--- title: "Thief case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Thief ($43.71) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 16 items with odds, observed 116.17% over 476 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/thief rendered: 2026-11-11T15:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Thief](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/thief) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Thief A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/thief?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/thief?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/thief) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/thief?window=all) Price · $43.71 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $39.12 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 116.17% · 476 openings, odds method Variance · 17.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 44 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 126.03% ±45.18 320 openings 30 days · 116.17% ±37.04 476 openings since tracking started · 116.17% ±37.04 476 openings -0.5% 109.5% 219.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/thief?window=24h) | 18 | 28.15% ±190.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/thief?window=7d) | 320 | 126.03% ±45.2 | +1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/thief) | 476 | 116.17% ±37.0 | +1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/thief?window=all) | 476 | 116.17% ±37.0 | +1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 476 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Gucci Off The Grid x 100 Thieves Backpack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gucci-off-the-grid-x-100-thieves-backpack) | 1 in 500 | $2,891 | 14.8% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [100 Thieves Golden Bear 5 Year Varsity Jacket (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-golden-bear-5-year-varsity-jacket-us-m) | 1 in 333 | $1,450 | 11.1% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.10× | | [100 Thieves x Higround Summit 65 Onyx Keyboard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-x-higround-summit-65-onyx-keyboard) | 1 in 200 | $840 | 10.7% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.84× | | [100 Thieves x Higround Summit 65 Cartograph Keyboard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-x-higround-summit-65-cartograph-keyboard) | 1 in 200 | $640 | 8.2% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.26× | | [100 Thieves Numbers Bomber Jacket (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-numbers-bomber-jacket-us-l) | 1 in 133 | $510 | 9.8% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.12× | | [100 Thieves x Pokémon Pikachu Core Hoodie (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-x-pokemon-pikachu-core-hoodie-us-l) | 1 in 133 | $360 | 6.9% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× | | [100 Thieves Enter Infinity Hoodie Lemonade (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-enter-infinity-hoodie-lemonade-us-l) | 1 in 100 | $315 | 8.1% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.63× | | [100 Thieves x Pokémon Pikachu Core T-shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-x-pokemon-pikachu-core-t-shirt) | 1 in 100 | $280 | 7.2% | 9 | 4.8 | 1.89× | | [100 Thieves x Jujutsu Kaisen Sukuna Center T-Shirt (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-x-jujutsu-kaisen-sukuna-center-t-shirt-us-xl) | 1 in 100 | $210 | 5.4% | 2 | 4.8 | 0.42× | | [100 Thieves Tri-color Zip Windbreaker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-tri-color-zip-windbreaker) | 1 in 100 | $96.00 | 2.5% | 7 | 4.8 | 1.47× | | [100 Thieves Foundations SS'24 Nylon Shirt - Stonewash Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-foundations-ss24-nylon-shirt-stonewash-green) | 1 in 100 | $89.00 | 2.3% | 9 | 4.8 | 1.89× | | [100 Thieves Foundations SS'24 Mesh Short - Graphite other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-foundations-ss24-mesh-short-graphite) | 1 in 100 | $58.00 | 1.5% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.84× | | [100 Thieves Foundations FW'23 SS Pocket T-Shirt - Forest other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-foundations-fw23-ss-pocket-t-shirt-forest) | 1 in 100 | $38.00 | 1.0% | 7 | 4.8 | 1.47× | | [100 Thieves Foundations SS'24 Trucker Hat - Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-foundations-ss24-trucker-hat-gold) | 1 in 20 | $30.00 | 3.8% | 19 | 23.8 | 0.80× | | [100 Thieves Foundations Embroidered Crew Socks - Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-foundations-embroidered-crew-socks-red) | 1 in 20 | $14.00 | 1.8% | 22 | 23.8 | 0.92× | | [100 Thieves Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-sticker) | 80.0% | $2.50 | 5.1% | 378 | 380.8 | 0.99× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Gucci Off The Grid x 100 Thieves Backpack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gucci-off-the-grid-x-100-thieves-backpack) Hidden $43.71 $2,891 66.14x 2026-11-06 02:30 UTC [Gucci Off The Grid x 100 Thieves Backpack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gucci-off-the-grid-x-100-thieves-backpack) Hidden $43.71 $2,891 66.14x 2026-11-03 20:34 UTC [100 Thieves Golden Bear 5 Year Varsity Jacket (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-golden-bear-5-year-varsity-jacket-us-m) Hidden $43.71 $1,450 33.17x 2026-11-10 06:17 UTC [100 Thieves Golden Bear 5 Year Varsity Jacket (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-golden-bear-5-year-varsity-jacket-us-m) Hidden $43.71 $1,450 33.17x 2026-11-07 18:41 UTC [100 Thieves Golden Bear 5 Year Varsity Jacket (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-golden-bear-5-year-varsity-jacket-us-m) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $43.71 $1,450 33.17x 2026-11-06 16:53 UTC [100 Thieves x Higround Summit 65 Onyx Keyboard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-x-higround-summit-65-onyx-keyboard) Hidden $43.71 $840 19.22x 2026-11-06 16:53 UTC [100 Thieves x Higround Summit 65 Onyx Keyboard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-x-higround-summit-65-onyx-keyboard) [Trecky](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Trecky) $43.71 $840 19.22x 2026-11-04 19:29 UTC [100 Thieves x Higround Summit 65 Cartograph Keyboard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-x-higround-summit-65-cartograph-keyboard) Hidden $43.71 $640 14.64x 2026-11-06 07:13 UTC [100 Thieves x Higround Summit 65 Cartograph Keyboard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-x-higround-summit-65-cartograph-keyboard) Hidden $43.71 $640 14.64x 2026-11-04 23:31 UTC [100 Thieves x Higround Summit 65 Cartograph Keyboard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-x-higround-summit-65-cartograph-keyboard) Hidden $43.71 $640 14.64x 2026-11-03 11:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=thief) [100 Thieves Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-sticker) Hidden $43.71 $2.50 0.06x 2026-11-10 21:25 UTC [100 Thieves Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-sticker) Hidden $43.71 $2.50 0.06x 2026-11-10 21:25 UTC [100 Thieves Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-sticker) Hidden $43.71 $2.50 0.06x 2026-11-10 21:25 UTC [100 Thieves Tri-color Zip Windbreaker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-tri-color-zip-windbreaker) Hidden $43.71 $96.00 2.20x 2026-11-10 21:25 UTC [100 Thieves Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-sticker) Hidden $43.71 $2.50 0.06x 2026-11-10 21:25 UTC [100 Thieves Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-sticker) [KICK/JUSTSAN666](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/KICK%2FJUSTSAN666) $43.71 $2.50 0.06x 2026-11-10 21:25 UTC [100 Thieves Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-sticker) Hidden $43.71 $2.50 0.06x 2026-11-10 21:25 UTC [100 Thieves Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-sticker) Hidden $43.71 $2.50 0.06x 2026-11-10 21:25 UTC [100 Thieves Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-sticker) Hidden $43.71 $2.50 0.06x 2026-11-10 21:25 UTC [100 Thieves Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-sticker) Hidden $43.71 $2.50 0.06x 2026-11-10 21:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $43.71 | 89.49% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $2,891 (66.14x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt