--- title: "Ten Past Ten case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ten Past Ten ($272.11) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 29 items with odds, observed 100.95% over 138 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ten-past-ten rendered: 2026-11-12T01:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Ten Past Ten](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ten-past-ten) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Ten Past Ten A box on Cases.gg (Watches), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ten-past-ten?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ten-past-ten?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ten-past-ten) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ten-past-ten?window=all) Price · $272.11 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $243.53 from 29 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.95% · 138 openings, odds method Variance · 30.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 78 openings · below min 30 days · 100.95% ±92.51 138 openings since tracking started · 100.95% ±92.51 138 openings -0.5% 104.5% 209.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ten-past-ten?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ten-past-ten?window=7d) | 78 | 86.02% ±123.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ten-past-ten) | 138 | 100.95% ±92.5 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ten-past-ten?window=all) | 138 | 100.95% ±92.5 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 138 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Tourbillon other](https://gambatracker.com/items/audemars-piguet-royal-oak-tourbillon) | 1 in 100,000 | $231K | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712/1R Moon Phases Full Rose Gold (New Model) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/patek-philippe-nautilus-5712-1r-moon-phases-full-rose-gold-new-model) | 1 in 100,000 | $226K | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Rolex Daytona Cosmograph Daytona other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-daytona-cosmograph-daytona) | 1 in 100,000 | $138K | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Patek Philippe Nautilus Blue Dial Stainless Steel 37.5mm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/patek-philippe-nautilus-blue-dial-stainless-steel-37-5mm) | 1 in 100,000 | $67.7K | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Rolex Day-Date 40 228235 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-day-date-40-228235) | 1 in 100,000 | $61.6K | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Rolex Day-Date 40 Yellow Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-day-date-40-yellow-gold) | 1 in 100,000 | $52.5K | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Chronograph other](https://gambatracker.com/items/audemars-piguet-royal-oak-chronograph) | 1 in 50,000 | $42.1K | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Rolex Daytona Rose Gold Chocolate Arabic Dial other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-daytona-rose-gold-chocolate-arabic-dial) | 1 in 50,000 | $38K | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Rolex GMT-Master II Pepsi other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-gmt-master-ii-pepsi) | 1 in 10,000 | $30K | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Rolex GMT-Master II Batman other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-gmt-master-ii-batman) | 1 in 10,000 | $21K | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Offshore Diver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/audemars-piguet-royal-oak-offshore-diver) | 1 in 5,000 | $21K | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Rolex Submariner Date other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-submariner-date) | 1 in 2,000 | $17K | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [ROLEX DATEJUST 36MM STEEL (16264) - 2.00CTW CUSTOM BEZEL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-datejust-36mm-steel-16264-2-00ctw-custom-bezel) | 1 in 1,000 | $13.2K | 5.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Rolex Oyster Perpetual 41 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-oyster-perpetual-41) | 1 in 1,000 | $11.6K | 4.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Rolex Datejust 36 16014 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-datejust-36-16014) | 1 in 500 | $7,900 | 6.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [BAPE Type 9 BAPEX Watch Silver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-type-9-bapex-watch-silver) | 1 in 50 | $1,350 | 11.1% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.09× | | [BAPE Type 2 Bapex #1 Watch Silver/Black/Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-type-2-bapex-1-watch-silver-black-green) | 1 in 100 | $1,300 | 5.3% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× | | [Longines La Grande Classique L4.766.4.51.6 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/longines-la-grande-classique-l4-766-4-51-6) | 1 in 200 | $1,237 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Apple Watch Ultra 2 \[GPS + Cellular 49mm\] Smartwatch with Rugged Titanium Case & Blue Alpine Loop Medium other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-ultra-2-gps-cellular-49mm-smartwatch-with-rugged-titanium-case-and-blue-alpine-loop-medium) | 1 in 67 | $900 | 5.5% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.97× | | [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch Ultra 47mm, Titanium Silver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-ultra-47mm-titanium-silver) | 1 in 67 | $650 | 4.0% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× | | [Swatch Moonswatch Mission to the Moonphase other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-moonswatch-mission-to-the-moonphase) | 1 in 50 | $540 | 4.4% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.81× | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission To Moonphase Snoopy Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-moonphase-snoopy-black) | 1 in 33 | $540 | 6.7% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.69× | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission To Moonphase Snoopy SO33W700 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-moonphase-snoopy-so33w700) | 1 in 33 | $502 | 6.2% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.48× | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to Saturn SO33T100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-saturn-so33t100) | 1 in 33 | $490 | 6.0% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.48× | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to Neptune SO33N100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-neptune-so33n100) | 1 in 33 | $459 | 5.7% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.69× | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to the Sun SO33J100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-the-sun-so33j100) | 1 in 33 | $450 | 5.5% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.45× | | [Apple Watch Series 9 \[GPS 45mm\] Smartwatch, Midnight Aluminum Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-series-9-gps-45mm-smartwatch-midnight-aluminum-case) | 1 in 33 | $400 | 4.9% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.69× | | [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch 7 40mm, Cream other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-7-40mm-cream) | 1 in 33 | $345 | 4.2% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.97× | | [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) | 70.0% | $0.01 | 0.0% | 90 | 96.6 | 0.93× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Rolex Oyster Perpetual 41 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-oyster-perpetual-41) Hidden $272 $11.6K 42.45x 2026-11-04 18:51 UTC [BAPE Type 9 BAPEX Watch Silver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-type-9-bapex-watch-silver) Hidden $272 $1,350 4.96x 2026-11-06 07:54 UTC [BAPE Type 9 BAPEX Watch Silver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-type-9-bapex-watch-silver) Hidden $272 $1,350 4.96x 2026-11-06 07:48 UTC [BAPE Type 9 BAPEX Watch Silver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-type-9-bapex-watch-silver) Hidden $272 $1,350 4.96x 2026-11-04 23:26 UTC [BAPE Type 2 Bapex #1 Watch Silver/Black/Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-type-2-bapex-1-watch-silver-black-green) Hidden $272 $1,300 4.78x 2026-11-06 07:43 UTC [Apple Watch Ultra 2 \[GPS + Cellular 49mm\] Smartwatch with Rugged Titanium Case & Blue Alpine Loop Medium other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-ultra-2-gps-cellular-49mm-smartwatch-with-rugged-titanium-case-and-blue-alpine-loop-medium) Hidden $272 $900 3.31x 2026-11-07 13:11 UTC [Apple Watch Ultra 2 \[GPS + Cellular 49mm\] Smartwatch with Rugged Titanium Case & Blue Alpine Loop Medium other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-ultra-2-gps-cellular-49mm-smartwatch-with-rugged-titanium-case-and-blue-alpine-loop-medium) Hidden $272 $900 3.31x 2026-11-04 23:26 UTC [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch Ultra 47mm, Titanium Silver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-ultra-47mm-titanium-silver) Hidden $272 $650 2.39x 2026-11-04 18:47 UTC [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission To Moonphase Snoopy Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-moonphase-snoopy-black) Hidden $272 $540 1.98x 2026-11-10 08:31 UTC [Swatch Moonswatch Mission to the Moonphase other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-moonswatch-mission-to-the-moonphase) Hidden $272 $540 1.98x 2026-11-07 13:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=ten-past-ten) [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to the Sun SO33J100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-the-sun-so33j100) Hidden $272 $450 1.65x 2026-11-10 08:31 UTC [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission To Moonphase Snoopy Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-moonphase-snoopy-black) Hidden $272 $540 1.98x 2026-11-10 08:31 UTC [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to Neptune SO33N100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-neptune-so33n100) Hidden $272 $459 1.69x 2026-11-10 08:31 UTC [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch 7 40mm, Cream other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-7-40mm-cream) Hidden $272 $345 1.27x 2026-11-10 08:31 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $272 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:31 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $272 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:31 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $272 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-07 13:11 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $272 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-07 13:11 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $272 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-07 13:11 UTC [Apple Watch Ultra 2 \[GPS + Cellular 49mm\] Smartwatch with Rugged Titanium Case & Blue Alpine Loop Medium other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-ultra-2-gps-cellular-49mm-smartwatch-with-rugged-titanium-case-and-blue-alpine-loop-medium) Hidden $272 $900 3.31x 2026-11-07 13:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $272 | 89.50% | 29 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $11.6K (42.45x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt