--- title: "Winter Royale case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Winter Royale ($50.55) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 8 items with odds, observed 104.55% over 289 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winter-royale rendered: 2026-11-11T18:15Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Winter Royale](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winter-royale) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Winter Royale A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winter-royale?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winter-royale?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winter-royale) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winter-royale?window=all) Price · $50.55 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $45.24 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 104.55% · 289 openings, odds method Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 100.87% ±25.53 265 openings 30 days · 104.55% ±24.45 289 openings since tracking started · 104.55% ±24.45 289 openings -0.5% 101.5% 203.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winter-royale?window=24h) | 16 | 99.17% ±103.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winter-royale?window=7d) | 265 | 100.87% ±25.5 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winter-royale) | 289 | 104.55% ±24.4 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/winter-royale?window=all) | 289 | 104.55% ±24.4 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 289 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Fear of God Athletics Crossbody Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-athletics-crossbody-bag) | 1 in 100 | $700 | 15.5% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× | | [Palm Angels Teddy Bear T-shirt Black (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palm-angels-teddy-bear-t-shirt-black-us-l) | 1 in 67 | $600 | 19.9% | 7 | 4.3 | 1.61× | | [Supreme Leather Waist Bag Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-leather-waist-bag-red) | 1 in 28 | $250 | 19.9% | 17 | 10.4 | 1.63× | | [$100 Steam Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-steam-gift-card) | 1 in 25 | $105 | 9.3% | 13 | 11.6 | 1.12× | | [VALORANT Basketball Shorts other](https://gambatracker.com/items/valorant-basketball-shorts) | 16.5% | $50.00 | 18.2% | 36 | 47.7 | 0.75× | | [SpongeBob Watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spongebob-watch) | 18.4% | $25.00 | 10.2% | 53 | 53.2 | 1.00× | | [Jujutsu Kaisen 0 Paperback other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jujutsu-kaisen-0-paperback) | 21.0% | $7.10 | 3.3% | 61 | 60.7 | 1.01× | | [Supreme Burberry Box Logo Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-burberry-box-logo-sticker) | 34.0% | $5.00 | 3.8% | 100 | 98.3 | 1.02× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Fear of God Athletics Crossbody Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-athletics-crossbody-bag) [jack](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/jack) $50.55 $700 13.85x 2026-11-09 03:02 UTC [Fear of God Athletics Crossbody Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-athletics-crossbody-bag) Hidden $50.55 $700 13.85x 2026-11-08 20:22 UTC [Palm Angels Teddy Bear T-shirt Black (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palm-angels-teddy-bear-t-shirt-black-us-l) [Nie](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Nie) $50.55 $600 11.87x 2026-11-10 05:53 UTC [Palm Angels Teddy Bear T-shirt Black (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palm-angels-teddy-bear-t-shirt-black-us-l) Hidden $50.55 $600 11.87x 2026-11-07 23:10 UTC [Palm Angels Teddy Bear T-shirt Black (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palm-angels-teddy-bear-t-shirt-black-us-l) Hidden $50.55 $600 11.87x 2026-11-07 23:10 UTC [Palm Angels Teddy Bear T-shirt Black (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palm-angels-teddy-bear-t-shirt-black-us-l) [✪ DubbleuJB](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/%E2%9C%AA%20DubbleuJB) $50.55 $600 11.87x 2026-11-05 23:01 UTC [Palm Angels Teddy Bear T-shirt Black (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palm-angels-teddy-bear-t-shirt-black-us-l) Hidden $50.55 $600 11.87x 2026-11-05 15:27 UTC [Palm Angels Teddy Bear T-shirt Black (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palm-angels-teddy-bear-t-shirt-black-us-l) Hidden $50.55 $600 11.87x 2026-11-05 04:56 UTC [Palm Angels Teddy Bear T-shirt Black (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palm-angels-teddy-bear-t-shirt-black-us-l) Hidden $50.55 $600 11.87x 2026-11-03 00:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=winter-royale) [Supreme Burberry Box Logo Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-burberry-box-logo-sticker) Hidden $50.55 $5.00 0.10x 2026-11-11 09:06 UTC [Supreme Burberry Box Logo Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-burberry-box-logo-sticker) Hidden $50.55 $5.00 0.10x 2026-11-11 09:06 UTC [Supreme Leather Waist Bag Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-leather-waist-bag-red) Hidden $50.55 $250 4.95x 2026-11-11 09:06 UTC [Supreme Burberry Box Logo Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-burberry-box-logo-sticker) Hidden $50.55 $5.00 0.10x 2026-11-11 09:06 UTC [Supreme Burberry Box Logo Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-burberry-box-logo-sticker) Hidden $50.55 $5.00 0.10x 2026-11-11 09:06 UTC [Supreme Burberry Box Logo Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-burberry-box-logo-sticker) [ditmemajak](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/ditmemajak) $50.55 $5.00 0.10x 2026-11-11 09:06 UTC [$100 Steam Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-steam-gift-card) Hidden $50.55 $105 2.08x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC [Supreme Burberry Box Logo Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-burberry-box-logo-sticker) Hidden $50.55 $5.00 0.10x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC [Jujutsu Kaisen 0 Paperback other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jujutsu-kaisen-0-paperback) Hidden $50.55 $7.10 0.14x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC [SpongeBob Watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spongebob-watch) Hidden $50.55 $25.00 0.49x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $50.55 | 89.50% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $700 (13.85x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt