--- title: "Thirsty case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Thirsty ($128.89) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 90.49% over 22 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/thirsty rendered: 2026-11-13T06:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Thirsty](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/thirsty) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Thirsty A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/thirsty?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/thirsty?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/thirsty) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/thirsty?window=all) Price · $128.89 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $115.35 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.49% · 22 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 27.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 22 openings · below min 30 days · 22 openings · below min since tracking started · 22 openings · below min 50.5% 90.5% 130.5% **Small sample.** 22 openings and 5.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/thirsty?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/thirsty?window=7d) | 22 | 90.49% ±39.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/thirsty) | 22 | 90.49% ±39.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/thirsty?window=all) | 22 | 90.49% ±39.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Stanley x Barbie Legends Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler (Set of 8) Multicolor other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-x-barbie-legends-flowstate-quencher-40oz-tumbler-set-of-8-multicolor) | 1 in 100 | $883 | 7.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Stanley x Starbucks Phillippines Exclusive Quencher 40oz Tumbler Blue (2023) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-x-starbucks-phillippines-exclusive-quencher-40oz-tumbler-blue-2023) | 1 in 50 | $600 | 10.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Stanley x Target x Wicked Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Elphaba other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-x-target-x-wicked-flowstate-quencher-40oz-tumbler-elphaba) | 1 in 33 | $391 | 10.2% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [Stanley x LoveShackFancy Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Pink Mink other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-x-loveshackfancy-flowstate-quencher-40oz-tumbler-pink-mink) | 1 in 33 | $160 | 4.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Stanley x LoveShackFancy Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler EverbloomingRosettes other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-x-loveshackfancy-flowstate-quencher-40oz-tumbler-everbloomingrosettes) | 1 in 33 | $140 | 3.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Stanley The Halloween Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Web Glow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-the-halloween-flowstate-quencher-40oz-tumbler-web-glow) | 1 in 20 | $140 | 6.1% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.82× | | [Stanley x TYLA TYGER Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Bronze other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-x-tyla-tyger-flowstate-quencher-40oz-tumbler-bronze) | 1 in 20 | $130 | 5.6% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.82× | | [Stanley x Target Exclusive Valentines Day Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Ruby Hearts other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-x-target-exclusive-valentines-day-flowstate-quencher-40oz-tumbler-ruby-hearts) | 1 in 20 | $122 | 5.3% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× | | [Stanley x Leo Messi The GOAT Collection Classic Mate 8oz Mug Messi GOAT Pink other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-x-leo-messi-the-goat-collection-classic-mate-8oz-mug-messi-goat-pink) | 1 in 20 | $120 | 5.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Stanley Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Midnight Glitz other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-flowstate-quencher-40oz-tumbler-midnight-glitz) | 1 in 20 | $102 | 4.4% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.82× | | [Stanley x Barbie Legends Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler 90s Rockers other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-x-barbie-legends-flowstate-quencher-40oz-tumbler-90s-rockers) | 1 in 20 | $100 | 4.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Stanley x Barbie Legends Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Barbie Icon other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-x-barbie-legends-flowstate-quencher-40oz-tumbler-barbie-icon) | 1 in 20 | $100 | 4.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Stanley The Black Chroma Collection Flowstate Quencher 30oz Tumbler Black Chroma other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-the-black-chroma-collection-flowstate-quencher-30oz-tumbler-black-chroma) | 1 in 20 | $93.15 | 4.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Stanley x Leo Messi The GOAT Collection Iceflow 24oz Bottle With Flip Straw Lid Messi GOAT Pink other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-x-leo-messi-the-goat-collection-iceflow-24oz-bottle-with-flip-straw-lid-messi-goat-pink) | 1 in 13 | $76.00 | 4.9% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [Stanley The Neon Collection Adventure Stacking Beer 16oz Pint Neon Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-the-neon-collection-adventure-stacking-beer-16oz-pint-neon-green) | 1 in 13 | $73.00 | 4.7% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.61× | | [Stanley Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Arctic Twist other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-flowstate-quencher-40oz-tumbler-arctic-twist) | 1 in 13 | $60.00 | 3.9% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.42× | | [Stanley The Lunar New Year Limited Edition Flowstate Quencher 30oz Tumbler Red Dragon other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-the-lunar-new-year-limited-edition-flowstate-quencher-30oz-tumbler-red-dragon) | 12.5% | $52.00 | 5.6% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.45× | | [Stanley Water Bottle Keychain Christmas Tree Ornament Strawberry Red Shimmer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-water-bottle-keychain-christmas-tree-ornament-strawberry-red-shimmer) | 13.0% | $48.00 | 5.4% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.70× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 13 Nov, 02:20 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=thirsty) [Stanley Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Arctic Twist other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-flowstate-quencher-40oz-tumbler-arctic-twist) Hidden $129 $60.00 0.47x 2026-11-08 00:37 UTC [Stanley The Lunar New Year Limited Edition Flowstate Quencher 30oz Tumbler Red Dragon other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-the-lunar-new-year-limited-edition-flowstate-quencher-30oz-tumbler-red-dragon) Hidden $129 $52.00 0.40x 2026-11-08 00:37 UTC [Stanley x LoveShackFancy Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler EverbloomingRosettes other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-x-loveshackfancy-flowstate-quencher-40oz-tumbler-everbloomingrosettes) Hidden $129 $140 1.09x 2026-11-08 00:37 UTC [Stanley x Target x Wicked Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Elphaba other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-x-target-x-wicked-flowstate-quencher-40oz-tumbler-elphaba) Hidden $129 $391 3.04x 2026-11-08 00:37 UTC [Stanley The Lunar New Year Limited Edition Flowstate Quencher 30oz Tumbler Red Dragon other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-the-lunar-new-year-limited-edition-flowstate-quencher-30oz-tumbler-red-dragon) Hidden $129 $52.00 0.40x 2026-11-08 00:37 UTC [Stanley The Halloween Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Web Glow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-the-halloween-flowstate-quencher-40oz-tumbler-web-glow) [USE CODE CARLZUMO](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/USE%20CODE%20CARLZUMO) $129 $140 1.09x 2026-11-08 00:37 UTC [Stanley Water Bottle Keychain Christmas Tree Ornament Strawberry Red Shimmer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-water-bottle-keychain-christmas-tree-ornament-strawberry-red-shimmer) Hidden $129 $48.00 0.37x 2026-11-07 22:35 UTC [Stanley x LoveShackFancy Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Pink Mink other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-x-loveshackfancy-flowstate-quencher-40oz-tumbler-pink-mink) Hidden $129 $160 1.24x 2026-11-07 22:35 UTC [Stanley The Halloween Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Web Glow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-the-halloween-flowstate-quencher-40oz-tumbler-web-glow) Hidden $129 $140 1.09x 2026-11-07 22:35 UTC [Stanley x Target x Wicked Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Elphaba other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-x-target-x-wicked-flowstate-quencher-40oz-tumbler-elphaba) [Code:666 800$ LB FREE](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Code%3A666%20800%24%20LB%20FREE) $129 $391 3.04x 2026-11-07 22:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $129 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt