--- title: "Tissot vs Rolex case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Tissot vs Rolex ($849.19) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 23.23% over 30 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tissot-vs-rolex rendered: 2026-11-12T00:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Tissot vs Rolex](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tissot-vs-rolex) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Tissot vs Rolex A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tissot-vs-rolex?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tissot-vs-rolex?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tissot-vs-rolex) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tissot-vs-rolex?window=all) Price · $849.19 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $760.02 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 23.23% · 30 openings, odds method Variance · 10.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 36 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 24 openings · below min 30 days · 30 openings · below min since tracking started · 30 openings · below min -0.5% 143.3% 287.0% **Small sample.** 30 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tissot-vs-rolex?window=24h) | 6 | 22.90% ±263.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tissot-vs-rolex?window=7d) | 24 | 24.63% ±131.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tissot-vs-rolex) | 30 | 23.23% ±117.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tissot-vs-rolex?window=all) | 30 | 23.23% ±117.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Rolex Datejust 36 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-datejust-36) | 1 in 250 | $22.9K | 12.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Rolex GMT-Master II Batman other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-gmt-master-ii-batman) | 1 in 200 | $21K | 13.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Rolex Submariner Date other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-submariner-date) | 1 in 200 | $17K | 11.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [ROLEX DATEJUST 36MM 18K YELLOW GOLD & STEEL (16233) - 1.00CTW DIAMOND BEZEL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-datejust-36mm-18k-yellow-gold-and-steel-16233-1-00ctw-diamond-bezel) | 1 in 143 | $11.8K | 10.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Rolex Oyster Perpetual 41 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-oyster-perpetual-41) | 1 in 143 | $11.6K | 10.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Rolex Datejust 36 16014 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-datejust-36-16014) | 1 in 100 | $7,900 | 10.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Tissot Mens PRX Powermatic 80 316L Stainless Steel case Automatic Watches, Grey, Stainless Steel, 12 (T1374071135100) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tissot-mens-prx-powermatic-80-316l-stainless-steel-case-automatic-watches-grey-stainless-steel-12-t1374071135100) | 1 in 33 | $800 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [Tissot SEASTAR GTS QTZ CHR SS RD IND other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tissot-seastar-gts-qtz-chr-ss-rd-ind) | 1 in 25 | $715 | 3.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [Tissot Supersport Chrono other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tissot-supersport-chrono) | 1 in 20 | $600 | 3.9% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [Tissot Supersport Chrono Basketball Edition other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tissot-supersport-chrono-basketball-edition) | 1 in 20 | $570 | 3.7% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× | | [Tissot Seastar 1000 40mm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tissot-seastar-1000-40mm) | 1 in 20 | $540 | 3.6% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [Tissot Men's PRX 316L Stainless Steel Case Dress Watch Grey T1374101104100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tissot-mens-prx-316l-stainless-steel-case-dress-watch-grey-t1374101104100) | 1 in 17 | $480 | 3.8% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | | [Rolex Datejust Oyster link other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-datejust-oyster-link) | 1 in 20 | $420 | 2.8% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [Rolex Brown Travel Pouch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-brown-travel-pouch) | 1 in 13 | $335 | 3.3% | 6 | 2.3 | 2.67× | | [Authentic Rolex Dealer display Green Gloves (Size M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/authentic-rolex-dealer-display-green-gloves-size-m) | 10.0% | $94.00 | 1.2% | 6 | 3.0 | 2.00× | | [Tissot PRX Watch Strap T852047701 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tissot-prx-watch-strap-t852047701) | 10.7% | $60.00 | 0.8% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.93× | | [Watch Repair Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-repair-kit) | 15.0% | $21.00 | 0.4% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.89× | | [Watch Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-box) | 20.0% | $18.99 | 0.5% | 6 | 6.0 | 1.00× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Tissot SEASTAR GTS QTZ CHR SS RD IND other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tissot-seastar-gts-qtz-chr-ss-rd-ind) Hidden $849 $715 0.84x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [Tissot Supersport Chrono Basketball Edition other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tissot-supersport-chrono-basketball-edition) [Jaydendown](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Jaydendown) $849 $570 0.67x 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC [Tissot Supersport Chrono Basketball Edition other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tissot-supersport-chrono-basketball-edition) Hidden $849 $570 0.67x 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC [Tissot Supersport Chrono Basketball Edition other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tissot-supersport-chrono-basketball-edition) Hidden $849 $570 0.67x 2026-11-05 14:20 UTC [Tissot Seastar 1000 40mm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tissot-seastar-1000-40mm) Hidden $849 $540 0.64x 2026-11-05 14:26 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=tissot-vs-rolex) [Tissot PRX Watch Strap T852047701 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tissot-prx-watch-strap-t852047701) Hidden $849 $60.00 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [Watch Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-box) Hidden $849 $18.99 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [Tissot SEASTAR GTS QTZ CHR SS RD IND other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tissot-seastar-gts-qtz-chr-ss-rd-ind) Hidden $849 $715 0.84x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [Watch Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-box) Hidden $849 $18.99 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [Rolex Brown Travel Pouch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-brown-travel-pouch) Hidden $849 $335 0.39x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [Watch Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-box) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $849 $18.99 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [Watch Repair Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-repair-kit) Hidden $849 $21.00 0.02x 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC [Watch Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-box) Hidden $849 $18.99 0.02x 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC [Tissot Supersport Chrono Basketball Edition other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tissot-supersport-chrono-basketball-edition) Hidden $849 $570 0.67x 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC [Watch Repair Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-repair-kit) Hidden $849 $21.00 0.02x 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $849 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $715 (0.84x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt