--- title: "Ultimate Collection case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ultimate Collection ($159.57) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 17 items with odds, observed 70.01% over 187 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ultimate-collection rendered: 2026-11-11T20:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Ultimate Collection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ultimate-collection) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Ultimate Collection A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ultimate-collection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ultimate-collection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ultimate-collection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ultimate-collection?window=all) Price · $159.57 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $142.81 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 70.01% · 187 openings, odds method Variance · 14.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 58.90% ±65.05 131 openings 30 days · 70.01% ±54.45 187 openings since tracking started · 70.01% ±54.45 187 openings -0.5% 62.3% 125.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ultimate-collection?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ultimate-collection?window=7d) | 131 | 58.90% ±65.1 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ultimate-collection) | 187 | 70.01% ±54.4 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ultimate-collection?window=all) | 187 | 70.01% ±54.4 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 187 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Japan Post Stamp Box - Cramorant & Pikachu Promos other](https://gambatracker.com/items/japan-post-stamp-box-cramorant-and-pikachu-promos) | 1 in 100 | $5,500 | 38.5% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× | | [YU NAGABA × Pokémon Card Game Eeveelution Full Promo Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/yu-nagaba-pokemon-card-game-eeveelution-full-promo-set) | 1 in 33 | $1,400 | 29.4% | 4 | 5.6 | 0.71× | | [World Championships 2023 Paradise Resort Full Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/world-championships-2023-paradise-resort-full-set) | 1 in 100 | $1,000 | 7.0% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.07× | | [World Championships 2024 Paradise Resort Full Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/world-championships-2024-paradise-resort-full-set) | 1 in 100 | $750 | 5.3% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.07× | | [World Championships 2022 Champions Festival Full Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/world-championships-2022-champions-festival-full-set) | 1 in 100 | $745 | 5.2% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.60× | | [Crown Zenith: Gold Dialga, Palkia, Giratina & Arceus other](https://gambatracker.com/items/crown-zenith-gold-dialga-palkia-giratina-and-arceus) | 1 in 100 | $440 | 3.1% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.14× | | [Crown Zenith: Raikou, Entei & Suicune Alt Art other](https://gambatracker.com/items/crown-zenith-raikou-entei-and-suicune-alt-art) | 1 in 33 | $325 | 6.8% | 4 | 5.6 | 0.71× | | [10 Rainbow Rares other](https://gambatracker.com/items/10-rainbow-rares) | 1 in 20 | $63.00 | 2.2% | 5 | 9.3 | 0.53× | | [Sword & Shield Ultra-Premium Collection - Charizard Promos other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sword-and-shield-ultra-premium-collection-charizard-promos) | 1 in 20 | $40.00 | 1.4% | 9 | 9.3 | 0.96× | | [10 Ultra Rares other](https://gambatracker.com/items/10-ultra-rares) | 1 in 13 | $7.00 | 0.4% | 15 | 14.0 | 1.07× | | [10 Pokémon ex, EX, GX & V other](https://gambatracker.com/items/10-pokemon-ex-ex-gx-and-v) | 1 in 13 | $4.35 | 0.2% | 21 | 14.0 | 1.50× | | [50 Holos other](https://gambatracker.com/items/50-holos) | 1 in 13 | $3.60 | 0.2% | 13 | 14.0 | 0.93× | | [Basic Energy Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/basic-energy-box) | 1 in 13 | $2.40 | 0.1% | 16 | 14.0 | 1.14× | | [50 Rares other](https://gambatracker.com/items/50-rares) | 1 in 13 | $2.00 | 0.1% | 13 | 14.0 | 0.93× | | [100 Uncommons other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-uncommons) | 10.0% | $1.00 | 0.1% | 13 | 18.7 | 0.70× | | [45 Basic Energy Sealed Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/45-basic-energy-sealed-pack) | 15.0% | $0.02 | 0.0% | 34 | 28.1 | 1.21× | | [100 Basic Energy Cards other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-basic-energy-cards) | 16.5% | $0.02 | 0.0% | 28 | 30.9 | 0.91× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Japan Post Stamp Box - Cramorant & Pikachu Promos other](https://gambatracker.com/items/japan-post-stamp-box-cramorant-and-pikachu-promos) Hidden $160 $5,500 34.47x 2026-11-04 00:14 UTC [YU NAGABA × Pokémon Card Game Eeveelution Full Promo Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/yu-nagaba-pokemon-card-game-eeveelution-full-promo-set) Hidden $160 $1,400 8.77x 2026-11-09 23:02 UTC [YU NAGABA × Pokémon Card Game Eeveelution Full Promo Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/yu-nagaba-pokemon-card-game-eeveelution-full-promo-set) Hidden $160 $1,400 8.77x 2026-11-09 23:02 UTC [YU NAGABA × Pokémon Card Game Eeveelution Full Promo Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/yu-nagaba-pokemon-card-game-eeveelution-full-promo-set) Hidden $160 $1,400 8.77x 2026-11-06 02:34 UTC [YU NAGABA × Pokémon Card Game Eeveelution Full Promo Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/yu-nagaba-pokemon-card-game-eeveelution-full-promo-set) Hidden $160 $1,400 8.77x 2026-11-03 21:09 UTC [World Championships 2023 Paradise Resort Full Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/world-championships-2023-paradise-resort-full-set) Hidden $160 $1,000 6.27x 2026-11-06 06:36 UTC [World Championships 2023 Paradise Resort Full Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/world-championships-2023-paradise-resort-full-set) [Arrrbaccos](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Arrrbaccos) $160 $1,000 6.27x 2026-11-05 13:29 UTC [World Championships 2024 Paradise Resort Full Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/world-championships-2024-paradise-resort-full-set) Hidden $160 $750 4.70x 2026-11-10 03:42 UTC [World Championships 2024 Paradise Resort Full Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/world-championships-2024-paradise-resort-full-set) Hidden $160 $750 4.70x 2026-11-10 03:35 UTC [World Championships 2022 Champions Festival Full Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/world-championships-2022-champions-festival-full-set) Hidden $160 $745 4.67x 2026-11-09 23:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=ultimate-collection) [100 Basic Energy Cards other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-basic-energy-cards) Hidden $160 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-10 03:45 UTC [45 Basic Energy Sealed Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/45-basic-energy-sealed-pack) [Chode Muncher 🍆](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Chode%20Muncher%20%F0%9F%8D%86) $160 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-10 03:45 UTC [World Championships 2024 Paradise Resort Full Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/world-championships-2024-paradise-resort-full-set) Hidden $160 $750 4.70x 2026-11-10 03:42 UTC [Sword & Shield Ultra-Premium Collection - Charizard Promos other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sword-and-shield-ultra-premium-collection-charizard-promos) [Chode Muncher 🍆](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Chode%20Muncher%20%F0%9F%8D%86) $160 $40.00 0.25x 2026-11-10 03:42 UTC [100 Uncommons other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-uncommons) Hidden $160 $1.00 0.01x 2026-11-10 03:35 UTC [World Championships 2024 Paradise Resort Full Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/world-championships-2024-paradise-resort-full-set) Hidden $160 $750 4.70x 2026-11-10 03:35 UTC [Basic Energy Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/basic-energy-box) [Chode Muncher 🍆](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Chode%20Muncher%20%F0%9F%8D%86) $160 $2.40 0.02x 2026-11-10 03:35 UTC [100 Basic Energy Cards other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-basic-energy-cards) Hidden $160 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-10 03:33 UTC [Sword & Shield Ultra-Premium Collection - Charizard Promos other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sword-and-shield-ultra-premium-collection-charizard-promos) Hidden $160 $40.00 0.25x 2026-11-10 03:33 UTC [10 Ultra Rares other](https://gambatracker.com/items/10-ultra-rares) Hidden $160 $7.00 0.04x 2026-11-10 03:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $160 | 89.50% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $5,500 (34.47x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt