--- title: "Wildcard case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Wildcard ($373.40) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 37.41% over 78 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wildcard rendered: 2026-11-11T19:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Wildcard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wildcard) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Wildcard A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wildcard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wildcard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wildcard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wildcard?window=all) Price · $373.40 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $334.19 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 37.41% · 78 openings, odds method Variance · 8.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 42 openings · below min 30 days · 78 openings · below min since tracking started · 78 openings · below min -0.5% 161.0% 322.5% **Small sample.** 78 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wildcard?window=24h) | 6 | 86.35% ±235.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wildcard?window=7d) | 42 | 36.47% ±89.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wildcard) | 78 | 37.41% ±65.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wildcard?window=all) | 78 | 37.41% ±65.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 78 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Holo Ninetales #12 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-holo-ninetales-12-psa-10-gem-mint) | 1 in 400 | $11K | 8.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [2003 Pokemon Aquapolis Holo Umbreon #H29 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2003-pokemon-aquapolis-holo-umbreon-h29-psa-10-gem-mint) | 1 in 400 | $8,250 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Cristiano Ronaldo 2004 Upper Deck SP Authentic #7 PSA 10 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cristiano-ronaldo-2004-upper-deck-sp-authentic-7-psa-10) | 1 in 400 | $6,506 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Fates Collide Booster BoxBooster Boxes other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fates-collide-booster-boxbooster-boxes) | 1 in 50 | $5,000 | 29.9% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [Stronghold Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stronghold-booster-box) | 1 in 400 | $4,400 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Gengar (WEB 047) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gengar-web-047) | 1 in 50 | $1,870 | 11.2% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× | | [EX Delta Species Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ex-delta-species-booster) | 1 in 50 | $1,850 | 11.1% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× | | [Foreign Limited: Starter Deck other](https://gambatracker.com/items/foreign-limited-starter-deck) | 1 in 50 | $1,200 | 7.2% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× | | [World Championships 2023 Paradise Resort Full Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/world-championships-2023-paradise-resort-full-set) | 1 in 50 | $1,000 | 6.0% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [EX Dragon: FireFang Theme Deck other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ex-dragon-firefang-theme-deck) | 1 in 50 | $385 | 2.3% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× | | [Silver Tempest Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-tempest-booster-box) | 1 in 50 | $350 | 2.1% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [Urza's Saga Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/urzas-saga-booster) | 1 in 50 | $175 | 1.0% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× | | [Rivals of Ixalan Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rivals-of-ixalan-booster-box) | 1 in 33 | $85.00 | 0.8% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.28× | | [Squirtle (MEW 007) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squirtle-mew-007) | 10.0% | $65.00 | 1.9% | 9 | 7.8 | 1.15× | | [Seventh Edition Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/seventh-edition-booster) | 10.0% | $50.00 | 1.5% | 6 | 7.8 | 0.77× | | [Twilight Masquerade Elite Trainer Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/twilight-masquerade-elite-trainer-box) | 10.0% | $31.49 | 0.9% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× | | [Bulbasaur (svG 050) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-svg-050) | 10.0% | $17.00 | 0.5% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× | | [Magic 2011 Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/magic-2011-booster) | 40.0% | $8.25 | 1.0% | 37 | 31.2 | 1.19× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Gengar (WEB 047) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gengar-web-047) [KICK/JUSTSAN666](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/KICK%2FJUSTSAN666) $373 $1,870 5.01x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC [Gengar (WEB 047) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gengar-web-047) Hidden $373 $1,870 5.01x 2026-11-03 16:54 UTC [EX Delta Species Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ex-delta-species-booster) [Arrrbaccos](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Arrrbaccos) $373 $1,850 4.95x 2026-11-05 14:14 UTC [Foreign Limited: Starter Deck other](https://gambatracker.com/items/foreign-limited-starter-deck) Hidden $373 $1,200 3.21x 2026-11-03 16:54 UTC [Foreign Limited: Starter Deck other](https://gambatracker.com/items/foreign-limited-starter-deck) Hidden $373 $1,200 3.21x 2026-11-03 16:54 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=wildcard) [Magic 2011 Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/magic-2011-booster) Hidden $373 $8.25 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC [Magic 2011 Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/magic-2011-booster) Hidden $373 $8.25 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC [Magic 2011 Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/magic-2011-booster) Hidden $373 $8.25 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC [Twilight Masquerade Elite Trainer Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/twilight-masquerade-elite-trainer-box) Hidden $373 $31.49 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC [Magic 2011 Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/magic-2011-booster) Hidden $373 $8.25 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC [Gengar (WEB 047) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gengar-web-047) [KICK/JUSTSAN666](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/KICK%2FJUSTSAN666) $373 $1,870 5.01x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC [Magic 2011 Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/magic-2011-booster) Hidden $373 $8.25 0.02x 2026-11-07 03:49 UTC [Bulbasaur (svG 050) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-svg-050) Hidden $373 $17.00 0.05x 2026-11-07 03:49 UTC [Magic 2011 Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/magic-2011-booster) Hidden $373 $8.25 0.02x 2026-11-07 03:49 UTC [Magic 2011 Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/magic-2011-booster) Hidden $373 $8.25 0.02x 2026-11-07 03:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $373 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $1,870 (5.01x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt