---
title: "The Vault case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "The Vault ($614.35) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 53.50% over 30 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/the-vault
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:12Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [The Vault](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/the-vault)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · The Vault

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/the-vault?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/the-vault?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/the-vault) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/the-vault?window=all)

Price · $614.35

Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $549.84 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 53.50% · 30 openings, odds method

Variance · 8.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 35 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 30 openings · below min

30 days · 30 openings · below min

since tracking started · 30 openings · below min

-0.5% 134.5% 269.5%

**Small sample.** 30 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/the-vault?window=24h) | 6 | 33.93% ±234.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/the-vault?window=7d) | 30 | 53.50% ±105.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/the-vault) | 30 | 53.50% ±105.0 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/the-vault?window=all) | 30 | 53.50% ±105.0 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [LEON MARTENS BRACELET 1111019513 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/leon-martens-bracelet-1111019513) | 1 in 1,000 | $23.7K | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sixteen Stone Ring in Platinum with Diamonds other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sixteen-stone-ring-in-platinum-with-diamonds) | 1 in 667 | $17.4K | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Rolex Milgauss other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-milgauss) | 1 in 500 | $16K | 5.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [PREMIÈRE CHARMS COUTURE Watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/premiere-charms-couture-watch) | 1 in 400 | $12.5K | 5.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [ROLEX DATEJUST 36MM STEEL (16234) - 1.00CTW DIAMOND BEZEL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-datejust-36mm-steel-16234-1-00ctw-diamond-bezel) | 1 in 400 | $11.6K | 5.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Omega Seamaster Planet Ocean other](https://gambatracker.com/items/omega-seamaster-planet-ocean) | 1 in 200 | $8,700 | 7.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sapphire and Diamond Pendant other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sapphire-and-diamond-pendant) | 1 in 154 | $7,200 | 8.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Cartier Tank Solo other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-tank-solo) | 1 in 133 | $5,885 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Olive Leaf Bypass Ring in Yellow Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/olive-leaf-bypass-ring-in-yellow-gold) | 1 in 100 | $2,400 | 4.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Cartier Juste Un Clou Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-juste-un-clou-ring) | 1 in 61 | $1,903 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [CROSS DANGLING HOOP DIAMOND EARRINGS 14K SOLID GOLD 0.40CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cross-dangling-hoop-diamond-earrings-14k-solid-gold-0-40ctw) | 1 in 33 | $1,800 | 9.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [10 oz Silver Bar - Secondary Market other](https://gambatracker.com/items/10-oz-silver-bar-secondary-market) | 1 in 20 | $1,200 | 10.9% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [5 oz Silver Bar - APMEX other](https://gambatracker.com/items/5-oz-silver-bar-apmex) | 1 in 13 | $550 | 7.5% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.78× |
| [Supreme Chain License Plate Frame Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-chain-license-plate-frame-gold) | 10.0% | $375 | 6.8% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× |
| [G-Shock Casio Vintage A168WG-9VT Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/g-shock-casio-vintage-a168wg-9vt-gold) | 14.0% | $87.00 | 2.2% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
| [1 oz Silver Round - Buffalo other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-oz-silver-round-buffalo) | 15.0% | $39.00 | 1.1% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.11× |
| [Silver Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-ring) | 20.0% | $26.80 | 1.0% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.17× |
| [Single Watch Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/single-watch-case) | 20.0% | $9.99 | 0.4% | 3 | 6.0 | 0.50× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Olive Leaf Bypass Ring in Yellow Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/olive-leaf-bypass-ring-in-yellow-gold) Hidden $614 $2,400 3.91x 2026-11-07 13:05 UTC

[CROSS DANGLING HOOP DIAMOND EARRINGS 14K SOLID GOLD 0.40CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cross-dangling-hoop-diamond-earrings-14k-solid-gold-0-40ctw) Hidden $614 $1,800 2.93x 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC

[10 oz Silver Bar - Secondary Market other](https://gambatracker.com/items/10-oz-silver-bar-secondary-market) Hidden $614 $1,200 1.95x 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC

[5 oz Silver Bar - APMEX other](https://gambatracker.com/items/5-oz-silver-bar-apmex) Hidden $614 $550 0.90x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[5 oz Silver Bar - APMEX other](https://gambatracker.com/items/5-oz-silver-bar-apmex) Hidden $614 $550 0.90x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[5 oz Silver Bar - APMEX other](https://gambatracker.com/items/5-oz-silver-bar-apmex) [Rr1CSI](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Rr1CSI) $614 $550 0.90x 2026-11-07 13:05 UTC

[5 oz Silver Bar - APMEX other](https://gambatracker.com/items/5-oz-silver-bar-apmex) Hidden $614 $550 0.90x 2026-11-07 13:05 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=the-vault)

[5 oz Silver Bar - APMEX other](https://gambatracker.com/items/5-oz-silver-bar-apmex) Hidden $614 $550 0.90x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[G-Shock Casio Vintage A168WG-9VT Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/g-shock-casio-vintage-a168wg-9vt-gold) Hidden $614 $87.00 0.14x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[Silver Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-ring) Hidden $614 $26.80 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[5 oz Silver Bar - APMEX other](https://gambatracker.com/items/5-oz-silver-bar-apmex) Hidden $614 $550 0.90x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[Single Watch Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/single-watch-case) Hidden $614 $9.99 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[Silver Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-ring) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $614 $26.80 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[CROSS DANGLING HOOP DIAMOND EARRINGS 14K SOLID GOLD 0.40CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cross-dangling-hoop-diamond-earrings-14k-solid-gold-0-40ctw) Hidden $614 $1,800 2.93x 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC

[10 oz Silver Bar - Secondary Market other](https://gambatracker.com/items/10-oz-silver-bar-secondary-market) Hidden $614 $1,200 1.95x 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC

[Silver Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-ring) Hidden $614 $26.80 0.04x 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC

[Single Watch Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/single-watch-case) Hidden $614 $9.99 0.02x 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $614 | 89.50% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $2,400 (3.91x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt