--- title: "Touchdown case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Touchdown ($51.62) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 90.48% over 190 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/touchdown rendered: 2026-11-12T00:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Touchdown](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/touchdown) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Touchdown A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/touchdown?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/touchdown?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/touchdown) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/touchdown?window=all) Price · $51.62 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $46.19 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.48% · 190 openings, odds method Variance · 3.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 10 openings · below min 7 days · 81.54% ±28.69 166 openings 30 days · 90.48% ±26.81 190 openings since tracking started · 90.48% ±26.81 190 openings -0.5% 77.5% 155.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/touchdown?window=24h) | 10 | 37.78% ±116.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/touchdown?window=7d) | 166 | 81.54% ±28.7 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/touchdown) | 190 | 90.48% ±26.8 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/touchdown?window=all) | 190 | 90.48% ±26.8 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 190 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Detroit Lions #1 Riddell 2024 On-Field Alternate Speed Flex Authentic Helmet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/detroit-lions-1-riddell-2024-on-field-alternate-speed-flex-authentic-helmet) | 1 in 200 | $820 | 8.9% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [Caleb Williams Chicago Bears Autographed Fanatics Authentic Navy Nike Game Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/caleb-williams-chicago-bears-autographed-fanatics-authentic-navy-nike-game-jersey) | 1 in 133 | $660 | 10.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× | | [Marshawn Lynch Seattle Seahawks Autographed Fanatics Authentic Navy Nike Limited Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/marshawn-lynch-seattle-seahawks-autographed-fanatics-authentic-navy-nike-limited-jersey) | 1 in 133 | $600 | 9.7% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.11× | | [Xbox One S 500GB Console - Madden NFL 18 Bundle \[Discontinued\] (Renewed) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/xbox-one-s-500gb-console-madden-nfl-18-bundle-discontinued-renewed) | 1 in 80 | $220 | 6.0% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.84× | | [Fanatics Authentic Wilson "The Duke" Official NFL Leather Game Football other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fanatics-authentic-wilson-the-duke-official-nfl-leather-game-football) | 1 in 67 | $210 | 6.8% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× | | [Madden NFL 25 - PlayStation 5 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/madden-nfl-25-playstation-5) | 1 in 33 | $77.00 | 5.0% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.70× | | [Men's Tennessee Titans Nike Olive 2022 Salute to Service Tonal Lightweight Long Sleeve Hooded T-Shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mens-tennessee-titans-nike-olive-2022-salute-to-service-tonal-lightweight-long-sleeve-hooded-t-shirt) | 1 in 33 | $75.00 | 4.9% | 9 | 5.7 | 1.58× | | [Jason Kelce Philadelphia Eagles Fanatics Authentic Framed 15" x 17" NFL Retirement Collage other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jason-kelce-philadelphia-eagles-fanatics-authentic-framed-15-x-17-nfl-retirement-collage) | 1 in 25 | $50.00 | 4.3% | 7 | 7.6 | 0.92× | | [Minnesota Vikings Riddell 2023 Salute To Service Speed Mini Helmet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/minnesota-vikings-riddell-2023-salute-to-service-speed-mini-helmet) | 1 in 22 | $45.00 | 4.4% | 13 | 8.5 | 1.52× | | [Skinit Decal Gaming Skin Compatible with PS5 Console and Controller - Officially Licensed NFL Philadelphia Eagles Retro Logo Design other](https://gambatracker.com/items/skinit-decal-gaming-skin-compatible-with-ps5-console-and-controller-officially-licensed-nfl-philadelphia-eagles-retro-logo-design) | 1 in 20 | $44.00 | 4.8% | 7 | 9.5 | 0.74× | | [Men's San Francisco 49ers New Era White 2024 Salute To Service Digital Camo 39THIRTY Flex Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mens-san-francisco-49ers-new-era-white-2024-salute-to-service-digital-camo-39thirty-flex-hat) | 1 in 20 | $39.00 | 4.2% | 6 | 9.5 | 0.63× | | [Jayden Daniels Washington Commanders Fanatics Authentic 10.5" x 13" Jersey Number Sublimated Player Plaque other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jayden-daniels-washington-commanders-fanatics-authentic-10-5-x-13-jersey-number-sublimated-player-plaque) | 1 in 15 | $30.00 | 4.2% | 12 | 12.3 | 0.97× | | [Malik Nabers New York Giants Fanatics Authentic 10.5" x 13" Jersey Number Sublimated Player Plaque other](https://gambatracker.com/items/malik-nabers-new-york-giants-fanatics-authentic-10-5-x-13-jersey-number-sublimated-player-plaque) | 1 in 15 | $30.00 | 4.2% | 15 | 12.3 | 1.21× | | [Dallas Cowboys Fisher-Price Little People Fanatics Exclusive Collector™ NFL Series 2 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dallas-cowboys-fisher-price-little-people-fanatics-exclusive-collector-nfl-series-2) | 1 in 13 | $25.00 | 4.3% | 12 | 15.2 | 0.79× | | [Brock Purdy San Francisco 49ers Series 5 GameChanger 6" Vinyl Figurine other](https://gambatracker.com/items/brock-purdy-san-francisco-49ers-series-5-gamechanger-6-vinyl-figurine) | 10.8% | $21.00 | 4.9% | 19 | 20.4 | 0.93× | | [Buffalo Bills Santa Funko Pop! 2024 Fanatics Exclusive Vinyl Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/buffalo-bills-santa-funko-pop-2024-fanatics-exclusive-vinyl-figure) | 13.0% | $15.00 | 4.2% | 24 | 24.7 | 0.97× | | [Amon-Ra St. Brown Detroit Lions #254 Funko Pop! Vinyl Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amon-ra-st-brown-detroit-lions-254-funko-pop-vinyl-figure) | 13.0% | $15.00 | 4.2% | 23 | 24.7 | 0.93× | | [Minnesota Vikings Justin Jefferson #239 Funko Pop! Vinyl Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/minnesota-vikings-justin-jefferson-239-funko-pop-vinyl-figure) | 13.0% | $15.00 | 4.2% | 32 | 24.7 | 1.30× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Detroit Lions #1 Riddell 2024 On-Field Alternate Speed Flex Authentic Helmet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/detroit-lions-1-riddell-2024-on-field-alternate-speed-flex-authentic-helmet) Hidden $51.62 $820 15.89x 2026-11-05 15:28 UTC [Caleb Williams Chicago Bears Autographed Fanatics Authentic Navy Nike Game Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/caleb-williams-chicago-bears-autographed-fanatics-authentic-navy-nike-game-jersey) Hidden $51.62 $660 12.79x 2026-11-03 00:40 UTC [Marshawn Lynch Seattle Seahawks Autographed Fanatics Authentic Navy Nike Limited Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/marshawn-lynch-seattle-seahawks-autographed-fanatics-authentic-navy-nike-limited-jersey) Hidden $51.62 $600 11.62x 2026-11-06 00:30 UTC [Marshawn Lynch Seattle Seahawks Autographed Fanatics Authentic Navy Nike Limited Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/marshawn-lynch-seattle-seahawks-autographed-fanatics-authentic-navy-nike-limited-jersey) Hidden $51.62 $600 11.62x 2026-11-05 20:01 UTC [Marshawn Lynch Seattle Seahawks Autographed Fanatics Authentic Navy Nike Limited Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/marshawn-lynch-seattle-seahawks-autographed-fanatics-authentic-navy-nike-limited-jersey) [Mackay](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Mackay) $51.62 $600 11.62x 2026-11-03 15:32 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=touchdown) [Brock Purdy San Francisco 49ers Series 5 GameChanger 6" Vinyl Figurine other](https://gambatracker.com/items/brock-purdy-san-francisco-49ers-series-5-gamechanger-6-vinyl-figurine) Hidden $51.62 $21.00 0.41x 2026-11-11 09:05 UTC [Malik Nabers New York Giants Fanatics Authentic 10.5" x 13" Jersey Number Sublimated Player Plaque other](https://gambatracker.com/items/malik-nabers-new-york-giants-fanatics-authentic-10-5-x-13-jersey-number-sublimated-player-plaque) Hidden $51.62 $30.00 0.58x 2026-11-11 09:05 UTC [Buffalo Bills Santa Funko Pop! 2024 Fanatics Exclusive Vinyl Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/buffalo-bills-santa-funko-pop-2024-fanatics-exclusive-vinyl-figure) Hidden $51.62 $15.00 0.29x 2026-11-11 09:05 UTC [Buffalo Bills Santa Funko Pop! 2024 Fanatics Exclusive Vinyl Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/buffalo-bills-santa-funko-pop-2024-fanatics-exclusive-vinyl-figure) Hidden $51.62 $15.00 0.29x 2026-11-11 09:05 UTC [Minnesota Vikings Justin Jefferson #239 Funko Pop! Vinyl Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/minnesota-vikings-justin-jefferson-239-funko-pop-vinyl-figure) Hidden $51.62 $15.00 0.29x 2026-11-11 09:05 UTC [Amon-Ra St. Brown Detroit Lions #254 Funko Pop! Vinyl Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amon-ra-st-brown-detroit-lions-254-funko-pop-vinyl-figure) [ditmemajak](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/ditmemajak) $51.62 $15.00 0.29x 2026-11-11 09:05 UTC [Amon-Ra St. Brown Detroit Lions #254 Funko Pop! Vinyl Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amon-ra-st-brown-detroit-lions-254-funko-pop-vinyl-figure) Hidden $51.62 $15.00 0.29x 2026-11-11 01:46 UTC [Minnesota Vikings Justin Jefferson #239 Funko Pop! Vinyl Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/minnesota-vikings-justin-jefferson-239-funko-pop-vinyl-figure) Hidden $51.62 $15.00 0.29x 2026-11-11 01:46 UTC [Minnesota Vikings Justin Jefferson #239 Funko Pop! Vinyl Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/minnesota-vikings-justin-jefferson-239-funko-pop-vinyl-figure) Hidden $51.62 $15.00 0.29x 2026-11-11 01:46 UTC [Men's San Francisco 49ers New Era White 2024 Salute To Service Digital Camo 39THIRTY Flex Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mens-san-francisco-49ers-new-era-white-2024-salute-to-service-digital-camo-39thirty-flex-hat) [nsfoutlaw](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/nsfoutlaw) $51.62 $39.00 0.76x 2026-11-11 01:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $51.62 | 89.49% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $820 (15.89x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt