--- title: "Track Star case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Track Star ($237.52) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 47.73% over 21 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/track-star rendered: 2026-11-11T17:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Track Star](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/track-star) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Track Star A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/track-star?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/track-star?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/track-star) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/track-star?window=all) Price · $237.52 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $212.58 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 47.73% · 21 openings, odds method Variance · 12.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 18 openings · below min 30 days · 21 openings · below min since tracking started · 21 openings · below min -0.5% 103.3% 207.0% **Small sample.** 21 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/track-star?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/track-star?window=7d) | 18 | 40.91% ±165.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/track-star) | 21 | 47.73% ±153.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/track-star?window=all) | 21 | 47.73% ±153.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [adidas Human Race NMD Pharrell x Chanel (US Men's 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-human-race-nmd-pharrell-x-chanel-us-mens-11) | 1 in 500 | $16.8K | 15.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [adidas Human Race NMD Pharrell x BBC Cotton Candy (US Men's 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-human-race-nmd-pharrell-x-bbc-cotton-candy-us-mens-8) | 1 in 333 | $3,168 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [adidas NMD R1 Bape Olive Camo (US Men's 12) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-bape-olive-camo-us-mens-12) | 1 in 200 | $2,540 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [adidas NMD HU Pharrell Human Race Yellow (US Men's 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-hu-pharrell-human-race-yellow-us-mens-11) | 1 in 333 | $2,500 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [adidas NMD XR1 size? Henry Poole (US Men's 11.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-xr1-size-henry-poole-us-mens-11-5) | 1 in 200 | $1,941 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [adidas Human Race NMD Pharrell x BBC Cotton Candy (US Men's 10.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-human-race-nmd-pharrell-x-bbc-cotton-candy-us-mens-10-5) | 1 in 100 | $1,650 | 7.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [adidas NMD HU Pharrell Human Race Scarlet (US Men's 8.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-hu-pharrell-human-race-scarlet-us-mens-8-5) | 1 in 500 | $1,490 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [adidas NMD Hu Pharrell Inspiration Pack Green (US Men's 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-hu-pharrell-inspiration-pack-green-us-mens-11) | 1 in 100 | $1,490 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [adidas NMD XR1 Mastermind (US Men's 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-xr1-mastermind-us-mens-8) | 1 in 100 | $1,075 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [adidas NMD R1 Tri Color Stripes Black (US Men's 6) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-tri-color-stripes-black-us-mens-6) | 1 in 50 | $862 | 8.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [adidas NMD R1 V2 Pulse Aqua (US Men's 11.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-v2-pulse-aqua-us-mens-11-5) | 1 in 33 | $660 | 9.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [adidas NMD R2 Black White (US Men's 12) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r2-black-white-us-mens-12) | 1 in 20 | $388 | 9.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.95× | | [adidas NMD R1 Core Black Energy Pink (US Men's 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-core-black-energy-pink-us-mens-8) | 1 in 20 | $194 | 4.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [adidas NMD R1 Trail Guardians of the Galaxy Groot (US Men's 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-trail-guardians-of-the-galaxy-groot-us-mens-8) | 1 in 20 | $165 | 3.9% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.95× | | [adidas NMD R1 Core Black Energy Pink (US Men's 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-core-black-energy-pink-us-mens-11) | 10.0% | $89.00 | 4.2% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× | | [adidas NMD R2 Black White (US Men's 4.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r2-black-white-us-mens-4-5) | 10.0% | $79.00 | 3.7% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× | | [3 Pair Flat Shoe laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3-pair-flat-shoe-laces) | 25.0% | $7.00 | 0.8% | 7 | 5.3 | 1.33× | | [Flat Sneaker Shoe Laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/flat-sneaker-shoe-laces) | 30.0% | $4.99 | 0.7% | 10 | 6.3 | 1.59× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [adidas Human Race NMD Pharrell x BBC Cotton Candy (US Men's 10.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-human-race-nmd-pharrell-x-bbc-cotton-candy-us-mens-10-5) Hidden $238 $1,650 6.95x 2026-11-05 06:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=track-star) [Flat Sneaker Shoe Laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/flat-sneaker-shoe-laces) Hidden $238 $4.99 0.02x 2026-11-10 07:08 UTC [Flat Sneaker Shoe Laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/flat-sneaker-shoe-laces) Hidden $238 $4.99 0.02x 2026-11-10 07:08 UTC [Flat Sneaker Shoe Laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/flat-sneaker-shoe-laces) Hidden $238 $4.99 0.02x 2026-11-10 07:08 UTC [3 Pair Flat Shoe laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3-pair-flat-shoe-laces) Hidden $238 $7.00 0.03x 2026-11-10 07:08 UTC [3 Pair Flat Shoe laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3-pair-flat-shoe-laces) Hidden $238 $7.00 0.03x 2026-11-10 07:08 UTC [Flat Sneaker Shoe Laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/flat-sneaker-shoe-laces) [Nie](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Nie) $238 $4.99 0.02x 2026-11-10 07:08 UTC [Flat Sneaker Shoe Laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/flat-sneaker-shoe-laces) Hidden $238 $4.99 0.02x 2026-11-05 06:21 UTC [Flat Sneaker Shoe Laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/flat-sneaker-shoe-laces) Hidden $238 $4.99 0.02x 2026-11-05 06:21 UTC [3 Pair Flat Shoe laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3-pair-flat-shoe-laces) Hidden $238 $7.00 0.03x 2026-11-05 06:21 UTC [3 Pair Flat Shoe laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3-pair-flat-shoe-laces) Hidden $238 $7.00 0.03x 2026-11-05 06:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $238 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $1,650 (6.95x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt