--- title: "Wizard's Fortune case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Wizard's Fortune ($39.94) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 90.79% over 42 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wizards-fortune rendered: 2026-11-11T19:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Wizard's Fortune](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wizards-fortune) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Wizard's Fortune A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wizards-fortune?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wizards-fortune?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wizards-fortune) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wizards-fortune?window=all) Price · $39.94 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $35.74 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.79% · 42 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 32 openings · below min 30 days · 42 openings · below min since tracking started · 42 openings · below min 55.0% 99.5% 144.0% **Small sample.** 42 openings and 6.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wizards-fortune?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wizards-fortune?window=7d) | 32 | 103.04% ±40.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wizards-fortune) | 42 | 90.79% ±35.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/wizards-fortune?window=all) | 42 | 90.79% ±35.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Noble Collection - Harry Potter - The Triwizard Cup other](https://gambatracker.com/items/noble-collection-harry-potter-the-triwizard-cup) | 1 in 100 | $225 | 6.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [LEGO Harry Potter Hogwarts Castle and Grounds 76419 Building Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-harry-potter-hogwarts-castle-and-grounds-76419-building-set) | 1 in 50 | $215 | 12.0% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× | | [The Noble Collection Harry Potter - Sorcerer's Stone other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-noble-collection-harry-potter-sorcerers-stone) | 1 in 40 | $152 | 10.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× | | [Wizarding World of Harry Potter Hermione Granger Interactive Wand other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wizarding-world-of-harry-potter-hermione-granger-interactive-wand) | 1 in 33 | $96.00 | 8.1% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× | | [LEGO Harry Potter Hagrid’s Hut: An Unexpected Visit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-harry-potter-hagrids-hut-an-unexpected-visit) | 1 in 33 | $90.00 | 7.6% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× | | [The Noble Collection NN7741 Collectible, Multi Coloured other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-noble-collection-nn7741-collectible-multi-coloured) | 1 in 33 | $87.00 | 7.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [Noble Collection - Harry Potter - Hermione's Time Turner other](https://gambatracker.com/items/noble-collection-harry-potter-hermiones-time-turner) | 1 in 20 | $68.00 | 9.5% | 6 | 2.7 | 2.22× | | [Harry Potter Box Set: The Complete Collection - Paperback other](https://gambatracker.com/items/harry-potter-box-set-the-complete-collection-paperback) | 1 in 25 | $60.00 | 6.7% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.39× | | [The Noble Collection Harry Potter Wizard Chess Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-noble-collection-harry-potter-wizard-chess-set) | 1 in 20 | $44.00 | 6.2% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [Hasbro Gaming Clue: Wizarding World Harry Potter Edition Board Game other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hasbro-gaming-clue-wizarding-world-harry-potter-edition-board-game) | 1 in 20 | $37.40 | 5.2% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× | | [Harry Potter Levitating Golden Snitch Light, Touch Activated Desk Lamp other](https://gambatracker.com/items/harry-potter-levitating-golden-snitch-light-touch-activated-desk-lamp) | 1 in 20 | $33.00 | 4.6% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [Harry Potter Ravenclaw House Knit Winter Scarf other](https://gambatracker.com/items/harry-potter-ravenclaw-house-knit-winter-scarf) | 1 in 20 | $25.00 | 3.5% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× | | [Harry Potter Gryffindor Team Seeker Hogwarts Quidditch T-Shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/harry-potter-gryffindor-team-seeker-hogwarts-quidditch-t-shirt) | 1 in 13 | $23.00 | 4.8% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.73× | | [Harry Potter Metal Bookmark with Hanging Golden Snitch Charm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/harry-potter-metal-bookmark-with-hanging-golden-snitch-charm) | 1 in 13 | $17.00 | 3.6% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.23× | | [Squishmallows Original 10-Inch Harry Potter Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallows-original-10-inch-harry-potter-plush) | 1 in 13 | $15.00 | 3.1% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.73× | | [Harry Potter™ Ravenclaw Rubber Bracelet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/harry-potter-ravenclaw-rubber-bracelet) | 10.0% | $2.50 | 0.7% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× | | [Then Dobby Must Do It Sir Postcard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/then-dobby-must-do-it-sir-postcard) | 11.0% | $0.50 | 0.2% | 2 | 5.9 | 0.34× | | [Harry Potter Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/harry-potter-sticker) | 13.0% | $0.03 | 0.0% | 6 | 7.0 | 0.85× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=wizards-fortune) [Squishmallows Original 10-Inch Harry Potter Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallows-original-10-inch-harry-potter-plush) Hidden $39.94 $15.00 0.38x 2026-11-07 20:26 UTC [Noble Collection - Harry Potter - Hermione's Time Turner other](https://gambatracker.com/items/noble-collection-harry-potter-hermiones-time-turner) [Mysterious Dolphin](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Mysterious%20Dolphin) $39.94 $68.00 1.70x 2026-11-07 20:26 UTC [Harry Potter Gryffindor Team Seeker Hogwarts Quidditch T-Shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/harry-potter-gryffindor-team-seeker-hogwarts-quidditch-t-shirt) Hidden $39.94 $23.00 0.58x 2026-11-07 03:19 UTC [The Noble Collection Harry Potter Wizard Chess Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-noble-collection-harry-potter-wizard-chess-set) Hidden $39.94 $44.00 1.10x 2026-11-07 03:19 UTC [Harry Potter Gryffindor Team Seeker Hogwarts Quidditch T-Shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/harry-potter-gryffindor-team-seeker-hogwarts-quidditch-t-shirt) [Blu02](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Blu02) $39.94 $23.00 0.58x 2026-11-07 03:19 UTC [Squishmallows Original 10-Inch Harry Potter Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallows-original-10-inch-harry-potter-plush) Hidden $39.94 $15.00 0.38x 2026-11-06 09:28 UTC [Squishmallows Original 10-Inch Harry Potter Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallows-original-10-inch-harry-potter-plush) Hidden $39.94 $15.00 0.38x 2026-11-06 09:28 UTC [Harry Potter™ Ravenclaw Rubber Bracelet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/harry-potter-ravenclaw-rubber-bracelet) Hidden $39.94 $2.50 0.06x 2026-11-06 09:28 UTC [Harry Potter Levitating Golden Snitch Light, Touch Activated Desk Lamp other](https://gambatracker.com/items/harry-potter-levitating-golden-snitch-light-touch-activated-desk-lamp) [Henzair](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Henzair) $39.94 $33.00 0.83x 2026-11-06 09:28 UTC [The Noble Collection Harry Potter Wizard Chess Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-noble-collection-harry-potter-wizard-chess-set) Hidden $39.94 $44.00 1.10x 2026-11-06 07:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $39.94 | 89.49% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt