--- title: "The Gathering Vault case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Gathering Vault ($29.02) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.48% from 17 items with odds, observed 70.22% over 2,075 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/the-gathering-vault rendered: 2026-11-11T22:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [The Gathering Vault](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/the-gathering-vault) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · The Gathering Vault A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/the-gathering-vault?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/the-gathering-vault?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/the-gathering-vault) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/the-gathering-vault?window=all) Price · $29.02 Advertised RTP · 89.48% · EV $25.97 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 70.22% · 2,075 openings, odds method Variance · 17.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 43 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 70.48% ±18.39 1,946 openings 30 days · 70.22% ±17.81 2,075 openings since tracking started · 70.22% ±17.81 2,075 openings -0.5% 120.0% 240.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.48% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (52.41% – 88.03%, 2,075 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/the-gathering-vault?window=24h) | 16 | 36.82% ±202.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/the-gathering-vault?window=7d) | 1,946 | 70.48% ±18.4 | −2.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/the-gathering-vault) | 2,075 | 70.22% ±17.8 | −2.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/the-gathering-vault?window=all) | 2,075 | 70.22% ±17.8 | −2.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,075 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Fourth Edition: Starter Deck Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fourth-edition-starter-deck-box) | 1 in 200 | $1,474 | 28.4% | 3 | 10.4 | 0.29× | | [Alara Block All-Foil Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/alara-block-all-foil-booster-box) | 1 in 125 | $517 | 15.9% | 18 | 16.6 | 1.08× | | [Deckmasters: Box Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/deckmasters-box-set) | 1 in 100 | $352 | 13.6% | 17 | 20.8 | 0.82× | | [MagicCon Amsterdam 2024: "Dark Ritual" Foil Playmat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/magiccon-amsterdam-2024-dark-ritual-foil-playmat) | 1 in 50 | $155 | 11.9% | 38 | 41.5 | 0.92× | | [Unstable Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/unstable-booster-box) | 1 in 40 | $95.00 | 9.1% | 59 | 51.9 | 1.14× | | [Secret Lair Drop Series: Full Sleeves: The Tattoo Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/secret-lair-drop-series-full-sleeves-the-tattoo-pack) | 1 in 33 | $40.00 | 4.6% | 70 | 62.3 | 1.12× | | [50 Hareruya Sleeves (Gold) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/50-hareruya-sleeves-gold) | 1 in 33 | $35.00 | 4.0% | 53 | 62.3 | 0.85× | | [Zombie Token (Black 2/2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/zombie-token-black-2-2) | 1 in 33 | $32.50 | 3.8% | 63 | 62.3 | 1.01× | | [Bloomburrow: "Mabel, Heir to Cragflame" Holofoil Playmat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloomburrow-mabel-heir-to-cragflame-holofoil-playmat) | 1 in 33 | $30.00 | 3.5% | 56 | 62.3 | 0.90× | | [Zendikar Rising Collector Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/zendikar-rising-collector-booster) | 1 in 25 | $16.00 | 2.5% | 80 | 83.0 | 0.96× | | [Jace, the Perfected Mind other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jace-the-perfected-mind) | 1 in 20 | $5.00 | 1.0% | 97 | 103.8 | 0.93× | | [Unstable Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/unstable-booster) | 1 in 20 | $2.80 | 0.5% | 103 | 103.8 | 0.99× | | [Avenger of Zendikar other](https://gambatracker.com/items/avenger-of-zendikar) | 1 in 13 | $1.70 | 0.5% | 144 | 155.6 | 0.93× | | [Darksteel Ingot other](https://gambatracker.com/items/darksteel-ingot) | 10.0% | $0.75 | 0.3% | 220 | 207.5 | 1.06× | | [Sol Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sol-ring) | 12.5% | $0.50 | 0.2% | 280 | 259.4 | 1.08× | | [Liliana, Death's Majesty other](https://gambatracker.com/items/liliana-deaths-majesty) | 15.0% | $0.28 | 0.2% | 292 | 311.3 | 0.94× | | [Mind Stone other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mind-stone) | 22.2% | $0.02 | 0.0% | 482 | 460.7 | 1.05× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Fourth Edition: Starter Deck Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fourth-edition-starter-deck-box) Hidden $29.02 $1,474 50.79x 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC [Fourth Edition: Starter Deck Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fourth-edition-starter-deck-box) Hidden $29.02 $1,474 50.79x 2026-11-06 05:19 UTC [Fourth Edition: Starter Deck Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fourth-edition-starter-deck-box) Hidden $29.02 $1,474 50.79x 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC [Alara Block All-Foil Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/alara-block-all-foil-booster-box) Hidden $29.02 $517 17.82x 2026-11-09 23:42 UTC [Alara Block All-Foil Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/alara-block-all-foil-booster-box) Hidden $29.02 $517 17.82x 2026-11-07 17:39 UTC [Alara Block All-Foil Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/alara-block-all-foil-booster-box) Hidden $29.02 $517 17.82x 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC [Alara Block All-Foil Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/alara-block-all-foil-booster-box) Hidden $29.02 $517 17.82x 2026-11-07 11:01 UTC [Alara Block All-Foil Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/alara-block-all-foil-booster-box) Hidden $29.02 $517 17.82x 2026-11-07 10:46 UTC [Alara Block All-Foil Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/alara-block-all-foil-booster-box) Hidden $29.02 $517 17.82x 2026-11-07 04:24 UTC [Alara Block All-Foil Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/alara-block-all-foil-booster-box) Hidden $29.02 $517 17.82x 2026-11-07 04:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=the-gathering-vault) [Zombie Token (Black 2/2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/zombie-token-black-2-2) Hidden $29.02 $32.50 1.12x 2026-11-11 21:35 UTC [Darksteel Ingot other](https://gambatracker.com/items/darksteel-ingot) Hidden $29.02 $0.75 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:35 UTC [Jace, the Perfected Mind other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jace-the-perfected-mind) Hidden $29.02 $5.00 0.17x 2026-11-11 21:35 UTC [Mind Stone other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mind-stone) Hidden $29.02 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:35 UTC [Mind Stone other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mind-stone) Hidden $29.02 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:35 UTC [Unstable Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/unstable-booster-box) [bananchik](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/bananchik) $29.02 $95.00 3.27x 2026-11-11 21:35 UTC [Mind Stone other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mind-stone) Hidden $29.02 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:22 UTC [Sol Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sol-ring) Hidden $29.02 $0.50 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:22 UTC [Liliana, Death's Majesty other](https://gambatracker.com/items/liliana-deaths-majesty) Hidden $29.02 $0.28 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:22 UTC [Mind Stone other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mind-stone) Hidden $29.02 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.02 | 89.48% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $1,474 (50.79x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.48 on average: an expected loss of $10.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt