--- title: "Tesla case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Tesla ($891.56) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 21 items with odds, observed 21.71% over 30 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tesla rendered: 2026-11-11T18:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Tesla](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tesla) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Tesla A box on Cases.gg (Tesla), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tesla?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tesla?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tesla) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tesla?window=all) Price · $891.56 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $797.94 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 21.71% · 30 openings, odds method Variance · 54.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 182 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 27 openings · below min 30 days · 30 openings · below min since tracking started · 30 openings · below min -0.5% 149.0% 298.5% **Small sample.** 30 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tesla?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tesla?window=7d) | 27 | 19.13% ±278.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tesla) | 30 | 21.71% ±264.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tesla?window=all) | 30 | 21.71% ±264.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Tesla Model S Plaid other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tesla-model-s-plaid) | 1 in 1,000 | $101K | 12.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Tesla Model S other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tesla-model-s) | 1 in 667 | $85.6K | 16.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Tesla Cybertruck All-wheel drive other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tesla-cybertruck-all-wheel-drive) | 1 in 667 | $76.4K | 14.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Tesla Cybertruck Rear-wheel drive other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tesla-cybertruck-rear-wheel-drive) | 1 in 667 | $57.4K | 10.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Tesla Model 3 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tesla-model-3) | 1 in 667 | $56.1K | 10.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Tesla Model Y other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tesla-model-y) | 1 in 667 | $54.5K | 10.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [beyerdynamic T1 High-end Tesla Headphones (3rd Generation) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/beyerdynamic-t1-high-end-tesla-headphones-3rd-generation) | 1 in 20 | $855 | 5.4% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [Tesla Wall Connector - Electric Vehicle (EV) Charger other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tesla-wall-connector-electric-vehicle-ev-charger) | 1 in 20 | $540 | 3.4% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× | | [Cybertruck Tailgate Ramp other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cybertruck-tailgate-ramp) | 1 in 20 | $480 | 3.0% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× | | [Tesla Model S Car Cover other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tesla-model-s-car-cover) | 1 in 20 | $480 | 3.0% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [Cybertruck 20" SNOW CHAINS other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cybertruck-20-snow-chains) | 1 in 20 | $414 | 2.6% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [Tesla Mobile Connector other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tesla-mobile-connector) | 1 in 20 | $365 | 2.3% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [Model S Key Fob other](https://gambatracker.com/items/model-s-key-fob) | 1 in 20 | $215 | 1.3% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× | | [Cybertruck Detailing Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cybertruck-detailing-kit) | 1 in 20 | $156 | 1.0% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× | | [MODEL SX3Y TIRE PRESSURE MONITORING SYSTEM other](https://gambatracker.com/items/model-sx3y-tire-pressure-monitoring-system) | 1 in 20 | $130 | 0.8% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× | | [Cybertruck Jumpseat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cybertruck-jumpseat) | 1 in 20 | $121 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [Tesla Key Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tesla-key-card) | 1 in 20 | $50.00 | 0.3% | 6 | 1.5 | 4.00× | | [Powered by the sun license plate frame other](https://gambatracker.com/items/powered-by-the-sun-license-plate-frame) | 1 in 20 | $50.00 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× | | [Cybertruck D-Rings other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cybertruck-d-rings) | 1 in 20 | $50.00 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.32× | | [Cybertruck L-Track Bottle Opener other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cybertruck-l-track-bottle-opener) | 1 in 16 | $31.00 | 0.2% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.09× | | [Model S Key Band other](https://gambatracker.com/items/model-s-key-band) | 28.0% | $18.00 | 0.6% | 2 | 8.4 | 0.24× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [beyerdynamic T1 High-end Tesla Headphones (3rd Generation) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/beyerdynamic-t1-high-end-tesla-headphones-3rd-generation) Hidden $892 $855 0.96x 2026-11-05 14:18 UTC [Tesla Wall Connector - Electric Vehicle (EV) Charger other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tesla-wall-connector-electric-vehicle-ev-charger) [Chavlin Exer](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Chavlin%20Exer) $892 $540 0.61x 2026-11-04 14:46 UTC [Tesla Wall Connector - Electric Vehicle (EV) Charger other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tesla-wall-connector-electric-vehicle-ev-charger) Hidden $892 $540 0.61x 2026-11-04 14:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=tesla) [Cybertruck Tailgate Ramp other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cybertruck-tailgate-ramp) Hidden $892 $480 0.54x 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC [Model S Key Fob other](https://gambatracker.com/items/model-s-key-fob) Hidden $892 $215 0.24x 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC [Tesla Key Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tesla-key-card) Hidden $892 $50.00 0.06x 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC [MODEL SX3Y TIRE PRESSURE MONITORING SYSTEM other](https://gambatracker.com/items/model-sx3y-tire-pressure-monitoring-system) Hidden $892 $130 0.15x 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC [MODEL SX3Y TIRE PRESSURE MONITORING SYSTEM other](https://gambatracker.com/items/model-sx3y-tire-pressure-monitoring-system) Hidden $892 $130 0.15x 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC [Cybertruck Detailing Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cybertruck-detailing-kit) [Jaydendown](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Jaydendown) $892 $156 0.17x 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC [Powered by the sun license plate frame other](https://gambatracker.com/items/powered-by-the-sun-license-plate-frame) Hidden $892 $50.00 0.06x 2026-11-05 23:51 UTC [MODEL SX3Y TIRE PRESSURE MONITORING SYSTEM other](https://gambatracker.com/items/model-sx3y-tire-pressure-monitoring-system) Hidden $892 $130 0.15x 2026-11-05 23:51 UTC [Model S Key Band other](https://gambatracker.com/items/model-s-key-band) [Kick/Boma - Code DGN](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Kick%2FBoma%20-%20Code%20DGN) $892 $18.00 0.02x 2026-11-05 23:51 UTC [Model S Key Band other](https://gambatracker.com/items/model-s-key-band) Hidden $892 $18.00 0.02x 2026-11-05 14:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $892 | 89.50% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $855 (0.96x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt