---
title: "Winter Luxe case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Winter Luxe ($149.47) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 106.11% over 68 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winter-luxe
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Winter Luxe](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winter-luxe)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Winter Luxe

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winter-luxe?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winter-luxe?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winter-luxe) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winter-luxe?window=all)

Price · $149.47

Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $133.78 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 106.11% · 68 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 24 openings · below min

7 days · 62 openings · below min

30 days · 68 openings · below min

since tracking started · 68 openings · below min

-0.5% 79.3% 159.0%

**Small sample.** 68 openings and 7.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winter-luxe?window=24h) | 24 | 68.94% ±78.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winter-luxe?window=7d) | 62 | 109.42% ±48.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winter-luxe) | 68 | 106.11% ±46.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winter-luxe?window=all) | 68 | 106.11% ±46.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Diamond Snowflake Earrings other](https://gambatracker.com/items/diamond-snowflake-earrings) | 1 in 133 | $3,050 | 17.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [OVO x Canada Goose Reflective Scarf other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ovo-x-canada-goose-reflective-scarf) | 1 in 100 | $866 | 6.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [10 ft- Pre-Lit Christmas Tree other](https://gambatracker.com/items/10-ft-pre-lit-christmas-tree) | 1 in 100 | $650 | 4.9% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Floral Skull Christmas Ornament other](https://gambatracker.com/items/floral-skull-christmas-ornament) | 1 in 57 | $470 | 6.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.84× |
| [Du Barry Reflector Christmas Ornament other](https://gambatracker.com/items/du-barry-reflector-christmas-ornament) | 1 in 33 | $382 | 8.6% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× |
| [Trudon Fir Christmas Tree Scented Candle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/trudon-fir-christmas-tree-scented-candle) | 1 in 29 | $330 | 8.6% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [Waterford Wishes Happy Celebrations Toasting Flute other](https://gambatracker.com/items/waterford-wishes-happy-celebrations-toasting-flute) | 1 in 20 | $250 | 9.3% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.47× |
| [24K Gold-Plated Garland Christmas Ornament other](https://gambatracker.com/items/24k-gold-plated-garland-christmas-ornament) | 1 in 20 | $230 | 8.6% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.76× |
| [48 in. Large Pre-Lit Christmas Wreath with 200 Warm White LED Lights other](https://gambatracker.com/items/48-in-large-pre-lit-christmas-wreath-with-200-warm-white-led-lights) | 1 in 20 | $215 | 8.0% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.47× |
| [Holiday Wishes 16 piece Dinnerware Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/holiday-wishes-16-piece-dinnerware-set) | 1 in 20 | $130 | 4.9% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| [Sephora Advent Calendar 2024 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sephora-advent-calendar-2024) | 1 in 17 | $100 | 4.5% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.47× |
| [Godiva Chocolatier Dark Chocolate Truffles other](https://gambatracker.com/items/godiva-chocolatier-dark-chocolate-truffles) | 1 in 15 | $85.00 | 4.1% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.90× |
| [120MM Musical Santa w/Reindeer Snow Globe other](https://gambatracker.com/items/120mm-musical-santa-w-reindeer-snow-globe) | 1 in 15 | $62.00 | 3.0% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.45× |
| [Santa Claus Wine Stopper other](https://gambatracker.com/items/santa-claus-wine-stopper) | 10.0% | $20.00 | 1.5% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.88× |
| [Funko Pop! Ad Icons: Coca-Cola Santa other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-ad-icons-coca-cola-santa) | 10.0% | $20.00 | 1.5% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.88× |
| [Smart Snowflake Lights other](https://gambatracker.com/items/smart-snowflake-lights) | 10.0% | $15.00 | 1.1% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.88× |
| [2-pc. Triumph Crystal Candlestick Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2-pc-triumph-crystal-candlestick-set) | 10.0% | $15.00 | 1.1% | 8 | 6.8 | 1.18× |
| [The Christmas Movie Cookbook other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-christmas-movie-cookbook) | 10.0% | $7.00 | 0.5% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.88× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Diamond Snowflake Earrings other](https://gambatracker.com/items/diamond-snowflake-earrings) Hidden $149 $3,050 20.41x 2026-11-07 18:45 UTC

[10 ft- Pre-Lit Christmas Tree other](https://gambatracker.com/items/10-ft-pre-lit-christmas-tree) Hidden $149 $650 4.35x 2026-11-07 18:45 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=winter-luxe)

[Funko Pop! Ad Icons: Coca-Cola Santa other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-ad-icons-coca-cola-santa) Hidden $149 $20.00 0.13x 2026-11-10 18:52 UTC

[2-pc. Triumph Crystal Candlestick Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2-pc-triumph-crystal-candlestick-set) Hidden $149 $15.00 0.10x 2026-11-10 18:52 UTC

[Santa Claus Wine Stopper other](https://gambatracker.com/items/santa-claus-wine-stopper) Hidden $149 $20.00 0.13x 2026-11-10 18:52 UTC

[Smart Snowflake Lights other](https://gambatracker.com/items/smart-snowflake-lights) Hidden $149 $15.00 0.10x 2026-11-10 18:52 UTC

[120MM Musical Santa w/Reindeer Snow Globe other](https://gambatracker.com/items/120mm-musical-santa-w-reindeer-snow-globe) Hidden $149 $62.00 0.41x 2026-11-10 18:52 UTC

[Holiday Wishes 16 piece Dinnerware Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/holiday-wishes-16-piece-dinnerware-set) [Kick/PapaGambles $20k+ Rewards](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Kick%2FPapaGambles%20%2420k%2B%20Rewards) $149 $130 0.87x 2026-11-10 18:52 UTC

[The Christmas Movie Cookbook other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-christmas-movie-cookbook) Hidden $149 $7.00 0.05x 2026-11-10 18:51 UTC

[Sephora Advent Calendar 2024 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sephora-advent-calendar-2024) Hidden $149 $100 0.67x 2026-11-10 18:51 UTC

[Trudon Fir Christmas Tree Scented Candle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/trudon-fir-christmas-tree-scented-candle) Hidden $149 $330 2.21x 2026-11-10 18:51 UTC

[Du Barry Reflector Christmas Ornament other](https://gambatracker.com/items/du-barry-reflector-christmas-ornament) Hidden $149 $382 2.56x 2026-11-10 18:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $149 | 89.50% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $3,050 (20.41x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt