--- title: "Winding Down case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Winding Down ($2.67) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.36% from 9 items with odds, observed 80.75% over 5,531 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winding-down rendered: 2026-11-11T14:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Winding Down](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winding-down) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Winding Down A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winding-down?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winding-down?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winding-down) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winding-down?window=all) Price · $2.67 Advertised RTP · 89.36% · EV $2.39 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.75% · 5,531 openings, odds method Variance · 63.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 306 openings · below min 7 days · 82.41% ±22.45 4,844 openings 30 days · 80.75% ±21.01 5,531 openings since tracking started · 80.75% ±21.01 5,531 openings 25.5% 115.5% 205.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winding-down?window=24h) | 306 | 115.54% ±89.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winding-down?window=7d) | 4,844 | 82.41% ±22.5 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winding-down) | 5,531 | 80.75% ±21.0 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winding-down?window=all) | 5,531 | 80.75% ±21.0 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,531 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Casio G-Shock Tiffany Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-tiffany-blue) | 1 in 1,000 | $400 | 16.8% | 3 | 5.5 | 0.54× | | [Casio G-Shock DW-D5600TD-3 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-dw-d5600td-3) | 1 in 400 | $250 | 26.2% | 13 | 13.8 | 0.94× | | [Apple Watch SE (2nd Gen) \[GPS 40mm\], Midnight Aluminum other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-se-2nd-gen-gps-40mm-midnight-aluminum) | 1 in 667 | $235 | 14.8% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.08× | | [Casio G-Shock LTP-V300D-2A other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-ltp-v300d-2a) | 1 in 250 | $89.00 | 14.9% | 21 | 22.1 | 0.95× | | [Casio G-Shock MTP-1302D-7A1V other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-mtp-1302d-7a1v) | 1 in 250 | $72.00 | 12.1% | 20 | 22.1 | 0.90× | | [SpongeBob Watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spongebob-watch) | 1 in 200 | $25.00 | 5.2% | 35 | 27.7 | 1.27× | | [Amazon Essentials Men's Easy to Read Strap Watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amazon-essentials-mens-easy-to-read-strap-watch) | 1 in 200 | $23.00 | 4.8% | 23 | 27.7 | 0.83× | | [Casio MQ24 Series other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-mq24-series) | 1 in 143 | $14.99 | 4.4% | 36 | 38.7 | 0.93× | | [Watch Crown other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-crown) | 97.0% | $0.02 | 0.8% | 5,371 | 5365.1 | 1.00× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Casio G-Shock Tiffany Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-tiffany-blue) Hidden $2.67 $400 149.8x 2026-11-09 18:18 UTC [Casio G-Shock Tiffany Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-tiffany-blue) Hidden $2.67 $400 149.8x 2026-11-08 11:28 UTC [Casio G-Shock Tiffany Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-tiffany-blue) Hidden $2.67 $400 149.8x 2026-11-06 19:32 UTC [Casio G-Shock DW-D5600TD-3 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-dw-d5600td-3) Hidden $2.67 $250 93.63x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [Casio G-Shock DW-D5600TD-3 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-dw-d5600td-3) Hidden $2.67 $250 93.63x 2026-11-11 00:58 UTC [Casio G-Shock DW-D5600TD-3 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-dw-d5600td-3) [GlitterMegs- Code DGN](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/GlitterMegs-%20Code%20DGN) $2.67 $250 93.63x 2026-11-10 01:07 UTC [Casio G-Shock DW-D5600TD-3 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-dw-d5600td-3) Hidden $2.67 $250 93.63x 2026-11-08 21:29 UTC [Casio G-Shock DW-D5600TD-3 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-dw-d5600td-3) Hidden $2.67 $250 93.63x 2026-11-08 20:37 UTC [Casio G-Shock DW-D5600TD-3 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-dw-d5600td-3) Hidden $2.67 $250 93.63x 2026-11-08 14:10 UTC [Casio G-Shock DW-D5600TD-3 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-dw-d5600td-3) Hidden $2.67 $250 93.63x 2026-11-08 05:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=winding-down) [Watch Crown other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-crown) Hidden $2.67 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [Casio G-Shock DW-D5600TD-3 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-dw-d5600td-3) Hidden $2.67 $250 93.63x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [Watch Crown other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-crown) Hidden $2.67 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [Watch Crown other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-crown) [Unique Skunk](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Unique%20Skunk) $2.67 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [Watch Crown other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-crown) Hidden $2.67 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:16 UTC [Watch Crown other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-crown) Hidden $2.67 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:16 UTC [Watch Crown other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-crown) Hidden $2.67 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:16 UTC [Watch Crown other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-crown) Hidden $2.67 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:16 UTC [Watch Crown other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-crown) Hidden $2.67 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:16 UTC [Watch Crown other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-crown) [Gentle Giraffe](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Gentle%20Giraffe) $2.67 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.67 | 89.36% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $400 (149.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.36 on average: an expected loss of $10.64 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt