68.4 | 0.83× | | [Emergency Blanket other](https://gambatracker.com/items/emergency-blanket) | 1 in 133 | $2.99 | 3.8% | 73 | 68.4 | 1.07× | | [Compass other](https://gambatracker.com/items/compass) | 1 in 80 | $1.30 | 2.8% | 95 | 114.0 | 0.83× | | [Campfire Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/campfire-pin) | 1 in 20 | $0.35 | 3.0% | 431 | 456.0 | 0.95× | | [Pine Cone Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pine-cone-keychain) | 10.0% | $0.20 | 3.4% | 947 | 912.0 | 1.04× | | [Realistic Mushroom Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/realistic-mushroom-pin) | 78.9% | $0.03 | 4.0% | 7,239 | 7192.0 | 1.01× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Fiskars Survival Axe other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fiskars-survival-axe) Hidden $0.66 $85.00 128.8x 2026-11-06 03:52 UTC [First Aid Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/first-aid-kit) Hidden $0.66 $69.00 104.5x 2026-11-09 22:00 UTC [First Aid Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/first-aid-kit) Hidden $0.66 $69.00 104.5x 2026-11-09 04:00 UTC [First Aid Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/first-aid-kit) [Harrison Wells](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Harrison%20Wells) $0.66 $69.00 104.5x 2026-11-06 21:47 UTC [First Aid Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/first-aid-kit) [SavagePlays](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/SavagePlays) $0.66 $69.00 104.5x 2026-11-04 13:24 UTC [First Aid Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/first-aid-kit) Hidden $0.66 $69.00 104.5x 2026-11-04 13:23 UTC [First Aid Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/first-aid-kit) Hidden $0.66 $69.00 104.5x 2026-11-03 18:13 UTC [Portable Solar Charger other](https://gambatracker.com/items/portable-solar-charger) Hidden $0.66 $60.00 90.91x 2026-11-09 22:04 UTC [Portable Solar Charger other](https://gambatracker.com/items/portable-solar-charger) Hidden $0.66 $60.00 90.91x 2026-11-09 05:11 UTC [Portable Solar Charger other](https://gambatracker.com/items/portable-solar-charger) Hidden $0.66 $60.00 90.91x 2026-11-09 04:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=survival-kit) [Realistic Mushroom Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/realistic-mushroom-pin) Hidden $0.66 $0.03 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [Realistic Mushroom Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/realistic-mushroom-pin) Hidden $0.66 $0.03 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [Realistic Mushroom Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/realistic-mushroom-pin) Hidden $0.66 $0.03 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [Realistic Mushroom Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/realistic-mushroom-pin) Hidden $0.66 $0.03 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [Realistic Mushroom Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/realistic-mushroom-pin) Hidden $0.66 $0.03 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [Realistic Mushroom Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/realistic-mushroom-pin) [SavagePlays](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/SavagePlays) $0.66 $0.03 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [Realistic Mushroom Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/realistic-mushroom-pin) Hidden $0.66 $0.03 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [Realistic Mushroom Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/realistic-mushroom-pin) Hidden $0.66 $0.03 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [Realistic Mushroom Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/realistic-mushroom-pin) Hidden $0.66 $0.03 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [Realistic Mushroom Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/realistic-mushroom-pin) Hidden $0.66 $0.03 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.66 | 89.28% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $85.00 (128.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.28 on average: an expected loss of $10.72 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt