--- title: "Trick or Treat case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Trick or Treat ($6.66) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.41% from 17 items with odds, observed 87.76% over 1,036 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/trick-or-treat rendered: 2026-11-12T03:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Trick or Treat](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/trick-or-treat) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Trick or Treat A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/trick-or-treat?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/trick-or-treat?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/trick-or-treat) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/trick-or-treat?window=all) Price · $6.66 Advertised RTP · 89.41% · EV $5.95 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.76% · 1,036 openings, odds method Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 76 openings · below min 7 days · 91.29% ±11.29 859 openings 30 days · 87.76% ±10.28 1,036 openings since tracking started · 87.76% ±10.28 1,036 openings 48.5% 87.0% 125.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/trick-or-treat?window=24h) | 76 | 87.05% ±37.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/trick-or-treat?window=7d) | 859 | 91.29% ±11.3 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/trick-or-treat) | 1,036 | 87.76% ±10.3 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/trick-or-treat?window=all) | 1,036 | 87.76% ±10.3 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,036 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Spooktacular Creations Skeleton Bone Bodysuit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spooktacular-creations-skeleton-bone-bodysuit) | 1 in 80 | $75.00 | 15.7% | 8 | 13.0 | 0.62× | | [5.4Ft Halloween Life Size Skeleton Decoration other](https://gambatracker.com/items/5-4ft-halloween-life-size-skeleton-decoration) | 1 in 67 | $56.00 | 14.1% | 20 | 15.5 | 1.29× | | [1OAK Halloween Scented Candle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1oak-halloween-scented-candle) | 1 in 33 | $20.00 | 10.1% | 30 | 31.1 | 0.97× | | [Halloween Pumpkin String Lights other](https://gambatracker.com/items/halloween-pumpkin-string-lights) | 1 in 31 | $16.00 | 8.7% | 28 | 33.7 | 0.83× | | [Spooktacular Creations Halloween Fake Blood other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spooktacular-creations-halloween-fake-blood) | 1 in 31 | $15.00 | 8.2% | 37 | 33.7 | 1.10× | | [Glow in the Dark Full Finger Skeleton Gloves other](https://gambatracker.com/items/glow-in-the-dark-full-finger-skeleton-gloves) | 1 in 29 | $12.00 | 7.1% | 30 | 36.3 | 0.83× | | [Super Strechy Fake Spider Cobweb Decoration other](https://gambatracker.com/items/super-strechy-fake-spider-cobweb-decoration) | 1 in 29 | $10.00 | 5.9% | 39 | 36.3 | 1.08× | | [Gothic Skull Skeleton Charm Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gothic-skull-skeleton-charm-keychain) | 1 in 25 | $8.00 | 5.4% | 40 | 41.4 | 0.97× | | [Genuine Fred DOOMED Crystal Skull Shotglass other](https://gambatracker.com/items/genuine-fred-doomed-crystal-skull-shotglass) | 1 in 25 | $6.50 | 4.4% | 48 | 41.4 | 1.16× | | [Giant Plastic Spider other](https://gambatracker.com/items/giant-plastic-spider) | 1 in 22 | $5.00 | 3.8% | 46 | 46.6 | 0.99× | | [Pumpkin Stress Ball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pumpkin-stress-ball) | 1 in 22 | $5.00 | 3.8% | 49 | 46.6 | 1.05× | | [52 Pcs Neon Halloween Stickers for Kids Glow in The Dark other](https://gambatracker.com/items/52-pcs-neon-halloween-stickers-for-kids-glow-in-the-dark) | 1 in 20 | $4.00 | 3.4% | 60 | 51.8 | 1.16× | | [Skull Mason Jar with Lid other](https://gambatracker.com/items/skull-mason-jar-with-lid) | 1 in 20 | $3.20 | 2.7% | 67 | 51.8 | 1.29× | | [Mini Pumpkin Trick or Treat Bucket other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mini-pumpkin-trick-or-treat-bucket) | 1 in 13 | $2.00 | 2.5% | 85 | 77.7 | 1.09× | | [Glow in The Dark Vampire Teeth other](https://gambatracker.com/items/glow-in-the-dark-vampire-teeth) | 10.0% | $1.00 | 1.7% | 94 | 103.6 | 0.91× | | [Creepy Eyeball Stress Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/creepy-eyeball-stress-toy) | 12.5% | $0.80 | 1.7% | 124 | 129.5 | 0.96× | | [Halloween Temporary Tattoos other](https://gambatracker.com/items/halloween-temporary-tattoos) | 23.8% | $0.25 | 1.0% | 231 | 246.0 | 0.94× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=trick-or-treat) [Glow in The Dark Vampire Teeth other](https://gambatracker.com/items/glow-in-the-dark-vampire-teeth) Hidden $6.66 $1.00 0.15x 2026-11-11 20:34 UTC [Gothic Skull Skeleton Charm Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gothic-skull-skeleton-charm-keychain) Hidden $6.66 $8.00 1.20x 2026-11-11 20:34 UTC [Halloween Temporary Tattoos other](https://gambatracker.com/items/halloween-temporary-tattoos) Hidden $6.66 $0.25 0.04x 2026-11-11 20:34 UTC [Skull Mason Jar with Lid other](https://gambatracker.com/items/skull-mason-jar-with-lid) [Mel](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Mel) $6.66 $3.20 0.48x 2026-11-11 20:34 UTC [Halloween Temporary Tattoos other](https://gambatracker.com/items/halloween-temporary-tattoos) Hidden $6.66 $0.25 0.04x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [Halloween Temporary Tattoos other](https://gambatracker.com/items/halloween-temporary-tattoos) Hidden $6.66 $0.25 0.04x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [Halloween Temporary Tattoos other](https://gambatracker.com/items/halloween-temporary-tattoos) Hidden $6.66 $0.25 0.04x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [Creepy Eyeball Stress Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/creepy-eyeball-stress-toy) Hidden $6.66 $0.80 0.12x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [Halloween Temporary Tattoos other](https://gambatracker.com/items/halloween-temporary-tattoos) Hidden $6.66 $0.25 0.04x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [Pumpkin Stress Ball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pumpkin-stress-ball) [Majestic Unicorn](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Majestic%20Unicorn) $6.66 $5.00 0.75x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.66 | 89.41% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.41 on average: an expected loss of $10.59 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt