--- title: "Valentine's case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Valentine's ($8.19) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.41% from 12 items with odds, observed 74.71% over 228 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/valentines-129033 rendered: 2026-11-12T01:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Valentine's](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/valentines-129033) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Valentine's A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/valentines-129033?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/valentines-129033?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/valentines-129033) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/valentines-129033?window=all) Price · $8.19 Advertised RTP · 89.41% · EV $7.32 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 74.71% · 228 openings, odds method Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 73.90% ±19.42 190 openings 30 days · 74.71% ±17.73 228 openings since tracking started · 74.71% ±17.73 228 openings -0.5% 83.5% 167.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/valentines-129033?window=24h) | 6 | 57.79% ±109.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/valentines-129033?window=7d) | 190 | 73.90% ±19.4 | −1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/valentines-129033) | 228 | 74.71% ±17.7 | −1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/valentines-129033?window=all) | 228 | 74.71% ±17.7 | −1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 228 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Forever Rose Real 24K Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/forever-rose-real-24k-gold) | 1 in 200 | $135 | 9.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Reeces Peanut Butter Hearts Chocolate 2lb other](https://gambatracker.com/items/reeces-peanut-butter-hearts-chocolate-2lb) | 1 in 100 | $45.00 | 6.1% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× | | [Tabs Chocolate Squares for Couples other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tabs-chocolate-squares-for-couples) | 1 in 80 | $30.00 | 5.1% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.70× | | [BestSelf Intimacy Deck other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bestself-intimacy-deck) | 1 in 80 | $28.00 | 4.8% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× | | [MILLA Heart Hoop Earrings other](https://gambatracker.com/items/milla-heart-hoop-earrings) | 1 in 80 | $25.00 | 4.3% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× | | [WHAT DO YOU MEME? The Ultimate Date Night Game other](https://gambatracker.com/items/what-do-you-meme-the-ultimate-date-night-game) | 1 in 40 | $20.00 | 6.8% | 8 | 5.7 | 1.40× | | [2Pcs Valentine's Day Coffee Mugs other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2pcs-valentines-day-coffee-mugs) | 1 in 31 | $12.00 | 5.3% | 2 | 7.4 | 0.27× | | [Valentines Day Teddy Bear other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valentines-day-teddy-bear) | 1 in 20 | $10.00 | 6.8% | 9 | 11.4 | 0.79× | | [Valentine's Day Candle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valentines-day-candle) | 1 in 11 | $7.00 | 8.6% | 11 | 20.5 | 0.54× | | [Adjustable Handcuffs other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adjustable-handcuffs) | 15.0% | $6.00 | 12.3% | 38 | 34.2 | 1.11× | | [Fluffy Heart Throw Pillow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fluffy-heart-throw-pillow) | 20.0% | $5.20 | 14.2% | 45 | 45.6 | 0.99× | | [Two Souls One Heart Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-souls-one-heart-keychain) | 40.0% | $3.00 | 16.4% | 106 | 91.2 | 1.16× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=valentines-129033) [Adjustable Handcuffs other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adjustable-handcuffs) Hidden $8.19 $6.00 0.73x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC [Fluffy Heart Throw Pillow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fluffy-heart-throw-pillow) Hidden $8.19 $5.20 0.63x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC [Adjustable Handcuffs other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adjustable-handcuffs) Hidden $8.19 $6.00 0.73x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC [Fluffy Heart Throw Pillow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fluffy-heart-throw-pillow) Hidden $8.19 $5.20 0.63x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC [Two Souls One Heart Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-souls-one-heart-keychain) Hidden $8.19 $3.00 0.37x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC [Two Souls One Heart Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-souls-one-heart-keychain) [bananchik](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/bananchik) $8.19 $3.00 0.37x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC [Two Souls One Heart Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-souls-one-heart-keychain) Hidden $8.19 $3.00 0.37x 2026-11-10 15:38 UTC [MILLA Heart Hoop Earrings other](https://gambatracker.com/items/milla-heart-hoop-earrings) Hidden $8.19 $25.00 3.05x 2026-11-10 15:38 UTC [Fluffy Heart Throw Pillow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fluffy-heart-throw-pillow) Hidden $8.19 $5.20 0.63x 2026-11-10 15:38 UTC [Two Souls One Heart Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-souls-one-heart-keychain) Hidden $8.19 $3.00 0.37x 2026-11-10 15:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.19 | 89.41% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.41 on average: an expected loss of $10.59 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt