--- title: "Tokyo Nights case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Tokyo Nights ($88.27) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 68.52% over 492 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tokyo-nights rendered: 2026-11-11T21:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Tokyo Nights](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tokyo-nights) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Tokyo Nights A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tokyo-nights?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tokyo-nights?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tokyo-nights) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tokyo-nights?window=all) Price · $88.27 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $78.99 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 68.52% · 492 openings, odds method Variance · 33.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 306 openings · below min 30 days · 492 openings · below min since tracking started · 492 openings · below min -0.5% 241.0% 482.5% **Small sample.** 492 openings and 4.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tokyo-nights?window=24h) | 6 | 18.13% ±463.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tokyo-nights?window=7d) | 306 | 77.80% ±65.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tokyo-nights) | 492 | 68.52% ±51.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/tokyo-nights?window=all) | 492 | 68.52% ±51.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 492 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Yu-Gi-Oh! TCG Masterpiece Series Platinum Blue-Eyes White Dragon US Version (Edition of 1000) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/yu-gi-oh-tcg-masterpiece-series-platinum-blue-eyes-white-dragon-us-version-edition-of-1000) | 1 in 400 | $8,160 | 25.8% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [Daniel Arsham x Pokemon Crystalized Pikachu Future Relic (Edition of 500) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/daniel-arsham-x-pokemon-crystalized-pikachu-future-relic-edition-of-500) | 1 in 400 | $4,800 | 15.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× | | [Charizard GX 2017 Pokemon TCG, Burning Shadows Full Art #150/147, PSA 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-gx-2017-pokemon-tcg-burning-shadows-full-art-150-147-psa-9) | 1 in 200 | $2,500 | 15.8% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.22× | | [Higround x Attack on Titan Levi Keyboard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/higround-x-attack-on-titan-levi-keyboard) | 1 in 200 | $700 | 4.4% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× | | [Bandai Figuarts Zero Jujutsu Kaisen Sukuna Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bandai-figuarts-zero-jujutsu-kaisen-sukuna-figure) | 1 in 100 | $650 | 8.2% | 8 | 4.9 | 1.63× | | [Yu-Gi-Oh! OCG Duel Monsters 25th Anniversary Ultimate Kaiba Set (Japanese) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/yu-gi-oh-ocg-duel-monsters-25th-anniversary-ultimate-kaiba-set-japanese) | 1 in 200 | $480 | 3.0% | 6 | 2.5 | 2.44× | | [Higround x Jujutsu Kaisen Yuji + Megumi Mousepad other](https://gambatracker.com/items/higround-x-jujutsu-kaisen-yuji-megumi-mousepad) | 1 in 200 | $400 | 2.5% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.41× | | [Nintendo Switch Lite Pokemon Dialga & Palkia Edition (US Plug) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nintendo-switch-lite-pokemon-dialga-and-palkia-edition-us-plug) | 1 in 200 | $400 | 2.5% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× | | [Yu-Gi-Oh 25th Anniversary Duel Disk other](https://gambatracker.com/items/yu-gi-oh-25th-anniversary-duel-disk) | 1 in 100 | $390 | 4.9% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× | | [Levis x Pokémon Unisex Crewneck Sweatshirt (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/levis-x-pokemon-unisex-crewneck-sweatshirt-us-l) | 1 in 50 | $240 | 6.1% | 5 | 9.8 | 0.51× | | [Nintendo Switch/Lite Super Mario 3D All-Stars Video Game other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nintendo-switch-lite-super-mario-3d-all-stars-video-game) | 1 in 100 | $179 | 2.3% | 7 | 4.9 | 1.42× | | [Funko Pop! Animation Demon Slayer Muichiro Tokito 2022 Funkon Exclusive Figure #1193 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-animation-demon-slayer-muichiro-tokito-2022-funkon-exclusive-figure-1193) | 1 in 33 | $93.00 | 3.5% | 17 | 14.8 | 1.15× | | [Youtooz Naruto Ramen 3.9" Inch Vinyl Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/youtooz-naruto-ramen-3-9-inch-vinyl-figure) | 1 in 25 | $34.00 | 1.7% | 15 | 19.7 | 0.76× | | [Attack on Titan Season 2 Distressed Scout Symbol T-shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/attack-on-titan-season-2-distressed-scout-symbol-t-shirt) | 1 in 20 | $24.00 | 1.5% | 26 | 24.6 | 1.06× | | [Funko Pop! Animation: Chainsaw Man - Chainsaw Man with Chase other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-animation-chainsaw-man-chainsaw-man-with-chase) | 10.0% | $15.00 | 1.9% | 43 | 49.2 | 0.87× | | [Pokemon Cards other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-cards) | 10.0% | $3.00 | 0.4% | 53 | 49.2 | 1.08× | | [Hunter X Hunter Gon Freecss Metal Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hunter-x-hunter-gon-freecss-metal-keychain) | 10.0% | $0.48 | 0.1% | 46 | 49.2 | 0.93× | | [Quote Rengoku - Demon Slayer Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/quote-rengoku-demon-slayer-sticker) | 50.0% | $0.01 | 0.0% | 255 | 246.0 | 1.04× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Daniel Arsham x Pokemon Crystalized Pikachu Future Relic (Edition of 500) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/daniel-arsham-x-pokemon-crystalized-pikachu-future-relic-edition-of-500) Hidden $88.27 $4,800 54.38x 2026-11-06 07:21 UTC [Charizard GX 2017 Pokemon TCG, Burning Shadows Full Art #150/147, PSA 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-gx-2017-pokemon-tcg-burning-shadows-full-art-150-147-psa-9) Hidden $88.27 $2,500 28.32x 2026-11-10 14:27 UTC [Charizard GX 2017 Pokemon TCG, Burning Shadows Full Art #150/147, PSA 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-gx-2017-pokemon-tcg-burning-shadows-full-art-150-147-psa-9) Hidden $88.27 $2,500 28.32x 2026-11-07 01:22 UTC [Charizard GX 2017 Pokemon TCG, Burning Shadows Full Art #150/147, PSA 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-gx-2017-pokemon-tcg-burning-shadows-full-art-150-147-psa-9) Hidden $88.27 $2,500 28.32x 2026-11-03 16:53 UTC [Higround x Attack on Titan Levi Keyboard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/higround-x-attack-on-titan-levi-keyboard) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $88.27 $700 7.93x 2026-11-06 08:18 UTC [Higround x Attack on Titan Levi Keyboard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/higround-x-attack-on-titan-levi-keyboard) Hidden $88.27 $700 7.93x 2026-11-05 15:09 UTC [Bandai Figuarts Zero Jujutsu Kaisen Sukuna Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bandai-figuarts-zero-jujutsu-kaisen-sukuna-figure) Hidden $88.27 $650 7.36x 2026-11-10 19:02 UTC [Bandai Figuarts Zero Jujutsu Kaisen Sukuna Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bandai-figuarts-zero-jujutsu-kaisen-sukuna-figure) Hidden $88.27 $650 7.36x 2026-11-10 09:49 UTC [Bandai Figuarts Zero Jujutsu Kaisen Sukuna Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bandai-figuarts-zero-jujutsu-kaisen-sukuna-figure) Hidden $88.27 $650 7.36x 2026-11-09 04:12 UTC [Bandai Figuarts Zero Jujutsu Kaisen Sukuna Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bandai-figuarts-zero-jujutsu-kaisen-sukuna-figure) [JoshuaCR](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/JoshuaCR) $88.27 $650 7.36x 2026-11-09 03:43 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=tokyo-nights) [Quote Rengoku - Demon Slayer Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/quote-rengoku-demon-slayer-sticker) Hidden $88.27 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [Quote Rengoku - Demon Slayer Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/quote-rengoku-demon-slayer-sticker) Hidden $88.27 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [Pokemon Cards other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-cards) Hidden $88.27 $3.00 0.03x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [Quote Rengoku - Demon Slayer Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/quote-rengoku-demon-slayer-sticker) Hidden $88.27 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [Quote Rengoku - Demon Slayer Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/quote-rengoku-demon-slayer-sticker) Hidden $88.27 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [Funko Pop! Animation Demon Slayer Muichiro Tokito 2022 Funkon Exclusive Figure #1193 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-animation-demon-slayer-muichiro-tokito-2022-funkon-exclusive-figure-1193) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $88.27 $93.00 1.05x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [Quote Rengoku - Demon Slayer Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/quote-rengoku-demon-slayer-sticker) Hidden $88.27 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:02 UTC [Hunter X Hunter Gon Freecss Metal Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hunter-x-hunter-gon-freecss-metal-keychain) Hidden $88.27 $0.48 0.01x 2026-11-10 19:02 UTC [Quote Rengoku - Demon Slayer Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/quote-rengoku-demon-slayer-sticker) Hidden $88.27 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:02 UTC [Quote Rengoku - Demon Slayer Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/quote-rengoku-demon-slayer-sticker) Hidden $88.27 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $88.27 | 89.49% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $4,800 (54.38x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt