--- title: "Trendsetter case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Trendsetter ($56.11) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 78.73% over 383 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/trendsetter rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Trendsetter](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/trendsetter) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Trendsetter A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/trendsetter?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/trendsetter?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/trendsetter) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/trendsetter?window=all) Price · $56.11 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $50.21 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.73% · 383 openings, odds method Variance · 12.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 41 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 24 openings · below min 7 days · 81.53% ±39.49 319 openings 30 days · 78.73% ±36.04 383 openings since tracking started · 78.73% ±36.04 383 openings -0.5% 116.0% 232.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/trendsetter?window=24h) | 24 | 87.99% ±144.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/trendsetter?window=7d) | 319 | 81.53% ±39.5 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/trendsetter) | 383 | 78.73% ±36.0 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/trendsetter?window=all) | 383 | 78.73% ±36.0 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 383 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Denim Tears x Marc Jacobs Leather Tote Bag Medium Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/denim-tears-x-marc-jacobs-leather-tote-bag-medium-black) | 1 in 182 | $1,880 | 20.6% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× | | [Jordan 1 Retro High '85 Wings Phantom US M 10 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-85-wings-phantom-us-m-10) | 1 in 286 | $1,740 | 12.1% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.49× | | [Stussy Work Contrast Stitch Jacket Black US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stussy-work-contrast-stitch-jacket-black-us-l) | 1 in 133 | $655 | 9.8% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× | | [Palace Pro Team 02 Shell Jacket US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palace-pro-team-02-shell-jacket-us-l) | 1 in 125 | $600 | 9.6% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.33× | | [Palace Pro Team 02 Shell Jacket US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palace-pro-team-02-shell-jacket-us-m) | 1 in 133 | $528 | 7.9% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.04× | | [Palace Chenille Tri-Ferg Crew Grey Marl US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palace-chenille-tri-ferg-crew-grey-marl-us-l) | 1 in 111 | $500 | 9.0% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low Jason Voorhees US M 10 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-jason-voorhees-us-m-10) | 1 in 95 | $383 | 8.0% | 4 | 4.0 | 0.99× | | [Palace Yeti Beanie Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palace-yeti-beanie-black) | 1 in 67 | $199 | 5.9% | 9 | 5.7 | 1.57× | | [Crocs Classic ClogPokémon Jigglypuff US W other](https://gambatracker.com/items/crocs-classic-clogpokemon-jigglypuff-us-w) | 1 in 67 | $140 | 4.2% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.70× | | [Supreme Hanes Bones Thermal Pant Black US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-hanes-bones-thermal-pant-black-us-m) | 1 in 57 | $71.00 | 2.5% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.90× | | [Supreme Hanes Bones Thermal Crew Black US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-hanes-bones-thermal-crew-black-us-m) | 1 in 57 | $65.00 | 2.3% | 8 | 6.7 | 1.19× | | [Nike Kobe Bryant Broken Not Beaten T-shirt Black US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-kobe-bryant-broken-not-beaten-t-shirt-black-us-l) | 1 in 57 | $64.00 | 2.2% | 10 | 6.7 | 1.49× | | [Stussy Knit Sport Bucket Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stussy-knit-sport-bucket-hat) | 1 in 50 | $60.00 | 2.4% | 10 | 7.7 | 1.31× | | [Supreme Hanes Bones Thermal Crew Woodland Camo US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-hanes-bones-thermal-crew-woodland-camo-us-m) | 1 in 40 | $55.00 | 2.7% | 5 | 9.6 | 0.52× | | [Nike Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sticker) | 12.5% | $1.99 | 0.5% | 43 | 47.8 | 0.90× | | [Supreme Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-sticker) | 15.0% | $0.50 | 0.1% | 50 | 57.4 | 0.87× | | [BAPE Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-sticker) | 25.0% | $0.28 | 0.1% | 96 | 95.8 | 1.00× | | [Kith Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-sticker) | 29.6% | $0.10 | 0.1% | 128 | 113.4 | 1.13× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Denim Tears x Marc Jacobs Leather Tote Bag Medium Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/denim-tears-x-marc-jacobs-leather-tote-bag-medium-black) Hidden $56.11 $1,880 33.51x 2026-11-05 23:07 UTC [Denim Tears x Marc Jacobs Leather Tote Bag Medium Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/denim-tears-x-marc-jacobs-leather-tote-bag-medium-black) [✪ DubbleuJB](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/%E2%9C%AA%20DubbleuJB) $56.11 $1,880 33.51x 2026-11-05 22:08 UTC [Jordan 1 Retro High '85 Wings Phantom US M 10 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-85-wings-phantom-us-m-10) Hidden $56.11 $1,740 31.01x 2026-11-05 23:07 UTC [Jordan 1 Retro High '85 Wings Phantom US M 10 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-85-wings-phantom-us-m-10) [Mackay](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Mackay) $56.11 $1,740 31.01x 2026-11-03 15:31 UTC [Palace Pro Team 02 Shell Jacket US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palace-pro-team-02-shell-jacket-us-l) Hidden $56.11 $600 10.69x 2026-11-05 22:18 UTC [Palace Pro Team 02 Shell Jacket US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palace-pro-team-02-shell-jacket-us-m) Hidden $56.11 $528 9.41x 2026-11-11 08:31 UTC [Palace Pro Team 02 Shell Jacket US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palace-pro-team-02-shell-jacket-us-m) Hidden $56.11 $528 9.41x 2026-11-08 18:38 UTC [Palace Pro Team 02 Shell Jacket US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palace-pro-team-02-shell-jacket-us-m) Hidden $56.11 $528 9.41x 2026-11-05 22:08 UTC [Palace Chenille Tri-Ferg Crew Grey Marl US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palace-chenille-tri-ferg-crew-grey-marl-us-l) Hidden $56.11 $500 8.91x 2026-11-05 22:17 UTC [Palace Chenille Tri-Ferg Crew Grey Marl US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palace-chenille-tri-ferg-crew-grey-marl-us-l) [Doxxed](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Doxxed) $56.11 $500 8.91x 2026-11-04 21:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=trendsetter) [Supreme Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-sticker) Hidden $56.11 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:49 UTC [Supreme Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-sticker) Hidden $56.11 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:49 UTC [Kith Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-sticker) Hidden $56.11 $0.10 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:49 UTC [BAPE Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-sticker) Hidden $56.11 $0.28 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:49 UTC [Kith Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-sticker) Hidden $56.11 $0.10 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:49 UTC [Nike Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sticker) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $56.11 $1.99 0.04x 2026-11-11 08:49 UTC [Supreme Hanes Bones Thermal Crew Black US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-hanes-bones-thermal-crew-black-us-m) Hidden $56.11 $65.00 1.16x 2026-11-11 08:31 UTC [BAPE Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-sticker) Hidden $56.11 $0.28 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:31 UTC [Palace Pro Team 02 Shell Jacket US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palace-pro-team-02-shell-jacket-us-m) Hidden $56.11 $528 9.41x 2026-11-11 08:31 UTC [Palace Yeti Beanie Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palace-yeti-beanie-black) Hidden $56.11 $199 3.55x 2026-11-11 08:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $56.11 | 89.49% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $1,880 (33.51x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt