---
title: "UFC case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "UFC ($81.64) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 81.31% over 140 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ufc
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [UFC](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ufc)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · UFC

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ufc?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ufc?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ufc) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ufc?window=all)

Price · $81.64

Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $73.06 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.31% · 140 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 78.70% ±38.89 130 openings

30 days · 81.31% ±37.48 140 openings

since tracking started · 81.31% ±37.48 140 openings

-0.5% 101.3% 203.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ufc?window=24h) | 6 | 21.44% ±181.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ufc?window=7d) | 130 | 78.70% ±38.9 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ufc) | 140 | 81.31% ±37.5 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ufc?window=all) | 140 | 81.31% ±37.5 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 140 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [UFC Legacy Championship Replica Belt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ufc-legacy-championship-replica-belt) | 1 in 50 | $1,020 | 27.9% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [BAS UFC Body Action System - Fully Adjustable Punching & Kicking Pads other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bas-ufc-body-action-system-fully-adjustable-punching-and-kicking-pads) | 1 in 50 | $820 | 22.4% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [Gold UFC Official 5Eight Champion Fight Glove other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gold-ufc-official-5eight-champion-fight-glove) | 1 in 50 | $300 | 8.2% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.43× |
| [UFC Octagon Camo Heavy Bag - 70 lbs. other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ufc-octagon-camo-heavy-bag-70-lbs) | 1 in 50 | $279 | 7.6% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.79× |
| [C3 Foam Heavy Bag 100lb other](https://gambatracker.com/items/c3-foam-heavy-bag-100lb) | 1 in 50 | $160 | 4.4% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [UFC Fighting MMA LED Neon Sign Wall Art (12x12 inches) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ufc-fighting-mma-led-neon-sign-wall-art-12x12-inches) | 1 in 50 | $135 | 3.7% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [Under Armour Red/Black UFC Project Rock BSR 3 Training Shoes other](https://gambatracker.com/items/under-armour-red-black-ufc-project-rock-bsr-3-training-shoes) | 1 in 50 | $135 | 3.7% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [Venum Men's UFC Adrenaline Fight Week Pant (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/venum-mens-ufc-adrenaline-fight-week-pant-us-l) | 1 in 50 | $95.00 | 2.6% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.43× |
| [UFC MMA Sparring Gloves other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ufc-mma-sparring-gloves) | 1 in 33 | $48.00 | 2.0% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.19× |
| [Official UFC Logo Gold Line Pullover Hoodie (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/official-ufc-logo-gold-line-pullover-hoodie-us-m) | 1 in 33 | $43.00 | 1.8% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× |
| [Unisex Black Noche UFC Fight Kit Snapback Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/unisex-black-noche-ufc-fight-kit-snapback-hat) | 1 in 33 | $40.00 | 1.6% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× |
| [Venum Standard Baseball Hat Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/venum-standard-baseball-hat-black) | 1 in 20 | $36.00 | 2.5% | 9 | 7.0 | 1.29× |
| [2024 Topps Chrome UFC Value Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-topps-chrome-ufc-value-box) | 1 in 20 | $34.00 | 2.3% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.00× |
| [MMA Gloves other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mma-gloves) | 1 in 20 | $34.00 | 2.3% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.00× |
| [Official UFC Cut Up T-Shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/official-ufc-cut-up-t-shirt) | 1 in 20 | $23.00 | 1.6% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.00× |
| [Gel Boxing Hand Wraps other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gel-boxing-hand-wraps) | 1 in 20 | $18.00 | 1.2% | 6 | 7.0 | 0.86× |
| [UFC Adult Mouthguard with Case and Fitting Device other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ufc-adult-mouthguard-with-case-and-fitting-device) | 20.0% | $12.00 | 3.3% | 33 | 28.0 | 1.18× |
| [Old UFC Ticket other](https://gambatracker.com/items/old-ufc-ticket) | 30.0% | $2.00 | 0.8% | 37 | 42.0 | 0.88× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[UFC Legacy Championship Replica Belt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ufc-legacy-championship-replica-belt) Hidden $81.64 $1,020 12.49x 2026-11-09 09:57 UTC

[BAS UFC Body Action System - Fully Adjustable Punching & Kicking Pads other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bas-ufc-body-action-system-fully-adjustable-punching-and-kicking-pads) Hidden $81.64 $820 10.04x 2026-11-10 05:57 UTC

[BAS UFC Body Action System - Fully Adjustable Punching & Kicking Pads other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bas-ufc-body-action-system-fully-adjustable-punching-and-kicking-pads) [coochie](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/coochie) $81.64 $820 10.04x 2026-11-06 07:32 UTC

[BAS UFC Body Action System - Fully Adjustable Punching & Kicking Pads other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bas-ufc-body-action-system-fully-adjustable-punching-and-kicking-pads) [Brave Raccoon](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Brave%20Raccoon) $81.64 $820 10.04x 2026-11-02 22:07 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=ufc)

[UFC Adult Mouthguard with Case and Fitting Device other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ufc-adult-mouthguard-with-case-and-fitting-device) Hidden $81.64 $12.00 0.15x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[2024 Topps Chrome UFC Value Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-topps-chrome-ufc-value-box) Hidden $81.64 $34.00 0.42x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[UFC Adult Mouthguard with Case and Fitting Device other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ufc-adult-mouthguard-with-case-and-fitting-device) Hidden $81.64 $12.00 0.15x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[Official UFC Cut Up T-Shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/official-ufc-cut-up-t-shirt) Hidden $81.64 $23.00 0.28x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[UFC Adult Mouthguard with Case and Fitting Device other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ufc-adult-mouthguard-with-case-and-fitting-device) Hidden $81.64 $12.00 0.15x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[UFC Adult Mouthguard with Case and Fitting Device other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ufc-adult-mouthguard-with-case-and-fitting-device) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $81.64 $12.00 0.15x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[Gel Boxing Hand Wraps other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gel-boxing-hand-wraps) Hidden $81.64 $18.00 0.22x 2026-11-10 19:56 UTC

[MMA Gloves other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mma-gloves) Hidden $81.64 $34.00 0.42x 2026-11-10 19:56 UTC

[2024 Topps Chrome UFC Value Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-topps-chrome-ufc-value-box) Hidden $81.64 $34.00 0.42x 2026-11-10 19:56 UTC

[Old UFC Ticket other](https://gambatracker.com/items/old-ufc-ticket) [Clever Slow loris](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Clever%20Slow%20loris) $81.64 $2.00 0.02x 2026-11-10 19:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $81.64 | 89.49% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $1,020 (12.49x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt